Aixtron purpose of this thread

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10.01.20 16:19

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

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1467 Postings ausgeblendet.

28.02.23 09:05

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhCWL

Thank you.
What a day! Strong results as FEl216 stated already and positive guidance from both PVA Tepla and Aixtron.

I guess we will see PT raises for both in the coming days.

laugthingcool baggo-mh


28.02.23 14:54

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Q1/23 rev. estimate

I am increasing the Q1/23 sales estimate to 171m form the previous estimate of 152m (post #1444)  

28.02.23 16:43

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhAixtron CC 28.02.2023

I few of the points I wrote down as noteworthy during the call.

Strong momentum for wide bandgap materials in all markets. Power mostly coming from Europe and USA (Wolfspeed). 1/3 of the orders are being placed in US$ and the new conversion rate is 1,15.
Dividend should be continuing but percentage of profit not fixed
Share buyback programs considered

- inverters in household solar power ? big dye size.
- consumer stuff (chargers) not very important. Telecom stations with high reliability
- optical data transfer business ? 1 wafer for hundreds (if not 1.000) of lasers

G-10 launched Q3/22. Majority off all SiC orders coming in for this system. Highly cost competitive
- very strong repeat orders from existing customer
- new customers ordering 2-3 systems
- 1 new customer ordering a larger number of systems (based in Europe)
- biggest growth driver. 1 wafer for 6-7 Electric vehicles
Goal: 50% market share ? ?a good number to look at?

MicroLED - capex investment continuous

?descent amount orders received and descent amount of revenue generated ? 10%?
1 volume commercial customer several (double digit) smaller customers ordering 2-3 systems for small pilot line.
- all display makers
- tech driven start-ups
- all activities ongoing despite big Job cuts in Q4 from US Big Tech
R/G/B customers order all systems from Aixtron. However there are customers experimenting with blue and color filters to generate R/G   
Hick-up in the transfer process further down the production line seem to still exist.

business is slowly fading away with consumer confidence fading. End 2023 Felix expects it to have disappeared. It was a low margin business.

 Power business split
2022 GaN 60%  - SiC 40%
2023 GaN 40%  - SiC 60% (expected)

China is losing importance in overall numbers as demand for Power (US and Europe based) increases  

Future split of business:
1/3 GaN
1/3 SiC
1/3 MicroLED

Export licenses

?situation is relaxing ? they are coming some quicker some slower than expected?

Blue Glass in Australia
is a customer and Aixtron signed a NDA like with any other customer

Tax loss
just a different reporting requirement. Not relevant at all

Service revenue
?100 Million in 2022 should increase in future years

All in all I am still convinced this is one of the best tech. investments one can make.

laugthingcool baggo-mh


28.02.23 17:55

1416 Postings, 5921 Tage rosskatabaggo, many thanks for the summary

missed the call due to work :s  

02.03.23 12:38

5716 Postings, 3552 Tage dlg.SiC / Tesla / WOLF

Is my understanding correct that this news is responsible for today?s share price reaction? Any (un-) educated view from you is highly appreciated! Wolfspeed down by 13% in pre-market trading.


Wolfspeed Stock Falls After Tesla Suggests Next-gen Car Will Cut Silicon-carbide Use -- MarketWatch
Donnerstag, 2. März 2023 02:11 CET

Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF)shares declined more than 5% in after-hours trading Wednesday, after Tesla Inc. (TSLA) executives said their next-generation car will require less silicon carbide. Wolfspeed, a semiconductor company previously known as Cree, specializes in silicon-carbide chips, which have found a home in electric vehicles because of their resistance to heat. In an investor day presentation Wednesday afternoon, Tesla executives said their next-generation powertrain would cut the need for silicon carbide by 75%, one of the few hard details they gave about their plans for a new car. Tesla shares also declined more than 5% in Wednesday's extended session.

