http://www.bougainville24.com/abg/...e-made-if-panguna-is-to-re-open/
Two important streams of information are flowing side by side across Bougainville at this time.
Both streams seem destined to merge in the near future, as the people of the Autonomous Region furnish themselves with facts and make practical decisions affecting their future.
The first information stream concerns the Bougainville Peace Agreement, first achieved many years ago but the details of which are now a little blurred in the memory of many Bougainvilleans.
Sharpening up the focus on the essential elements of the Agreement has become a priority task for both the Autonomous Government and NCOBA, the National Government’s co-ordinating agency for Bougainville Affairs.
Encouraging people to re-discuss and better understand the historic agreement is necessary because the most vital of all its provisions is that a referendum be held, allowing all Bougainvilleans to vote on the choice to depart from Papua New Guinea and embark on a new life as an independent state, or remain as an autonomous entity.
President John Momis has declared that his government will bring the date of the referendum forward, hoping to hold the crucial vote earlier in its constitutionally designated window.
In early August, representatives from NCOBA and the ABG journeyed to Arawa to begin the process of re-connecting Bougainvilleans with the Peace Agreement.
The choice of Arawa as the venue for this re-invigorated awareness program recognises the historical fact that many of the participants in the original peace process reside in Central Bougainville.
Bound up with the first stream of information and awareness is another message seen as essential to any decisions about Bougainville choosing in the referendum to go it alone.
This factor is expressed in NCOBA’s slogan, “Peace by Economic Means”, also recognised by President Momis and members of his government.
For Bougainvilleans to enjoy a share in the god life as an independent or autonomous province, there must be economic development and underlying prosperity.
Most discussion about this reality lead back to Panguna, where the copper mine that provided decades of employment, business development, education and social opportunity now lies dormant.
Awakening this sleeping giant promises an early start to new income for the region and its people.
Although a re-start to mining and production of copper and gold could not be expected before 2020 or thereabouts, early work will generate employment and contractor opportunities.
Just as important as allowing people to make an informed choice about re-starting a large mining operation at Panguna, is the need to manage expectations.
Bougainville Copper Limited, President Momis’ preferred choice as operator of a re-started mine, is making it clear to stakeholders that the economics of opening up Panguna for a second life are not assured.
There are many unknowns to be “de-risked”, as mining economists like to say.
These include the future prices of copper and gold, Bougainvilleans’ expectations about compensation and remediation, and the cost of borrowing a massive $US 5 billion to develop and equip a mine which, over 20 years of dormancy has been stripped bare of much previous infrastructure.
So the second stream of information provided to Bougainvilleans flows from BCL through statements made at annual meetings and relayed to shareholders and through a review process known as an ‘Order of Magnitude Study’.
This document, carefully and expensively researched, attempts to convey a picture of what a new Panguna might look like, how long its mining life could be, how many men and women might be employed, what civic and social infrastructure could be developed around the mine and its surroundings, how waste rock and tailings could be managed in the modern era and many other considerations.
Opening the Order of Magnitude Study to relevant parties as an information document, BCL chairman Peter Taylor was at pains to make stakeholders aware of the factors still to be determined and the great amount of work still needed before any decision to re-start the mine can be taken.
“I emphasise the study has a degree of accuracy of plus or minus 30% and is not a substitute for the far more detailed bankable feasibility study that will be needed to support redevelopment,” Mr Taylor said.
“It is not intended to undertake additional and costly work until an agreement that permits profitable re-development is reached with landowners and governments.
“There are also complex tax, compensation and social issues that need to be resolved before development can proceed.
“The capital cost is high at US$5.2 billion but it has been assumed that most mine site facilities will need to be replaced.
“This will be reassessed once mine access is available.
“As previously made clear, the project is very dependent on robust long term metal prices,” Mr Taylor said.
So it is not only Bougainvilleans who have informed decisions to make regarding the future. BCL has to do some hard thinking also. ----------- Mein MULTIBAGGER Favorit B?C ;-))))) |