"Regarding the PEG rate to use, we can use the multiples that the market is applying to other internet/tech stocks such as Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) or Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). Alphabet is expected to grow EPS at a 21.55% CAGR in the next three years, which means the stock is trading at a PEG of 1.48. Facebook is expected to grow earnings at a 21.2% CAGR in the next three years, which translates into a PEG ratio of 1.44. Using these numbers, we can estimate the fair value of Alibaba's core commerce business to be between $475,247 million (PEG of 1.44 and earnings growth of 33%) and $562,456 million (PEG of 1.48 and earnings growth of 38%). I will use these numbers in a conservative and a positive scenario, respectively." |