02.03.23 12:56

5716 Postings, 3552 Tage dlg.Tweet

Angehängte Grafik:
tesla.jpeg (verkleinert auf 42%) vergrößern

02.03.23 16:20

1416 Postings, 5921 Tage rosskata.dlg, imo this is a normal evolutionary process

reducing needed resources and needs not be bad news for the producers of these resources. On the contrary - contributing to the even broader and faster adoption of the technology -> lower price more sold EV -> more of SiC, etc.. Similar like many other products and markets.
Also Aixtron cont. increases their equipment efficiency which would mean less of MOCVD per wafer but better and more desired product from customer point of view.

The stock price needs a pull back :)  

02.03.23 16:57

5716 Postings, 3552 Tage dlg.rosskata

Thanks, rosskata! I would love to agree with your conclusion that this is a normal evolutionary (long-term) process, but taking a look at the market reaction, it seems that market got caught somewhat by surprise by Tesla?s statement. Wolfspeed lost a billion in marketcap, Aixtron -8%, STM, IFX and Tepla weak as well. And it?s not just a short dip until some kind of clarification came out, but rather since market opening this morning. Thus, I am a bit puzzled how to react here and given that two of my core holdings (Aixa, Tepla) are a big beneficary of the SiC story, I have taken some chips off the table. Looking forward to hearing any comforting messages from the likes of Wolfspeed, fel and CWL :-)  

03.03.23 10:23

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhdlg.

Habe das gerade gelesen zu Teslas SiC claim.

Bei Tepla verstehe ich die Sorgen der Anlger nicht wirklich. Das Aktienpaket geht an institutionelle Anleger. 

laugthingcool baggo-mh


03.03.23 11:20

5716 Postings, 3552 Tage dlg.baggo

Top, vielen Dank für den Link! Liest sich schon etwas beruhigender. Bei Tepla sind es mE keine Sorgen, ein fast 14% Placement hinterlässt nun mal Spuren im Kurs. Im Nachgang muss ich sogar glücklich sein mit der Tesla Aussage, weil ich den heutigen Kursrückgang gut nutzen konnte.  

03.03.23 15:33

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhAKTIE IM FOKUS: Aixtron klar erholt

AKTIE IM FOKUS: Aixtron klar erholt - Warburg sieht Rückschlag als Kaufchance
FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX Broker) -

Nach schwachem Vortag haben sich die Aktien von Aixtron am Freitag gut gefangen. Die Papiere des Chip-Ausrüsters erholten sich um bis zu 4,2 Prozent und konnten damit die 100- und 50-Tage-Linien doch noch halten.

FRANKFURT Warburg-Experte Malte Schaumann sah den schwachen Donnerstag als Kaufchance. Auslöser sei wie bei anderen aus dem Bereich Siliziumkarbid (SiC) der Investorentag von Tesla gewesen, so Schaumann. Der Elektroautobauer habe eine Folie gezeigt, wonach in der Modellreihe beziehungsweise dem Antriebsstrang der nächsten Generation drei Viertel weniger SiC-Komponenten verbaut werden sollen.

Bei der Beurteilung der Konsequenzen müsse man aber genau hinschauen, erklärte der Experte. So sei beispielsweise die Referenzgröße für das Reduktionsziel völlig unklar. Man dürfe jedoch annehmen, dass sich die Texaner auf seit 2017 im Modell 3 verbaute SiC-Module der zweiten Generation von STMicro bezögen. Die dritte Generation habe bereits klare Vorteile gebracht, die die vierte Generation nun nochmals ausbaue. Der Erfolgsweg von SiC bleibe vom Tesla-Statement unbeirrt./ag/mis


Kloben (poste das mal zur Beruhigung hier)


03.03.23 16:33

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Infineon buys GaN systems

GaN Power semiconductors begins to compete with SiC the voltage goes up to >900V class.  We cannot rule out the possibility that Tesla is switching some of the SiC chips to GaN for EV's.  Benefit of using GaN-on-Si is that it does not require the expensive SiC substrate. Either way Aixtron's tools are used.  

03.03.23 19:23

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhThank you CWL1

sounds like a win-win to me either way Tesla goes.  

06.03.23 11:35

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhNoch einmal Tesla

Wenig Siliziumcarbid, keine Seltenen Erden: Tesla erschreckt mit Anleger-Tag 2 Branchen

Zudem schickte er auch Aktien aus Zulieferer-Branchen auf eine Talfahrt, denn in Zukunft will Tesla weniger Siliziumcarbid und keine Seltenen Erden mehr verwenden.

