Angesichts der in USA grassierenden Banken- und Junkbond-Krise wären die US-Aktienmärkte längst eingebrochen, wenn die Shortseller nicht panische Angst vor weiteren Private-Equity- Übernahmen hätten. Denn diese können einen Shortseller, der in der entsprechenden Einzelaktie short ist, schlagartig ein Vermögen kosten kann (Sprünge von + 20 % sind möglich wie bei Phelps Dodge [PD], jetzt "privat"). Und das gilt auch für andere Aktien aus dem gleichen Umfeld: Als z. B. gestern TXU übernommen wurde, stiegen auch die Kurse anderer US-Energieaktien wie RRI).
Kurioserweise breitet der PE-Irrsinn somit seine schützende Hand über dem Aktien-Irrsinn aus. Das ändert sich freilich, wenn bei einer weiteren Verschärfung der Junkbond-Krise (## 121, 116, 117) der Lebenssaft in Gestalt der "globalen Hyperliquidität" versiegt. Das kann ebenfalls recht schlagartig vonstatten gehen - wie die Housing-Krise zeigt: Gab es lange Jahre zuviel Geld und zuwenig Häuser, so hat sich die Lage jetzt umgekehrt: Häuser werden zunehmend "unverkäuflich" (außer zu stark reduzierten Preisen). Der typische "Boom-and-Bust-Cycle" halt...
NOCH sitzen die PE-Heuschrecken auf prall gefüllten Kassen, deren Inhalt auf Deubel komm raus angelegt werden MUSS (war ja Bedingung dafür, dass sie das Geld von den Pensionskassen überhaupt erhielten). Doch das ist kein Patentrezept für vernünftige Kauf- und Übernahme-Entscheidungen: Wenn der TXU-Deal durchgeht, steigt das Verhältnis von Schulden zu Cash-Flow auf 7, vorher war es 2,3. Dieses hohe Leverage gefährdet die Firma stark, wenn sich die Wirtschaft abschwächt. Im Mittel lag das Schulden/Cashflow-Verhältnis nach den letzten PE-Deals sogar bei desaströsen 9 - 2001 lag es noch bei 6.
Market Features
Mergers, but No Mania
By Liz Rappaport
Street.com Markets Columnist
2/26/2007 5:50 PM EST
Merger mania may be the only thing preventing a full-blown stock market correction these days.
The busiest merger Monday in the U.S. thus far in 2007, according to Thomson Financial, included Texas utility company TXU's (TXU) agreeing to the largest leveraged buyout ever. TXU's $32 billion buyout by private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Texas Pacific Group and Goldman Sachs beats KKR's $25 billion buyout of RJR Nabisco in 1998. Including assumed debt, the TXU deal amounts to $45 billion.
But the $50 billion tally of announced deals couldn't sustain an early spark in the major stock indices. With oil over $60 per barrel, a spate of probably soft manufacturing reports out this week and traders expecting a setback after seven months of gains, the market slipped despite the acquisition frenzy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, both slid for a third consecutive day, down 0.1% Monday to close at 12,632.26 and 1449.37, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was down for its second straight day, dropping 0.4% to close at 2504.52.
"I think the deals are holding the market up," says Todd Leone, head of listed trading at Cowen & Co. "They've repriced all the stocks, and people are afraid to be short."
If left alone, stocks might have fallen farther, says Leone. "Everyone is talking correction, correction, correction, and to some extent a little bit of that is coming true."
Many potential weak links for investors may trip the market in the next several days, as most of the data are manufacturing-related. Manufacturing is the segment of the economy known by investors as the chink [Chinese] in Goldilocks' armor [Rüstung].
Indeed, ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan opened the day with talk of a recession this year. "When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign, for example in the U.S. profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle," he said in a speech Monday that was broadcast via satellite in Hong Kong for the Very GC Global Business Insights 2007 Conference.
Greenspan's words may have been largely dismissed by stock traders, but the Treasury bond market took heed. The 10-year Treasury bond fell to 4.63% from 4.68% on Friday. The yield on the 10-year has slid from 4.89% at the end of January as evidence has emerged that growth may not be as gangbusters as previously thought.
[Siehe auch hier: http://www.ariva.de/board/283887?pnr=3120223#jump3120223 ]
This week, the government's second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is expected to be 2.3%, revised from 3.5%, while the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index are each expected to show flat activity.
Such low expectations could be responsible for the Dow Jones Transportation Average's sharp fall from its recent highs, down 2.4% Monday.
