November is the month of Thanksgiving in the US, and if historical trends hold up, we’re about to see a price recovery that producers will appreciate.
Before I dive into the evidence, I would first like to apologize for being wrong in September. I guess my crystal ball was a little fuzzy when I suggested that we were about to see a downturn in prices. US ethanol prices for four consecutive years had lowered in September, but thanks to crop concerns and rallying corn prices, that streak was broken. Similarly, we saw another minimal gain in October.
So let’s try this again.
Across the last four years, the Platts Chicago Argo benchmark ethanol assessment has averaged a 37.5-cent rise in November.
Before you get too excited about that, understand that the bulk of those gains were made in the past two years. In 2014, the assessment rallied 98 cents from $1.82/gal on Halloween to close out November at $2.80/gal. In a spooky, scary coincidence, the assessment was also $1.82/gal on Halloween 2013 before gaining 59 cents to finish November at $2.41/gal.
The previous two years, however, we saw minimal declines of 2 and 5 cents, finishing at $2.41/gal in 2012 (another coincidence) and $2.72/gal in 2011.
Considering the Argo assessment finished this October at $1.6050/gal, what kind of trend should we expect to see in November 2015? |
Thread abonnieren
im Mai 2016 wieder ein.