Test-Hersteller reagiert auf Tesla

Der Einsatz von Siliziumcarbid-Chips in der Leistungselektronik für Elektroautos macht die von Tesla effizienter, und wird wie andere Innovationen verspätet auch von anderen Herstellern übernommen. Doch bei Tesla soll der Anteil solcher Chips in seiner nächsten Antriebsgeneration um volle 75 Prozent reduziert werden, sagte der Leiter dieses Bereiches bei dem Anleger-Tag. Das führte dazu, dass verschiedene Chip-Aktien einschließlich der von STMicroelektronics als dem führenden Ausrüster am Donnerstag verloren.

Wohl am schwersten erwischte es Aehr Test Systems, dessen Aktie am Donnerstag rund 15 Prozent abrutschte. Noch am selben Tag reagierte das Unternehmen mit einer detaillierten Presse-Mitteilung auf den Anleger-Tag bei Tesla und bezog sich mehrmals direkt darauf. Aehr gehe nicht davon aus, dass sich die Nachfrage nach den eigenen Test-Systemen im selben Maß verringern werde, heißt es darin. Tesla habe erkennen lassen, dass die Umstellung nur die nächste Elektroauto-Generation betreffe und zudem größere und stärkere Chips verwenden zu wollen. Die Zahl der zu testenden Wafer werde deshalb weniger stark sinken.

Ich denke die Marktreaktion war völlig übertrieben.

laugthingcool baggo-mh


06.03.23 14:02

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1EV: GaN vs SiC

The mainstream position of SiC is difficult to shake, and the chances of GaN substitute candidates are greatly increase

Han Qingxiu, Taipei  2023-03-06

Tesla announced that the next generation of electric vehicles will reduce the amount of silicon carbide (SiC) by 75%, causing an uproar in the industry. Relevant supply chain operators believe that how to replace SiC at this stage is still unknown. It is expected that it will be difficult to change SiC in the next 3 years The mainstream position of electric vehicles, especially high-end electric vehicles. If the heat dissipation problem can be effectively improved, the application field of gallium nitride (GaN) power components will be greatly expanded, and it is expected to become the best solution for alternative materials.

Since SiC power components can operate under high power and high voltage conditions, and provide high power conversion efficiency requirements, they are regarded as the primary development option for electric vehicles, industry and energy fields, while the main target market of GaN is different, from 3C fast charging , communications, and broadband are the priority development targets, but in recent years, it has gradually developed towards data center power supplies, on-board chargers (OBC), electric vehicles, and industrial control.

Those familiar with the compound semiconductor industry pointed out that the biggest difference between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is that the engine is replaced by an electric motor, and the key will be to use SiC to meet the performance requirements of high voltage and high current, and to exert excellent heat dissipation performance.

Although the traditional Si material is mature and cheap, it is always difficult to improve the heat dissipation problem, which has become an inherent obstacle and bottleneck. Therefore, if Tesla wants to greatly reduce the use of silicon carbide, it is expected that the heat dissipation improvement may be improved through the rear module side. The actual results It remains to be seen, and the industry is still dubious at this stage, and it is expected that there is little chance of overturning SiC in the short term.

In terms of technology and performance, GaN not only has the ability to withstand high frequency, high voltage, and high current, but most importantly, it is more cost-competitive than SiC, but the only difference compared to SiC is that GaN has poor heat dissipation performance, so there are currently few in the industry. Focusing on high-current automotive motor switching devices, it is generally expected to be used in applications such as broadband, Internet communication, or small-scale power control such as fast charging. As for the part in the field of vehicle devices, it has also begun to be introduced in such as USB charging, entertainment system switches, etc.

With the increasingly fierce competition in the electric vehicle market, Tesla is facing pressure to reduce material costs. The industry also speculates that Tesla?s announcement to reduce the use of SiC, in addition to asking suppliers to lower prices, may also launch low- and medium-priced models in the future. Pave the way.

