http://seekingalpha.com/article/...d:bb073cb3dee47f8ebc29e2f4a86a74b9
Summary
Company reported very weak Q3 FY 2016 numbers but affirmed its recently lowered full-year guidance.
Q4 revenues will most likely see an up to 300% increase from Q3 levels and strong cash flows.
While there are more potential short-term catalysts ahead, investors nevertheless need to prepare for another revenue decrease in FY2017.
Fuel Cell Energy will most likely enter the new fiscal year with a strong liquidity position and a substantial project pipeline that might take some time to develop.
Note: I have covered FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL) previously, so investors should view this article as an update to my earlier articles on the company.
Clearly, FuelCell Energy's Q3 FY 2016 results were nothing to write home about as reported revenues missed analyst expectations by a mile with the backlog also being down quarter over quarter. Moreover, net cash used in operating activities was a whopping $25 mln for the quarter while gross margins continued to remain close to the break-even level.
But instead of dropping to new all-time lows, the stock actually managed to recover steep initial losses and even finish the session slightly in the green thanks to management keeping its recently lowered full-year FY2016 sales guidance intact on the conference call by forecasting revenues of $56-86 mln for the current quarter.
The expected major ramp in revenues is in large parts due to the upcoming expiration of the fuel cell tax investment credit (NASDAQ:FTC) at the end of 2016 as customers rush to complete purchases of turn-key projects and equipment before year end in order to qualify for the FTC.
In addition, due to the large number of project sales projected for Q4, cash flows are expected to come in substantially positive - not bad for a company that has so far used $57 mln in cash in operating and investing activities during the first nine months of fiscal year 2016. So much for the good news.
Unfortunately, investors will have to prepare for a potentially dismal FY 2017, as the company's fuel cell kit supply agreement with South Korean independent power producer POSCO Energy is slated to expire during Q4. Given the fact, that POSCO Energy so far has accounted for more than 50% of the company's revenues in FY 2016, Fuel Cell Energy will most likely encounter problems to replace these sales going forward. On the flip side, the company expects margins to increase as the sales mix will change from fuel cell kits more towards higher margin turnkey projects.
Moreover, current analyst estimates call for $230 mln in FY 2017 revenues, a more than 55% increase from their projections for FY 2016. The huge expected increase can be explained with the anticipated award of the company's by far largest project up to date, the 63MW Beacon Falls Energy Park - unfortunately the decision has been initially delayed in July and is now expected to happen at some time later this year. Should the project not be awarded, 2017 revenues might actually see another notable decrease from the already depressed 2016 levels due to the upcoming loss of the POSCO business.
Furthermore, on the conference call management announced a 20% reduction in the company's annualized factory production run-rate from 62MW to 50MW starting in the current quarter mostly due to "the current timing expectation of new product deliveries," which indirectly acknowledges expected FY 2017 revenues to most likely be lower than in FY 2016. Given this issue, the recently started major expansion of the company's Torrington, Conn., manufacturing facility looks somewhat odd at this stage, particularly as required capital expenditures for the entire project are currently estimated at up to $65 mln over a five year period with $7-10 mln expected to be occurred in FY 2016.
In addition, something does not add up with regard to the company's recently completed offering of common stock and warrants as the initial press release from July 7 stated:
FuelCell Energy, Inc., a global leader in the design, manufacture, operation and service of ultra‐clean, efficient and reliable fuel cell power plants, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with a single institutional investor to sell the equivalent of 6,861,064 shares of common stock at a per share price of $5.83, the closing bid price of the common stock on July 6, 2016, and warrants to purchase up to an aggregate of 8,233,277 shares of common stock, in a registered direct offering for gross proceeds of $40 million. The net proceeds at closing, after deducting the placement agent fees, will be approximately $37.6 million. The Company intends to use the proceeds from this offering to support project financing, working capital, and for general corporate purposes.
In contrast, yesterday's 10-Q filing with the SEC states:
On July 12, 2016 Company closed on a registered public offering of securities to a single institutional investor pursuant to a placement agent agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. The Company received net proceeds from the transaction of $34.8 million, after deducting underwriter discounts and offering expenses of $2.6 million. The transaction consisted of 1,474,000 shares of common stock, 7,680,000 Series A Warrants and 4,926,000 prefunded Series B Warrants. The Series A warrants have an exercise price of $5.83 per share and are initially exercisable beginning on the date that is six months and one day after the issue date and will expire on the fifth anniversary of the initial exercisability date.
So from the time of the announcement until the closing of the offering five days later, the offering size was reduced by close to 7% resulting in lower net proceeds to the company by the amount of $2.8 mln without management giving information to the SEC and investors about this material change.
Lastly, there has been some heated discussion as of late about the company's near- and long-term prospects under the recently announced carbon capture partnership with Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM).
