- Goldman Sachs
Posted on July 25, 2013
RARE EARTHS: In 2016, cerium will remain as the most in demand rare earth element, with 43% per cent of sales. Lanthanum follows with a 21% share, neodymium 19%, yttrium 8%, and the rest divided up the remainder.
Goldman charts the fall in REE prices that began in the third quarter of 2011, and prices for both heavies and lights fell again in the six months to June 2013. The analysts expect limited upside in the next few years and some producers will have to operate below capacity for a period of time in order to prevent a growing surplus. “We also believe that the respective basket prices will diverge over time, with light REE trading close to cost support and heavy REE benefiting from scarcity prices,” the report continues.
In 2011, the light REE basket averaged $706/kg. In 2012 that came back to $463/kg and Goldman estimates the average for 2013 will be $232/kg. But 2014, 2015 and 2016 will not be much better, with forecasts of $243/kg over those three years. The LREE basket comprises lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, samarium and europium.
As for the heavy REE, the basket hit $1,027/kg in 2011, came back to $785/kg last year and will be an estimated $432/kg this year. But gradual improvement is seen: $475/kg for 2014, $499/kg in 2015 and $524/kg in 2016.Incidentally, the HREE basket is based on only gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium and yttrium; lack of pricing data meant Goldman had to exclude holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium and lutetium.
As for the HREE, Goldman Sachs believes that the high prices of these elements “will induce (a) additional demand destruction via thrifting and substitution in applications such as magnets and/or (b) new production capacity to come on line, assuming project developers can develop the appropriate technologies to process heavy REE deposits on a commercial basis.”
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