Due to the low motor current requirements of mid-to-low-end cars, the technological development of GaN power components is expected to become a new force in automotive semiconductors, increasing the imagination of GaN application growth.

Because GaN power devices are limited by the growth ability of materials, the industry is currently dominated by heteroepitaxy structures, including GaN on Si and GaN on SiC, but some companies are also developing high-order GaN on GaN homogeneous epitaxy structures. It can withstand higher current and power, but the price will not be cheaper than SiC. It is not expected to be considered by Tesla to reduce costs.

Although GaN is subjected to high-voltage current, the thickness of the wafer must be thickened, otherwise it may cause problems such as wafer deformation, but the industry believes that the manufacturing process will be improved with the development of technology. In other words, with the effective improvement of heat dissipation, GaN may one day become a Alternatives to replace SiC and create a new battlefield for automotive semiconductors.

In addition to TSMC, Hanlei and other early investors, Jingcheng Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Ennostar Group, is also actively participating in the GaN battle. Jingcheng pointed out that due to the decline in consumer electronics demand in 2022, new projects for Micro LED development will increase significantly. Jingcheng?s annual revenue is close to NT$400 million, an annual growth rate of about three times.

Although the second half of the year is mainly supported by the increase in Micro LED revenue, new GaN projects will be launched in charging or RF communication. 5G RF communication has already been verified by two customers. Although the progress of bulk acoustic wave filter (BAW filter) is delayed, However, the kinetic energy of large-scale shipments in the second half of 2023 is optimistic.

Regarding the expansion of GaN applications, Ennostar believes that it is expected to bear fruit in the second half of 2023. In addition to fast charging, there are growth opportunities for electronic component motherboards or power supply applications, and hopes to gain more market share in the terminal application market.

However, there is little chance of achieving a loss in 2023, and the monthly loss depends on the performance of shipments. It is expected that the monthly revenue will reach 100 million yuan, and the loss will be expected. By 2024, the goal of a single month will be achieved.
The mainstream position of SiC is difficult to shake, and the chances of GaN substitute candidates are greatly increased.

08.03.23 15:04

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Onsemi and BMW signed long term SiC agreement

16.03.23 17:16

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Mitsubishi SiC

Mitsubishi Electric to Construct New Wafer Plant to Boost SiC Power Semiconductor Business
Will double previous 5-year investment plan to some 260 billion yen through March 2026.

March 14, 2023 02:10 AM Eastern Daylight Time
TOKYO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (TOKYO:6503) announced today that it will double a previously announced its investment plan to approximately 260 billion yen in the five-year period to March 2026 mainly for constructing a new wafer plant to increase production of silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors. Under the plan, Mitsubishi Electric expects to respond to rapidly increasing demand for SiC power semiconductors for electric vehicles as well as expanding markets for new applications that require, for example, low energy loss, high temperature operation or high-speed switching. The plan will also enable Mitsubishi Electric to contribute to the global green-transformation trend toward energy conservation and decarbonization.

A major portion of the increased investment, approximately 100 billion yen, will be used to construct a new 8-inch SiC wafer plant and enhance related production facilities. The new factory, which will incorporate an owned facility in the Shisui area of Kumamoto Prefecture, will produce large-diameter 8-inch SiC wafers, introduce a clean room featuring state-of-the-art energy efficiency and high-level automated production efficiency. In addition, the company will enhance its production facilities for 6-inch SiC wafers to meet growing demand in this sector as well.

In addition, Mitsubishi Electric will newly invest approximately 10 billion yen in a new factory that will consolidate existing operations, currently dispersed throughout the Fukuoka area, for the assembly and inspection of power semiconductors. The integration of design, development and production technology verification will greatly enhance the company's development capabilities and facilitate timely mass production in response to market demand. The remaining 20 billion yen, all new investment, will be targeted at equipment enhancements, environmental arrangements and related operations.  

16.03.23 17:33

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Mitsubishi Electric and Aixtron

Since Mitsubishi is an IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer), it is likely it has in-house epi capability for the new SiC wafer fabs.   Hard to imagine that it will grow its own SiC wafers then send them out for the epitaxy process.