Ahead of existing- and new-home sales data this week, Greenspan was sanguine about the housing market's spillover into the rest of the economy, but highlighted the budget deficit as a "significant concern," and he warned of rabid risk appetite in the financial markets.
"Risk is no longer perceived as major risk, at least as it was in years past, and that I must say I find disturbing," said Greenspan, according to wire reports.
Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Pain?
Risk appetite comes from excess liquidity, and as Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said last week, from complacency about low volatility in the markets. The risk appetite depresses risk premiums on typically high-yielding assets and puts large investors on the hunt for ever more yield, which has helped spur massive private equity investment. The deals promise an initial stock price boost, as shareholders of TXU, insurance broker Hub International (HBG) and Stations Casino (STN) experienced Monday.
TXU's shares rose 13.2% Monday, while competitors such as Reliant Energy (RRI) rose 6.3%; the Dow Utility Average jumped 2.4% to a record close. Hub jumped 14.8%, and Stations rose 3.8% after agreeing to separate private equity deals.
But the longer-term implications of leveraged buyouts are not always pretty.
Private-equity deals add lots of leverage to companies, and sometimes the buyers turn around deals to make a quick buck -- without having added value and expertise.
If the deal goes through, TXU's ratio of debt-to-cash flow will jump to 7 times from 2.3 times, says Greg Peters, U.S. credit strategist at Morgan Stanley. The average ratio of debt to cash flow for an LBO has risen to 9 times, from 6 times in 2001, says Peters. Debt ratios don't matter so much for equity shareholders when they collect the windfall of a buyout, which boast a long-term average of 25% premium.
But can there be too much of a good thing? Tony Crescenzi, chief fixed-income strategist at Miller Tabak and a RealMoney.com contributor, wrote Monday that the pace of commercial and industrial loans is slowing; that can be a leading indicator "that businesses might be losing confidence in the economic expansion."
Companies may be losing confidence, choosing not to invest in growth, and would rather buy back stock, even though most of their balance sheets are in good condition after refinancing debt amid historically low interest rates. Are these companies just waiting for a buyout?
The battle between radio broadcaster Clear Channel Communications' (CCU) shareholders and the private equity consortium that wants to take it private for $18.7 billion is telling, as The Wall Street Journal recently noted.
Why can't the company's management make changes for the benefit of current shareholders to bring the company's value to the level private equity buyers see? The consortium, including Bain Capital, Thomas H. Lee Partners and founding family members, offered a 10.2% premium to control the company.
Later on in the privatization process, companies taken private are sometimes quickly spun back out into the market with little or no changes made, or in worse financial shape. Initial public offerings of companies spun out after an LBO, such as Hertz (HTZ) , barely registered a positive return in 2006. But these IPOs clearly lagged behind non-buyout-backed deals, says Richard Peterson, an analyst at Thomson Financial.
Whatever private equity's plans for TXU, the deal might not even hold the largest-ever record for very long. A U.K.-based newspaper ran a story alleging that KKR, Blackstone Capital Partners and the Carlyle Group are interested in taking Dow Chemical (DOW) private for $54 billion, including assumed debt. That beats TXU's deal and even RJR Nabisco's if doubled to account for inflation.
Lastly, if the market can't rally on the biggest merger Monday yet this year, maybe these big deals are signs of a top, not signs of strength.
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Real estate investment trusts have been doing very well for several years. However, you can see from the chart that this ETF has become slightly overextended. Earlier this month, the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund (IYR) had a minor blowoff top on high volume. It then tried to consolidate and unsuccessfully move back to new highs. The weak price and volume action on Friday signal that it we may see a test of at least the $88 level. 
Last but not least is the homebuilding sector. I've been talking about the strength in this area for quite a few months and told investors that this may be a good contrarian play. The stocks continually went higher on extremely negative news and have made a pretty good move since I started talking about them on Sept. 26. However, earlier this month there was some topping action developing in this sector, and the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) has been struggling to hold above its 50-day moving average since. On Friday, it gave up the ghost by dropping more than 1% and broke that support level on heavy volume. From this point, a test of the $34-$35 area is not out of the question. 
As an investor, I would keep a close eye on any stocks that you hold in these sectors. If your stock breaks below its 50-day moving average on heavy volume, it may be a good time to take some profits. These sectors and most of the stocks in them have had a very good run, and you don't want to give a majority of your profits back if they end up in an intermediate or long-term correction. 