JCPenney - Handelsriese auf 30 Jahrestief

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19.11.13 17:03

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage Spaetschichtund heute alle wieder rein....

die schnäpschenjäger(! ;-)   ( 8.88 +0.17 (1.95%). Na hoffentlich sezieren sie morgen die Bilanz nicht zu sehr

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/...y-alcoa-inc-232497011.html

Hedge funds Jana Partners, Highfields Capital and Farallon Capital Management Group have taken positions in J.C. Penney Company, Inc.(NYSE: JCP), ailing department store operator.
, and Glenview Capital, already a big owner, added to its holdings.
Highfields Capital's Jonathon Jacobson bought 3.2 million shares, Jana Partners' Barry Rosenstein as well as Tom Steyer of Farallon bought 500,000 shares each of the firm.  

20.11.13 12:19

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C.Penney, heute Bericht zu III/ 13

butzerle/ Spaetschicht: Fallschirm schon ausgepackt, oder, was meint Ihr was am heutigen Berichtstag so abläuft? Bei wirklichem Rückfall lege ich nach, wie angekündigt dann auf  20 k.  Also, was soll man vorerst glauben?  .... Lieber wär's mir natürlich, wenn's weiter hinauf liefe. Bis bald.

 

20.11.13 13:58
1

7019 Postings, 5788 Tage butzerleich kann das schwer abschätzen.

Denke mal, die Zahlen werden sowieso grottig sein und wichtiger ist der Ausblick. Wenn der Konzern zb verkündet, Finanzierung bis 2015 gesichert, keine weitere Ausgabe von Equity geplant (wäre nach der KE in diesem Jahr auch dreist, gleich wieder die Hand aufzuhalten) und 2014 Cashflow-positiv werden zu wollen - dann geht es weiter aufwärts.

Bin wie schon gesagt an der Seitenlinie, die fast 40% seit meiner Threaderöffnung hätte ich aber gern komplett mitgenommen. Dass es so schnell den Rebound gibt, damit hätte ich nicht gerechnet.  

20.11.13 14:44

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtMahlzeit We present you the earnings

http://www.businessinsider.com/jcpenney-q3-earnings-2013-11


Shares of JCPenney are headed higher in pre-market trading following the release of Q3 earnings results this morning.
The embattled retailer reported an adjusted loss of $1.81 per share in Q3, which may not compare with the consensus estimate for a $1.74 loss per share, as it includes a $0.73 loss per share on tax valuation allowance.

Revenues came in at $2.78 billion, below the consensus $2.80 billion estimate.

Despite a 4.8% drop in same-store sales in Q3, the company believes same-store sales trends will improve in Q4. In October, same-store sales were up 0.9%.

Currently, shares are up 7.7%.

Below is the full text of the release:

Sales Performance Continues to Improve as Company Makes Strides toward a Path to Profitable Growth

PLANO, Texas, November 20, 2013 -- J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) today announced financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended November 2, 2013. Highlights include:

Achieved positive comparable store sales in October

Comparable store sales and gross margin improved sequentially throughout the quarter

Sales on jcp.com increased 24.5% for the quarter

Repaid $200 million from revolving credit facility

Opened 30 new Sephora inside JCPenney locations, bringing total to 446

Myron E. (Mike) Ullman, III, Chief Executive Officer of JCPenney, said, "Our strategies to reconnect with customers are beginning to take hold, and this became increasingly clear as the quarter progressed. This is the result of the tremendous efforts of the associates across our Company to restore the merchandise customers want and deliver an unmatched shopping experience.  We are proud of the Company`s October sales performance, encouraged by the early weeks of November, and believe we are making strides toward a path to long-term profitable growth."

Financial Results

For the third quarter, JCPenney reported net sales of $2.78 billion compared to $2.93 billion in the fiscal third quarter of 2012. Comparable store sales declined 4.8% for the quarter, which represented a sequential improvement of 710 basis points when compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2013. The quarter ended with a positive 0.9% comparable store sales gain in October. In addition, sales results improved sequentially each month within the quarter. Online sales through jcp.com were $266 million for the quarter, up 24.5% versus the same period last year and reflecting sequential increases through the quarter.

Women`s apparel, men`s apparel and fine jewelry were the Company`s top performing merchandise divisions.

For the third quarter, gross margin was 29.5% of sales, compared to 32.5% in the same quarter last year.  Gross margin for the third quarter was negatively impacted by lower clearance margins due to the overhang of inventory from the first two quarters of the year, higher levels of clearance units sold, as well as the Company`s transition back to a promotional pricing strategy as compared to last year`s strategy.  Notwithstanding, gross margin did improve sequentially throughout the quarter.

