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Antares Pharma (ATRS) has been in full-out rally mode lately, hitting another 52 week high intra-day Tuesday of $5.58, before being bear raided down to a low of $5, then closing at $5.26, down $0.04 (0.75%).
Also from my YouTube channel and various articles here on Seeking Alpha, I predicted that Antares would see a stock price of $5 a share in July, based on warrant expiration which would lead to short covering, and an earlier than expected New Drug Application (NDA) for VIBEX MTX. The history of the current Antares management has been to under-promise and over-deliver. Last year, the company stated that the NDA for VIBEX MTX could be filed around this time, but later moved its target date for to February 2013. From the Q1 earnings conference call (CC) of this year, CEO Paul Wotton stated that Antares would reveal in December of this year, the exact drug its Vibex QS1 would be comprised of. However, during the company's last CC from May, it was revealed months in advance that the Vibex QS1 would be a quick shot low Testosterone (LowT) treatment--Antares management shows a clear history of engaging in under-promising and over-delivering.
Other possible factors for the large and sustained price appreciation could be:
- A deal for Nestragel might be close to being announced. Nestragel is a gel formulation designed to stop ovulation in women--birth control. However as a poster named LokoDaug from the Antares Yahoo board has speculated, Nestragel might be used to address males - possibly being a form of male birth control, designed to temporarily sterilize men. While this would be an exciting proposition for Antares, I am not sure the speculation is correct, but it is something to be considered for an explanation for why the Antares stock price is soaring.
- Revelation of the unknown mystery drug Antares and Pfizer (PFE) are partnered in is another strong possibility for the stock price breakout. Another Seeking Alpha author speculates that this unknown drug may be a Lipitor Gel. This cannot be correct as Antares can longer develop new gel formulations, as per its agreement with Ferring Pharma, who Antares sold the rights to its gel tech in 2007. This sales agreement flatly states that all rights to its gel technology now belong to Ferring; only currently developed gels as of 2007 remain the property of Antares. This only leaves Antares rights to Nestragel and an Advil (Ibuprofen) gel.
Because the deal is with Pfizer's over the counter human health division (OTC), there are really only 2 possibilities for this mystery drug - the Advil Gel, or a fast melt Advil tablet. Either one of these drugs would be a significant revenue booster for Antares, so the revelation of this mystery drug could be in part why the stock price is rallying.
Lastly, a tender offer for the company might be in play here. I first heard some back channel rumors in January of this year that Antares and Pfizer could have a hand-shake type of deal for Pfizer to acquire Antares at some point within the next year. While rumors like these are very hard to confirm - if not impossible, this could be another explanation. Perhaps the best explanation for the price jump is the fact that Antares recently moved to the Nasdaq from the NYSE Amex, and is getting the proper speculation value it truly deserves
Regardless, Antares is my largest holding, as I personally own 86,200 shares at an average price of $2.25 a share, with no plans to sell anytime soon. I originally made this investment with a minimum 3 to 5 year time frame to cash out. I strongly believe Antares is a ground floor business opportunity - an investment, not just a trade. My business modeling of Antares shows me the company will likely be taking in over 1 billion dollars in revenue by 2016, so I speculate a market cap by then to be approaching 5 billion dollars-- $50 a share. After all the hype and speculation has run its course, really all that matters on Wall Street are earnings and profits - company execution.
If Antares is acquired by a larger pharma before then fine, but it better be for a share price over $13. If it;s anything less, I would feel management would be slighting the long term shareholder of the company.
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