Indonesian Coal Mining Shares Surge as China Exports Decline
By Michele Batchelor
More Photos/Details
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Coal producers in Indonesia and Thailand are booming, and so are their shares, as larger competitors in China turn from exporting to supplying the domestic market.
China became a net importer of coal for the first time this year. Japan and South Korea also are turning to Jakarta-based PT Bumi Resources and Thailand's Banpu Pcl, both with mines in Indonesia, the biggest source of power-station coal.
``Coal is a very new sector and that's because of the structural change in China,'' said Badung Tariono, who manages the $647 million ABN Amro Energy Fund in Amsterdam and holds Bumi shares. ``If you believe in the China story and demand for energy will grow in line with the economy, it's a no-brainer.''
While Bumi shares have more than tripled in value this year, investors say there is plenty of room for further gains because they are still cheap. Bumi, Asia's third-largest coal producer by sales, and rival Banpu, Thailand's biggest coal miner, are valued at less than half the industry average.
Analysts at UBS AG estimate the shift in the Chinese coal industry has resulted in a loss of 25 million metric tons from the Asian market outside the country. That's left Asian consumers short of 11 million tons, the Swiss bank estimates.
``China's move towards net import status has occurred much faster than expected,'' said Daniel Brebner, a London-based commodity analyst at UBS. ``Chinese exports, which have been declining, are unlikely to reverse over the next 12 months.''
Taking Orders
Bumi, whose stock has soared 219 percent this year to 2,875 rupiah, has requests from Chinese buyers for 4 million tons for 2008, an increase of 83 percent from 2007 orders, Peter Ball, vice president of marketing, said on Aug. 14. It supplied 1 million tons of coal to China in 2006.
Banpu, which is up 65 percent this year to 300 baht, is planning an initial public offering for its Indonesian unit to raise funds to expand. Based in Bangkok, it has Chinese orders for 6 million tons for 2008, more than twice what it can supply, said Philip Gasteen, head of marketing and logistics Aug. 14.
Those contracts aren't yet reflected in the companies' share prices, investors argue.
Bumi is valued at 12 times this year's estimated earnings, while Banpu trades at a multiple of 14 times earnings. Singapore- listed Straits Asia Resources Ltd., which plans to spend as much as $400 million buying mines to double production in Indonesia, is trading at a ratio of 17 after doubling in value this year. The shares are at S$1.35.
`Bullish'
They compare with the 30 times average current year estimated earnings for 131 coal producers worldwide, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The stocks ``have been looking bullish with China aggressively on the rise,'' said Nimeesha Takalkar, an analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350 billion worldwide. There's a ``supply-side constraint, which has automatically made the Indonesian coal more attractive,'' Takalkar said.
Thermal coal used for power generation accounted for 87 percent of world coal usage in 2006. Coking coal, used in steel production, made up the rest, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Thermal coal is the fastest-growing energy source as rising oil prices prompt users to switch fuels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Coal's share of total world energy may climb to 28 percent in 2030, from 26 percent in 2004, the agency said in a May 22 report.
Indonesia, Asia's third-largest coal producer, may increase output by 34 percent within three years as Chinese exports drop, Credit Suisse Group said in August.
Following China
One risk is that Indonesia, whose population of about 235 million is roughly equal to Germany, France, the U.K. and Spain combined, might follow China and cut shipments as new power generators increase domestic demand.
The government plans to add 20,000 megawatts of generating capacity, fired by coal, by 2010. That will add as much as 70 million tons to domestic demand annually, according to Indonesia's national coal association. Indonesian utilities consumed 45 million tons of coal last year.
``Indonesia could add 15 million tons of coal to the Asian market this year,'' said UBS analyst Brebner. ``However, it pales in comparison to the 45 million tons or so added in 2006.''
Demand is demand, whether it comes from China, Indonesia or other Asian markets, according to Elan Cohen, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at JPMorgan Private Bank, who helps manage money for clients with at least $50 million.
``A lot of our clients have been investing in Indonesian coal companies,'' he said ``There's a big flow of capital going into the coal mining areas'' in Indonesia.
`Better Story'
What's more, the valuations of Bumi, Banpu and Straits Asia are also half those for Chinese coal producers swept up in a rally that has more than doubled the value of the nation's benchmark CSI 300 Index this year. That makes those companies more attractive to buy, said Greg Kuhnert, who manages about $1 billion in Asian equities, at Investec Asset Management in London.
China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation's largest, is valued at 30 times this year's estimated earnings, while China Coal Energy Co., the second biggest, is at 34 times.
Bumi ``is a better story and looks cheaper than the Chinese ones,'' said Kuhnert, who bought Bumi shares in recent months. |
Thread abonnieren