SG&A expenses for the quarter were approximately $1 billion, down 1.9% from the previous quarter and down 7.5% from the third quarter of 2012.

Operating loss for the fiscal third quarter of 2013 was $401 million.  The Company incurred $46 million in restructuring and management transition charges, as follows:

Home office and stores: ($6) million;

Store fixtures: $10 million;  

Management transition: $3 million; and

Other: $39 million, including $36 million relating to the return of shares of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia previously acquired by the Company.

In the third quarter, the Company`s recognized tax benefit was $11 million reflecting a significant reduction in tax benefits typically recognized from federal and state loss carry-forwards due to the recognition of a tax valuation allowance of $184 million during the quarter. This resulted in an effective tax rate of only 2.2% for the third quarter compared to 41.7% in the third quarter of 2012 and negatively impacted earnings per share by $0.73.

For the third quarter, the Company incurred a net loss in the amount of $489 million or $1.94 per share.  This reflects:

($0.73) of loss associated with the tax valuation allowance;

($0.18) of restructuring and management transition charges;

($0.04) for primary pension plan expense; and

$0.09 of benefit on the net gain on the sale of a non-operating asset.

Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $457 million, or $1.81 per share, excluding the restructuring and management transition charges, primary pension plan expense, and net gain on the sale of a non-operating asset. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is included in the schedules accompanying the consolidated financial statements in this release.

The adjusted net loss of $1.81 per share includes the $0.73 of loss associated with the tax valuation allowance.

Cash Flow and Financial Condition

Operating cash flow was a use of $737 million, reflecting net operating losses and an increase of $592 million in inventory, which includes our typical seasonal build in inventory in preparation for the holiday season. Financing cash flow was a source of $557 million, reflecting the net proceeds from the Company`s equity offering of $786 million. In addition, financing cash flow included a voluntary repayment of $200 million principal amount under the Company`s revolving credit facility.

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the third quarter were $1.227 billion. The Company`s total available liquidity, which includes cash and cash equivalents as well as the availability under the Company`s revolving credit facility, was $1.71 billion at quarter end. Total debt at the end of the quarter was $5.612 billion, including $650 million outstanding on the Company`s revolving credit facility.

In the third quarter, the Company paid $161 million in capital expenditures. Accrued and unpaid expenditures were $102 million at the end of the quarter.

Mr. Ullman continued, "The spirit and determination of our associates has enabled us to maintain our momentum going into the fourth quarter. We are committed to building on our progress by winning this holiday season.  The continued strong support of our domestic and international suppliers has helped ensure our merchandise assortment is outstanding. Furthermore, our new marketing campaign, which launched this week, will help remind customers that JCPenney is the destination for great holiday gifts that fit their budget."

Outlook

The Company`s current outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013 is as follows:

Comparable store sales and gross margin are expected to improve sequentially and year over year;

SG&A expenses are expected to be below last year`s levels;

Depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately $165 million;

Interest expense is expected to be in line with third quarter;

Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $175 million in the fourth quarter including accrued and unpaid expenditures and approximately $300 million for fiscal 2014;

Inventory is expected to be approximately $2.85 billion at year end;

Total available liquidity is expected to be in excess of $2 billion at year end.

Third Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call Details

At 8:30 a.m. ET today, the Company will host a live conference call conducted by Chief Executive Officer Myron E. (Mike) Ullman, III, and Chief Financial Officer Ken Hannah.  Management will discuss the Company`s performance during the quarter and take questions from participants.  To access the conference call, please dial (866) 318-8617, or (617) 399-5136 for international callers, and reference 56471359 participant code or visit the Company`s investor relations website at http://ir.jcpenney.com.

Telephone playback will be available for 90 days beginning approximately two hours after the conclusion of the meeting by dialing (888) 286-8010, or (617) 801-6888 for international callers and referencing 60221800 participant code.

Investors and others should note that we currently announce material information using SEC filings, press releases, public conference calls and webcasts.  In the future, we will continue to use these channels to distribute material information about the Company and may also utilize our website and/or various social media to communicate important information about the Company, key personnel, new brands and services, trends, new marketing campaigns, corporate initiatives and other matters.  Information that we post on our website or on social media channels could be deemed material; therefore, we encourage investors, the media, our customers, business partners and others interested in our Company to review the information we post on our website as well as the following social media channels:

Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/jcp) and Twitter (https://twitter.com/jcpnews).

