Mogo Finance Technology stock and Credit Services market discussion, news, and analysis from Canada's largest community of active investors Q2/18: Fifth Consecutive Quarter of Accelerating Core Revenue Growth
Nik Priebe, CFA • Financial Technology (416) 359-4293
Bottom Line: Mogo reported a fifth sequential quarter of accelerating core revenue growth and a beat on adjusted EBITDA. Overall, we view the results positively and believe that the persistence of the growth in subscription and service revenue further reinforces our thesis on the stock. We are reiterating Outperform (speculative) rating and increasing our target price to $7/sh. Key Points
Adjusted EBITDA came in above expectation. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $0.7 million, above our forecast of $nil. The beat was largely attributable to better-than-expected revenue growth. Adjusted EPS of -$0.23, however, was essentially in line with our estimate of -$0.22, owing to higher-than-expected depreciation.
Fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating core revenue growth. Total revenue increased 34% y/y, driven by core revenue growth of 64%. This was slightly above our estimate, and was supported by 105% growth in subscription and service income. As Mogo continues to deliver strong top-line growth and further shifts the revenue mix towards subscription and services, we expect investors to begin to acknowledge the growth profile which may support a positive re-rate and the convergence of valuation towards peers.
Loan growth comes in slightly ahead of expectations. The gross loan portfolio increased 5.4% q/q, versus our expectation of a modest decline owing to the deliberate wind-down of the legacy short-term loans business. Although the value of the short-term loan book declined in the quarter, the attrition rate was more modest than expected. However, management indicated that they expect to fully exit the short-term loans business by Q3, which was faster than we had previously anticipated. This faster-than-expected wind-down reduces our earnings estimates. However, the strategic intention to wind down the short-term loans business had been well communicated to investors previously.
Raising our target price to $7/sh. As Mogo continues to deliver on sequential growth in subscription and service revenue, we expect investors to increasingly take note which may support a positive re-rate in the shares. We believe that Q2 results gave us further confidence that recent growth may be sustained, and we have raised our target price accordingly. Our $7 target price represents approximately 2.5x NTM net revenue, which remains significantly below peers.
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