Voyager Digital: Growth Is Accelerating
Jan. 12, 2021 1:01 AM ETVoyager Digital Ltd. (VYGVF)COINB34 Comments13 Likes
SummaryVoyager's growth is accelerating and it will continue to impact the stock price.Assets Under Management have increased 52% in 10 days.Funded account growth is up 25% in 10 days.VGX token is up 200% in 7 days.
A lot has changed for Voyager Digital (OTCQB:VYGVF) in the couple weeks since my last article. Voyager Digital's growth has accelerated and this will have large implications on the stock price and token price (VGX).
Voyager Digital is undergoing a huge acceleration in growth in late December and early January as the adoption of cryptocurrencies has accelerated. The company has announced that in the last 10 days the company has seen the following growth.
Assets Under Management (AUM) went from USD$230 million to USD$350 millionAverage daily net deposits exceed USD$5 million, up from approximately USD$1 million per day in DecemberAverage daily new funded accounts have grown 4x vs the December run rate as the Company has increased its funded accounts by 25% since December 31Principal Value Traded has increased 4x to USD$20 million per day from USD$5 million per day in DecemberTrading velocity has increased to approximately 1.25x-1.5x AUM on a monthly basis vs. a historic turnover rate of .75x-1x AUMTrading spreads to date continue to track above 50 basis points
Revenue Updates
Voyager Digital had announced about $3.5 million in revenue in the 4th quarter of 2020, which was a 70% increase from the 3rd quarter of 2020. If we now account for the accelerated growth in early January the company will likely increase revenue another 200% to $11 million or more for Q1 2021. To get to $11 million in revenue the trading spreads and trading volumes would have to maintain its current level, and the AUM would need to maintain its current level.
The CEO recently announced that a good rule of thumb to determine Voyager's revenue is to take the AUM and multiply it by 10%. If AUM maintains $350 million, then revenue will likely be $35 million for 2021. This would put the Price-To-Revenue ratio around 15x for 2021 if we assume today's stock price.
If we extrapolate the $5 million in net deposit growth for the rest of 2021 and the market prices remain the same, then AUM would surpass $1 billion before June and 2021 revenue would be north of $100 million. Net profits on $100 million in revenue are very likely to be high for a company that runs an online application that has an average acquisition cost of $35 and an average revenue per customer of $240 a year.
The accelerating growth might have large implications long term
Source
The CEO sees a path to having $20 billion in AUM in 2025. With the recent uptick in growth, the CEO thinks it might happen sooner. At $20 billion AUM the revenue would be around $2 billion. In 2025 Voyager would likely be a low cost and high margin business with multiple revenue streams. Companies with this structure easily trade above 7x Price-To-Revenue. A 7x multiple on VYGVF would put it north of $100 a share in 2025.
Coinbase Beware
Lots of people have heard that Coinbase (COINB) is going public in 2021. Some are valuing the IPO price at $20 billion or much more. Long term investors in Coinbase should be cautious when considering that Voyager has some huge competitive advantages against Coinbase.
The trend of people moving from Coinbase to Voyager is accelerating. I have personally seen several Twitter accounts announce they are transferring their assets from Coinbase to Voyager. They are doing it for the following reasons:
Coinbase charges 1.49%-3.99% fees per trade and takes another .5% spread fee. Voyager charges about .6% or .006 on each trade on average but their spread is based on the best prices of 12+ exchanges.Coinbase offers you no interest on any cryptos. Voyager offers interest on 22 cryptos which includes up to 9.5% interest on the US dollar pegged coin USDC.Coinbase continues to go offline when trading volumes spike. Voyager has never gone down due to trading volume spikes and Voyager is able to route to different exchanges when any exchange goes offline.The VGX Token has caught fire
The token has risen over 200% in the last 7 days. This is likely attributed to two things. The funded account growth is up 25% in 10 days. Also, the CEO announced that he is finalizing a new Voyager Loyalty Program that he thinks the community will be very excited about. The new loyalty program will likely be announced this week or next week.
If the funded account growth continues at this January pace, then there is a high probability that the token breaks $1 very soon and it is likely to break $5 in the summer.
If you want to join Voyager and buy the VGX token, you can simply download the App on your phone. The desktop version is currently in beta testing and will be released soon. The phone app is the easiest and the most regulated way for an American to have access to the most cryptos and to earn interest on the cryptos that they buy. If you just want to invest in something that has similar risks to a bank CD, then you might like buying the US dollar pegged coin USDC, which gives you 8.5% to 9.5% interest. The USDC coin does not go up or down in price, it just tracks the value of the dollar. Much better than the 0% interest on your bank deposit.
Also, Voyager will give you $25 in free Bitcoin if you download the App and deposits $100. You just need to put in a referral code when signing up. I encourage you to use a friend or family member as your referral code so you both get $25 in Bitcoin when signing up. If you have no one to refer you can use DER002 to get your free $25 in Bitcoin.
Risks
VYGVF stock
Regulations that are overly burdensome of crypto brokerages or the exchanges.Loss of interest in cryptocurrencies or a large sustained fall in cryptocurrency market values.Large contraction in Assets Under Management or a large contraction in the stock price multiples.A platform hack.
VGX token
Management does not improve the Voyager Loyalty Program, but this is unlikely given recent guidance.Voyager platform has no user growth or a falling user growth.A large sustained fall in cryptocurrency market values.Conclusion
If the recent growth is sustained, then the AUM will easily be over $1 billion in the summer of 2021, which means the revenue run rate will be over $100 million. If the revenue run rate is over $100 million, then I think the stock price will be $15+. If the user growth continues through the summer, then I think the VGX token price will likely be breaking $5 or even $10.
Disclosure: I am/we are long VYGVF, VGX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. |
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