Any updates to the list of social media channels we may use to communicate material information will be posted on the Investor Relations page of the Company`s website at www.jcp.com.

Media Relations:
(972) 431-3400 or jcpnews@jcp.com

Investor Relations:
(972) 431-5500 or jcpinvestorrelations@jcpenney.com

About JCPenney:

J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), one of the nation`s largest apparel and home furnishing retailers, is dedicated to becoming America`s preferred retail destination for unmatched style, quality and value. Across approximately 1,100 stores and at jcp.com, customers will discover an inspiring shopping environment that features the most sought after collection of private, national and exclusive brands and attractions. For more information, please visit jcp.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

This release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Words such as "expect" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements, which include, but are not limited to, statements regarding sales trends, year-end liquidity and the Company`s outlook for the holiday season.  Forward-looking statements are based only on the Company`s current assumptions and views of future events and financial performance. They are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside of the Company`s control, that may cause the Company`s actual results to be materially different from planned or expected results. Those risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, general economic conditions, including inflation, recession, unemployment levels, consumer confidence and spending patterns, credit availability and debt levels, changes in store traffic trends, the cost of goods, more stringent or costly payment terms and/or the decision by a significant number of vendors not to sell us merchandise on a timely basis or at all, trade restrictions, the ability to monetize non-core assets on acceptable terms, the ability to implement our turnaround strategy, customer acceptance of our new strategies, our ability to attract, motivate and retain key executives and other associates, the impact of cost reduction initiatives, our ability to generate or maintain liquidity, implementation of new systems and platforms, changes in tariff, freight and shipping rates, changes in the cost of fuel and other energy and transportation costs, increases in wage and benefit costs, competition and retail industry consolidations, interest rate fluctuations, dollar and other currency valuations, the impact of weather conditions, risks associated with war, an act of terrorism or pandemic, the ability of the federal government to fund and conduct its operations, a systems failure and/or security breach that results in the theft, transfer or unauthorized disclosure of customer, employee or Company information and legal and regulatory proceedings.  There can be no assurances that the Company will achieve expected results, and actual results may be materially less than expectations.  Please refer to the Company`s most recent Form 10-Q and subsequent filings for a further discussion of risks and uncertainties. Investors should take such risks into account and should not rely on forward-looking statements when making investment decisions. Any forward-looking statement made by us in this press release is based only on information currently available to us and speaks only as of the date on which it is made.  We do not undertake to update these forward-looking statements as of any future date.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/...y-q3-earnings-2013-11#ixzz2lC2K7smv  

20.11.13 14:48

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtDie zahlen wurden gut

aufgenommen . Aktuell 8% plus im pre-markt

8.71 0.00 (0.00%)
Pre-market: 9.42 +0.71 (8.15%)  

20.11.13 16:10

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C.Penney - welche Überraschung heute

Spaetschicht: Für's Erste nun schon  9 1/2 Dollar. Gar nicht so schlecht, oder wie siehs't Du das?  Thangs Giving noch vor uns (am 28.11.13) und schon jetzt Umsatzerhöhungen aus eigener Kraft. Das ist toll. ... Black Friday mag am 29.11. kommen! Best buy und Macy's haben in letzter Zeit auch nicht mehr so hohe Sprünge gemacht; irgendwie doch interessant (.. hatten allerdings vorher einen guten Lauf). Vll. stehen die Papiere von J.C.Penney in der Nachweihnachtszeit auf  10 1/2 bis 11 US-Dollar. ... Dann hätte man vorläufig das Ziel bei diesem Investment erreicht; jedenfalls wär's bei mir dann schon mal der Fall. Bis bald.

 

20.11.13 16:15

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtWerde mir den tagesverlauf

anschauen , der bisher ganz gut verläuft ;-) Und stop loss setzen und den ggf. nachziehen  

20.11.13 16:57
1

7019 Postings, 5788 Tage butzerlewie vermutet

Zahlen schlecht, aber der Ausblick mit den besseren Same Store Vergleichen stimmt versöhnlich

@Spaetschicht: Das mit dem SL ist so eine Sache, habe ich ja auch genauso praktiziert und wurde da noch vor 7$ rausgekegelt (habe die Scheine praktisch zum Tiefstand gekauft... waren bei mir nur 7% hängen geblieben oder so)  

20.11.13 17:12

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtRichtig,

wird nicht gleich passieren. Ein bisschen Gewinne möchte ich schon mitnehmen.  

