Hey hab nochmal eine Berechnung zu Mengpur gefunden. Und 300 Millionen Cash Flow sind sehr konservativ wenn die ganzen Anlagen auf Mengapur laufen.
Hoffen wir mal das die Experten von Snowden das Potenzial bestätigen ich verstehe langsam wieso Goldmet und co unbedingt die Kontrolle über Monument Mining haben wollen bei den Gewinnen und Murchsion und Selensing kommen noch dazu.
Was haltet ihr davon?
10/13/2011 5:38:05 PM
The fall has already happened, and yes, we have been robbed.
But there is no point of selling now. MMY is earning to much.
After this disastrous deal gone through MMY will have 340 million shares out. Share price @ 0,48 would give a mcap of ~160 mcad. The cash will back it up. Also with ~40 M$ in earnings each year or ~0,12 $/share. That gives us a P/E of 4 which is still pretty good.
I believe, as I have seen it before, that the share price will rise after the announcement. As Mengapur is a great project. I also think that they are going to make a construction statement way earlier than 2013. I actually think early 2012 due to this desperate PP.
Then calculate the fact that we wont produce 12.000 oz/q after May/June next year. But rather 20.000 oz/q. Let us say the price of gold stays at these level and we will have earnings between 65-70 M$. With all 2012 warrants (0,55) MMY will by then have 408 million shares out. Which gives MMY a P/E of 3,3 at a share price of 0,55 cad.
By then the story is going to be out, Mengapur is closer to production and the price must be over some 0,60-0,70 cad at production start for not giving a negative P/E (Based on ~300* Musd/year earnings from Mengapur & ~80 Musd/year from Selinsing). By that you all can calculate the standard P/E 12 with reduction for geographic. So lets say this is trading at P/E 8 a couple of months before production or in other words: A share price between 5-6 cad in mid 2013.
Now I havn´t brought in other projects into this highly unprofessional calculation. And it is not to rely on, but it gives me the confidence of holding this stock.
* 312 Musd was calculated as cash flow year 1990, copper was by then at 2500 $/t and now 7500. Gold was 424 $/oz and now 1600 $/oz. Pure logic would say Mengapur would give a cash flow between 900-1000 Musd at todays prices. What the earnings would be is to hard to calculate. But in this case I choose to say 300 Musd, just to be on the safe side. |
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