Anti Lemming : Housing-Krise erhöht die US-Arbeitslosenzahlen
Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zu den US-amerikanischen Erstanträgen auf Arbeitslosenhilfe ("Initial Jobless Claims") für die Vorwoche: Die Zahl der Erstanträge ist in den USA auf 332.000 zurückgegangen. Erwartet wurden 320.000 bis 325.000 neue Anträge nach zuvor 359.000 (revidiert von 357.000).
Die aktuellen Zahlen liegen somit um 7000 bis 12.000 höher als erwartet. Letzte Woche waren sie um 44.000 bis 49.000 höher als erwartet (die obige Aufwärtsrevision auf 349.000 schon eingerechnet).
Jobless Claims May Show Housing Fallout
By Tony Crescenzi
2/22/2007 9:21 AM EST
Jobless claims fell 27,000 from a 16-month high to 332,000 in the week ended Feb. 10, holding at a fairly high level compared with the six-month average of 317,000. In fact, the past two weeks are the worst for any two weeks during the past 16 months.
There will be many theories about why claims have suddenly moved upward, with most of these theories centering upon the housing market. There has yet to be any meaningful loss of jobs in either the construction trade or in the mortgage financing industry, so it follows that many in the markets continue to expect significant fallout from the weakening of the housing market.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the job losses in the construction trade during housing downturns dating back to 1973 averaged 16%, which would amount to about 1.2 million jobs in the current environment. There are many reasons to believe that the figure could be smaller this time, chiefly the shortage of skilled workers that existed at the top of the housing cycle and the offset occurring from the nonresidential sector, but it is still likely that job losses will mount in the sector once current construction projects are completed. The claims figure will suggest to some that this process is now under way.
One factor that could be driving claims and which often has large impact is the weather. Warmer weather in early winter may have delayed layoffs until the weather worsened. Time will tell on this front.