20.11.13 17:34

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C.Penney - auf dem Weg zurück?

butzerle: Stopp Loss - Setzungen sind zu unflexibel. Genau so ärgert man sich im XETRA - Handel, weil zu kleine Aufträge nicht aussortiert werden können, wenn Du größere Linien bedienen lässt.  Es sind dann diese Handelsfirmen, die an der Börse den Reibach machen. Da zahlst Du glatt einen Hunderter mehr für nichts. Stopp Loss kann hingegen viel kaputt machen, wenn's um kleinste Differenzen geht - oder weil das Papier kurz unter Dein gesetztes Limit fällt - sich dann aber schnell wieder herausarbeitet (.. denke, das ist Dir bei JCP dann wohl geschehen, oder ?).  Ratschläge kann man da nicht geben, wenn Sicherheitsgedanken dabei  im Vordergrund stehen. J.C.Penney hätte ich bspw. heute nachgekauft, wenn das Papier um 10 - 15% gesunken wäre, ... um das Ganze -- aus meiner Sicht -- dann zu vertagen, etwa bis zu den Ergebnissen aus IV/ 2013 im Februar 2014. 

Wir sollten jetzt alle auf die Entwicklung in den Staaten schauen, wer im Einzelhandel punkten kann oder den Weg zurück findet, was ja eher bei JCP so angesagt sein sollte. 

 

21.11.13 09:59

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C.Penney - erste im S & P 500 wieder mal

butzerle:  9,44 $  + 8,4%, erste im S & P 500 mit einem PLUS von 0,73 $, bei 12 MIO. Stück Umsatz an der Börse in NY. Soll man die Papiere nun "einmauern"? Auf CNBC sprachen die Kommentatoren von einem möglichen Rebound. Auch schienen die Vermögensverwalter, die JCP und Macy's begleiten, recht positiv gestimmt zu sein. "Gewinne soll man laufen lassen", oder?  So jedenfalls die gängige Meinung von Profis. Wiedervorlage dann wohl ca. Febr. 2014!  Unternehme dann zurzeit nichts mehr. Suche momentan nach neuen Anlagealternativen, "abseits von den bunten Blättern", die bislang das Ganze auch noch nicht mitbekommen haben. .....Gut so!  Die laufen sowieso Trend's hinterher.

 

22.11.13 10:55

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012Thanksgiving 28.11. bei JCP

Black Friday (29.11.) stellt bekanntlich die Zäsur im US- Handel dar, und der folgt bekanntlich nach diesjährigem sehr späten Thanksgiving. Warten wir die Berichte ab und schauen wir dabei auf Macy's, Kohl's, Target und Best Buy, ...aber auch auf unseren "gefallenen Engel"  J.C.Penney. Könnte mir vorstellen, dass das schon mal weiterführt.

Ansonsten bleibt's dabei - auch der Februar 2014 könnte interessant werden, wenn die Ergebnisse vom IV. Quartal 2013 veröffentlicht werden.

Kaufe ggfs. sogar JCP Inc. noch nach, ... falls es ein erhebliches Kursab geben sollte (... sehe aber vorerst hierzu keinen Anlass).  

 

26.11.13 10:39
1

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage Spaetschichtna wenn das keine Nachricht ist

J.C. Penney CEO Ullman Buys $1 Million in Retailer's Shares

http://www.4-traders.com/...s-1-Million-in-Retailers-Shares-17499701/  

26.11.13 14:59

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C.Penney - Investorckt zu

Spaetschicht: Bist wieder mal ein Schneller, der diese gute Nachricht verbreitet. Heute vorab dann schon mal in Ffm. um 7,00 Euro. Wo jetzt Ullman eingestiegen ist, wird's noch andere Anleger geben, die da was wittern. Die Zusammensetzung der Großaktionäre spricht im Übrigen für sich.

War heute leider mit "Tieffliegern" befasst und heilte hier die Spitzen, so bei Südzucker und Aurubis - folgt noch K & S. Ja, da ist man bei der JCP wohl besser aufgehoben, oder? Jedenfalls könnte man schon zu Beginn 2014  -- im ersten Quartal --  durch Teilverkäufe den Einsatz in J.C. Penney - Aktien größtenteils wieder heraus bekommen, ... vll. sogar vollständig. Bin hier recht optimistisch gestimmt. Jetzt, wie gesagt, ... mal den 28.11.13 Thanksgiving und dann den so wichtigen "Black Friday" abwarten -  und dann den "Cyber Monday". Soll's denn nur im Luxussegment was bringen?  Wir werden's wohl bald wissen.  Bis bald.   