Mitsubishi Electric (MELCO) is a customer of Aixtron on GaN-on-Si for power semiconductors.

16.03.23 23:29

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Resonac SiC epi wafers

Resonac Develops and Starts to Mass-produce Third Generation High-grade SiC Epitaxial Wafers

Resonac was renamed from Showa Denko which is a customer of Aixtron's G5 WWC for SiC.  

16.03.23 23:35

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Resonac (Showa Denko) Infineon Deal

Showa Denko renames and restructures, extends Infineon SiC deal
Business news | January 12, 2023
By Nick Flaherty

Resonac (formerly Showa Denko) in Japan has extended its deal for silicon carbide (SiC) wafers with Infineon Technologies as it restructures and renames.  

17.03.23 14:54

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1Epiworld adds another 75 SiC epi lines in 2023

Epiworld is a customer of Aixtron.

Read post #1288 about Epiworld adding 22 SiC epiwafer lines (tools) in 2022 to reach a total of 50 SiC tools by end of 2022.  That would be about 60m sales from Epiworld for Aixtron in 2022.

In 2023, Epiworld will add another 75 lines to add another 300,000 6"/8" SiC epiwafer capacity. That would be ~200m sales for Aixtron in 2023, if all goes to Aixtron.

"Among them, the main body of the 6-8 inch SiC epitaxial wafer research and development and industrialization project is Hantiancheng Electronic Technology (Xiamen) Co., Ltd. The project is located in Xiang'an High-tech Industrial Base, Xiamen City, and 75 new silicon carbide epitaxial wafer production lines have been added. (Supporting exhaust gas purifier), 1 set of pure water unit and other production equipment, it is estimated that the new production capacity will produce 300,000 silicon carbide epitaxial wafers per year."

Epiworld's Chinese name is Hantiancheng.  

20.03.23 13:33

1003 Postings, 2118 Tage CWL1LPE SiC

LPE is now a subsidiary of ASM International.  From the Q4 earnings of ASM:

"...The increase in new orders is partly driven by the acquisition of LPE, which experienced exceptionally strong orders in Q4, partially for delivery in the second half of 2023.... we expect LPE to generate revenue in excess of ?130 million in 2023, up from our previous forecast of more than ?100 million."

I believe the TYSIC (Tianyu) in China is the customer of LPE generating  its large revenue.  TYSIC is second to Epiworld in China on SiC epi wafers.  TYSIC's web site shows it uses LPE tools.  TYSIC is building an annual 170,000 6" SiC epi wafer capacity in 2023.

"Among the first batch of major projects to start in 2023, Tianyu Semiconductor headquarters, manufacturing center and R&D center construction projects have a total investment of 8 billion, with a construction area of ??about 240,000 square meters, and will build a large-scale production base of silicon carbide epitaxial wafers with an annual production capacity of 1.2 million pieces , It is expected to complete the construction of the first phase of annual production capacity of 170,000 pieces in 2023."

Note that 170,000 epi wafers would have needed 75x170000/300000=42  G5/G10  tools, which would have been ~120m.  I posted above that Epiworld is building a 300,000 epi wafer capacity requring 75 tools presumably using the AIXTRON's.  

22.03.23 10:41

1297 Postings, 4757 Tage baggo-mhDER Aktionär

trommelt mal wieder zum Einstieg.

In der Ausgabe vom 10.03 mit "Analyse" und Kaufempfehlung für PVA Tepla (KZ 29) und Aixtron (KZ 36).

Aixtron adressiert mehrere Wachstumsmärkte, die teilweise noch in einer frühen Entwicklungsphase sind. Die Visibilität ist groß, negative strukturelle Veränderungen sind nicht in Sicht.
Die Gefahr operativer Enttäuschungen ist damit als gering einzustufen.

Das größte Risiko bleibt die relativ hohe Bewertung mit dem 5-fachen Umsatz und einem 2023er-KGV von 25. Angesichts der starken Positionierung und den kontinuierlich wachsenden Orderbüchern ist das Ende der Fahnenstange trotzdem noch nicht erreicht.

laugthingcool baggo-mh


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