In fact, management was asked rather precisely by one analyst on the call on "how many projects the company would consider executing next year as overall momentum in the market ramps?" and actually had pretty much nothing to offer other than some very general statements:
The work we're doing with Exxon directly is going very, very well. In fact, we just had a meeting with them. We're very well engaged and our teams are very well aligned. As far as other new opportunities, there are those that is true, whether it's DOE, but we're also seeing opportunities emerge besides those sponsored by the government, private companies meeting to have solutions for the things that we do.
So I would say that we - there's a lot of activity around the world on carbon capture.
But at least the company's 10-Q had something more precise to offer with regard to the Exxon Mobil partnership:
In April 2016, the Company entered into a Joint Development Agreement ("JDA") with Exxon Mobil Research and Engineering ("EMRE"). This is a follow-on agreement to approximately two years of comprehensive lab testing with which the Company has collaborated with EMRE. The scope of the agreement with EMRE will initially focus on how to further increase efficiency in separating and concentrating carbon dioxide from the exhaust of natural gas-fueled power turbines. The second phase of the JDA will more comprehensively test the technology in a 2.8 megawatt pilot project. Designs will also be developed for larger scale integrated applications. The JDA contains certain termination provisions depending on progress of the research. The JDA with EMRE also provides a framework for the two companies to protect and share in intellectual property contributed to and developed in the program. The initial term of the JDA with EMRE is approximately three years with technology rights lasting for the term of any patents that are issued.
I already cautioned investors on the very little near-term implications of the partnership for the company's business in a previous article and to instead focus on potential near-term catalysts.
Speaking of potential catalysts, investors can now look forward to a strong finish to an otherwise dismal fiscal year 2016 both from a revenue and cash flow perspective. Moreover, the jury is still out on the Beacon Falls Energy Park project with a decision still firmly expected until the end of the year. Furthermore, management on the call was still optimistic about an extension or at least retroactive reinstatement of the FTC going forward.
On the other hand, investors should be cautioned that all of the catalysts discussed above are now widely expected to kick in and particularly the potential loss of the Beacon Falls Energy Park project would most likely have a devastating effect on the company's share price. In addition, revenue expectations for FY 2017 look way too high at this point and might need to come down by up to 50% going forward.
At least, the latest equity offering has substantially improved the company's balance sheet and liquidity position and in combination with expected substantial positive cash flows for the current quarter, Fuel Cell Energy will enter a most likely very challenging FY 2017 with a solid liquidity position.
Bottom line:
There might be some near-term upside in shares of Fuel Cell Energy as investors might very well chose to focus on some of the short-term catalysts discussed above. Investors should be cautioned though, that FY 2017 is currently expected to be a difficult year for the company with another potential reduction in sales clearly being in the cards at this point. Moreover, a loss of the Beacon Falls Energy Park project would most likely cause the shares to tumble to new all-time lows.
Lastly, management's execution continues to be mediocre at best as again evidenced by the odd timing of the company's Torrington facility expansion project and the lower than expected proceeds from the recent equity offering.
While I am just closing on this article, analyst Carter Driscoll from FBR & Co. (NASDAQ:FBRC) has been out with a research note I would like to share with you:
Despite weak F3Q16 revenue, which we believe reflects a timing issue, multiple projects should be monetized in F4Q, as FCEL maintained $140M-$170M FY16 revenue guidance, implying a very strong F4Q of $56M - $86M. For F4Q, FCEL expects to monetize multiple PPA-based projects including a 5.6 MW plant for Pfizer and a 1.4 MW project for Santa Rita Jail in California. FCEL's margin profile should also improve as low-margin kit sales to POSCO Energy end, replaced by electricity revenue from long-term PPAs and multi- MW project sales (FCEL indicated that it doesn't bid on projects below 4-5 MW).
This F4Q guidance largely leaves aside the 125 MW in pending renewable awards, which we believe should be the next catalyst, along with site selection for the DOE carbon capture project. While some investors might be frustrated the renewable awards have not yet materialized, we remain convinced it's a timing issue and FCEL remains well-positioned to capture the 63.3 MW Beacon Falls project (superior economic profile), some of Connecticut's DEEP 2-20 MW RFP (using a new competitive product), and PSEG's Long Island-based 40 MW fuel cell RFP (lower costs than competitors).
While Mr. Driscoll has been bullish on the company for quite some time now, unnerved investors might feel somewhat assured by his continued optimism with regard to Fuel Cell Energy's future performance here.
Ergo: ich halte mich mit meinen Nachkäufen noch etwas zurück - zumindest ist keine Eile angesagt, dass es in den nächsten Wochen in den Himmel schießen könnte. Es sein denn
wishful thinking Aber: ich bleibe investiert und selbst wenn 2016 und 2017 grätige Jahre für FCE werden sollten - irgendwann wird es besser werden. |