 

26.11.13 16:10
1

7019 Postings, 5788 Tage butzerle1 Million $

ist schon mal ne Ansage, oft kaufen (neue) CEOs nur alibimässig für ca. 10k was, ansonsten halten die sich schadlos, verkaufen ihre per Boni zugesicherten Optionen "automatisch" schnellstmöglich usw.

Aber Ullman scheint es wissen zu wollen  

26.11.13 23:41
1

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtWer gute Nachrichten hat soll sie teilen,

damit andere auch was davon haben. Bin gerade nach hause gekommen und freue mich
über ein paar Prozent JCP und ein paar mehr von Voxeljet. Glaube mittlerweile es war gar nicht so dumm hier investiert zu sein.

@FD Kali und Salz habe ich rausgeschmissen statt dessen habe ich potash im Depot !
Ist mir sicherer und zahlen auch ne gute divi Quartalsweise  

27.11.13 10:40

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C.Penney - wird schon

Spaetschicht: War wohl richtig, in JCP zu investieren, Das sehe ich auch so wie Du.  Nachlegen in diesem Papier, ja = grundsätzlich,"wenn die Richtung bei J.C. Penney stimmt". Warten wir die wichtigen Tage zu Ende Nov. (Thanksgiving + Black Friday) und gleich zu Beginn des Dez. (Cyber-Monday) ab und positionieren wir uns dann ggfs. neu. Bislang ist das alles noch riskant. Aber CEO Ullman weist wohl den Weg, "Der Neue = der Alte". Wenn Ullman recht behält läuft die Story schön weiter, so einstweilen in Richtung 11/12 $. Das von Dir mit K&S Gesagte habe ich verinnertlicht; bin übrigens noch nicht drin - warte hier mit RPM1974 an der Seitenlinie. Derzeit ist mir die JCP einfach wichtiger, auch für weiteren Cashverbrauch! Die Systeme zeigen immer noch Dividenden bei JCP an; ist ja wohl nicht, oder?

 

27.11.13 10:53
1

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012J.C. Penney - besser: "neue JCP"

paioneer: Falsche Angaben, wie hier bei JCP, das kennt man doch. Solche "Geschädigte" finden immer einen Weg. Hat wohl mit dem/den CEO-Wechsel/n zu tun. War ja auch krass, oder?  Für mich die die "neue JCP" ein Investment wert. Es muss ja nicht immer nur Macy's oder Bloomingdal sein, die die "höheren Kreise bedienen". Kehren die Kunden bei J.C.Penney zurück, ist bereits die "halbe Miete" verdient. Ullman hat ja nun eine Vertrauensbeweis erbracht. butzerle hat das ja entsprechend im Forum begleitet. Dem stimme ich vollinhaltlich gerne zu. Eingangs erwähnte Kläger dürften m.E. scheitern, weil sich ja gerade das Gegenteil beweisen sollte.

 

27.11.13 10:57
1

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtMoin FD

Jc Penney hat die letzte Dividende im Mai 2012 gezahlt. Hier steht 5. April als Ex Dividend und da die Dividende etwa 1. Monat später gezahlt wird...

Hier noch etwas zum lesen

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...jcp-ullmans-buy-is-very-meaningful

Grüße Spaet  

27.11.13 20:23

80 Postings, 4012 Tage kukugfeinfein

geht ja ab hier... xD  

28.11.13 11:01
1

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012Thankgiving bei JCP, nach 60% PLUS vom Tief

Spaetschicht:  10,08 $  nach 7,69% Steigerung am 27.11. / mit  0,72 $, bei 7,7 MIO. Stücken = 2. bester Wert im S & P 500; das schon wieder mal!  Schaff' nicht so viel .... und freu Dich an Deinen Papieren, dass es so gut läuft. Bin mir fast sicher, dass wir bis Febr. 2014  ca. 12 $ sehen.  .... Bis bald.

 

29.11.13 23:54
1

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtWieder ein riesiges volumen heute

Vol / Avg. 78.81M/38.92M . Apropos Thanksgiving einen Truthahn könnte ich mir bestimmt schon leisten vom Gewinn. Bei einem solchen Volumen fehlt nur eine richtig gute Meldung. Zeigt auf jeden Fall das ein riesiges Interesse da ist.

