Elk Creek is by no means the only new niobium source. In fact, some deposits are further advanced and have a greater capacity than Elk Creek. The Taseko Mines' (TGB) niobium deposit, known as Aley, is expected to produce 9,000 tons of Niobium per year over its 24-year mine life. Taseko Mines is currently working on a feasibility study for the project, and, if the study is successful, the company could begin construction on the mine as early as 2026. Furthermore, Taseko Mines has a tad more than $7 million in the bank together with revenue from their other mining operations, so there is less risk of a large equity raise.
Then we must consider current suppliers and whether there is the possibility that CBMM's mine, Araxa, could begin to wind down. This is far from likely. According to a recent article, it would appear that "Brazil has approximately 98% of the known reserves in the world, followed by Canada and Australia. A survey by the National Mining Department (DNPM), which was superseded in 2018 by the National Mining Agency (ANM), placed the proven reserves in Brazil at 842.4 million metric tons. Of the total reserves in the country, 75% are in Araxa". In other words, Araxa can increase production still further and still be in operation for many decades.
It is believed that the Elk Creek project will produce around 7,055 tonnes of ferroniobium as the primary product plus 102 tonnes of scandium trioxide and 12,000 tonnes of titanium dioxide annually over its 38-year operating life. However, to develop this deposit, the company has stated that there will likely be an equity raise, leading to share dilution for existing shareholders. Once the money is raised, according to the feasibility study (page 517), it could be more than 3 years before the mine is in production and the company begins to see some revenue.
In my view, the world's leading producers can easily ramp up production to meet demand thus negating the requirement for additional supplies.
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