VG

Spaet  

03.12.13 11:48
1

4666 Postings, 4690 Tage FD2012JCP - m.E. kaufen bei Rücksetzern

Spaetschicht. Freut mich, die Sache mit dem Truthahn, dass Du Dir den leisten kannst. Thanksgiving lief ruhig durch. Aber auch Macy's musste kleinere Kursverlust akuell hinnehmen. Würde nun unsere J.C.Penney Co. Inc. einen starken Rücksetzer bilden, dann läuft meine Investition auf  100%, und zwar durch gezielte Zukäufe in diesen Papieren (derzeit 75% im Inv.-Stock). Da würde ich auch Kaufkurse von ca. 8,65 - 9,00 $ akzeptieren, weil unter der Regie von Ullman besser die selbst gesteckten Ziele erreicht werden sollten. Jedenfalls ist dies meine Meinung.

Es nützt aber vorerst nichts, hier auf stark steigende Kurse zu rechnen,  ... denn wir müssen das Jahresende 2013 bei JCP erst einmal abwarten und ebenso auf belastbare Zahlen schauen, .... so ca. bis Februar 2014.

Jeder orientiert sich hier bekanntlich selbst. Meine Meinung muss nicht zutreffen, lb. Aktienfreunde!  Bis bald.

 

03.12.13 12:20
1

4724 Postings, 5081 Tage SpaetschichtSind über 10 $ geblieben. Black Friday

Analysts from multiple firms weigh in on major retailer's Black Friday traffic and sales.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/12/...target-macys-wal-mart-j-c-penney/

http://translate.google.de/...acys-wal-mart-j-c-penney%2F&act=url

Now that Black Friday weekend is in the books, analysts are giving us some idea of how major brick and mortar retail chains are doing. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) and Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M) are among the big winners so far this holiday shopping season, according to analysts at numerous firms.

No shortage of supply

One of the trends noted this year by Sterne Agee analysts Charles Grom, Renato Basanta and John Parke is that there seemed to be no issues with supply, particularly with doorbuster deals. They visited a number of stores starting Thanksgiving night and found a big rush at around 8 p.m. at most retailers, followed by “a significant lull” between 3 and 7 p.m., and then another strong rush on Friday morning.

The analysts said most doorbuster deals had just “OK” success as they found that many shoppers were cherry picking a number of the time-specific deals at Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT). They noted that several retailers which had front-page items listed still had those items in stock late Friday morning. Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) and Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M) all had numerous doorbuster items still available at midday on Friday, especially in the electronics and cookware categories.

Interesting trends on Black Friday

The Sterne Agee team was surprised to see so many “younger millennial shoppers” at the mall and said that this is a good sign since so many consumers are starting to shift more of their purchasing online. They also note that outwear sold really well on Friday.

Another interesting trend was noted by Paul Trussell and Matt Siler of Deutsche Bank. They said most big box retailers received most of the traffic after Thanksgiving dinner, while the attention shifted to department stores starting at 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving night and running through Friday afternoon.

A less-glowing review of Black Friday shopping

Of all the analyst reports we reviewed, Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly C Greenberger and her team were decidedly less positive than the others. They say Black Friday sales were probably “in-line to slightly below expectations.” They said even though retailers opened on Thanksgiving, an increase in Thanksgiving traffic offset Black Friday mall traffic.



According to the National Retail Federation, there was a 2.9% decline in Thanksgiving weekend sales year over year. The organization reported a 27% increase in Thanksgiving Day traffic but only a 3.5% increase in Black Friday traffic. The Morgan Stanley team said this suggests that the average consumer spent almost 4% less year over year while responding to deep discounts on items.

J.C. Penney wins by returning to its roots

Analysts at multiple firms also found that J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) did well with its return to promotional pricing and couponing. Deutsche Bank analysts said although the retail chain’s traffic didn’t appear impressive compared to that of its peers, they think the company will win compared to its recent poor performances.

Who won the overall Black Friday weekend?

Of course analysts have differing views on which retail chain won Black Friday weekend. Sterne Agee voted for Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE:M) as the big winner, citing its earlier opening time, promotional intensity and success in cold weather wear, footwear, and home or kitchen appliances. UBS analysts also liked Macy’s as a “positive standout” over the weekend.

Deutsche Bank analysts thought Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) was the big winner with its “impressive one-hour guarantee on 21 items” and the sell-outs of most of its doorbuster deals. Note that this is contrary to the above report about other retailers which had doorbusters which didn’t sell out. They said a conference call with Wal-Mart management suggested an increase in Thanksgiving Day traffic.

Morgan Stanley analysts also named Macy’s as a big winner, although their other picks were The Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) and L Brands Inc (NYSE:LTD).  

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