sehr guter beitrag aus dem Yahoo-board USA
"New investors welcome! You MUST read this 25-Nov-09 11:33 pm 1. Welcome aboard!
2. You need to know that APWR is still significantly undervalued. My personal opinion is that APWR has a forward PE of something around 3 based on upcoming contracts.
3. Why is APWR so cheap? There is a perception that APWR has failed to deliver in the past. This is true, but there are some pretty substantial mitigating circumstances. First obviously being the worldwide financial crisis. Many projects that were almost ready for execution had to be delayed. Another example is our Distributed Power Generation (DPG) deal with Thailand. Our CEO Mr Lu said in April that the $300M deal could close in June/July. Well here we are almost in December and it still hasn't closed. The political instability in Thailand has at least temporarily delayed that project longer than we could have anticipated. Another completely bogus argument is that "APWR has missed earnings the last 2 quarters". That is an absolute lie. Up to this point, APWR's bread and butter is with DPG projects. DPG projects are very expensive and the financing is complicated. For this reason, the company does not give Quarterly guidance. They only give annual Guidance. APWR has revised annual guidance UP once or twice this year. They missed nothing in Q1 and Q2.
4. We are anticipating a huge contract with US-Reg and Ceilo to build a 1.5 billion dollar wind farm in Texas. December 22nd is the deadline to close the deal and as best we can tell, everything looks good.
5. APWR has a binding MOU with Macau Natural Gas to develop a LNG plant. Initially a 1.5 billion dollar contract but phase 2 will likely be another 1.5-2 billion dollar contract. Mr Lu said the deal could close in 2009. Risk is low here since this is purely a Chinese deal and we just saw China is doubling spending on green energy projects.
6. Although delayed, the Thailand deal is still out there. We know our $300+ million dollar deal has been "expanded". That is still on the horizon.
7. Mr Lu, our CEO, is plain brilliant. He founded APWR after frustrations with inefficiencies with transmission loss in the national power grid. APWR's flagship DPG business allows power to be produced much closer to the customer and is far more efficient. Mr Lu is also totally in bed with the Chinese government. We recently stole, I mean stole, Evatech Solar in a buyout. Mr Lu talked the local government into funding something like 50% of the purchase price. Evatech solar will generate "$100 million" for APWR. Unknown if that means profit or if it means revenue. Margins will be a whopping 40% in a few years. Mr Lu has also formed the Shenyang Power Group (SPG), a consortium of Shenyang heavy equipment makers and local government. The plan is to take SPG public at some point. Mr Lu is SPG's CEO. APWR own's 60% of SPG, however we have apparently given up some ownership in exchange for something (presumably capital). These details should emerge soon.
8. APWR is the king of partnerships (re: Mr Lu, genius). Roughly ~25% of a wind turbine is the Gearbox. APWR and GE are building a gearbox plant in Shenyang and it will be operational in the fall of 2010. APWR will make 25% of the profits from the factory.
9. There are rumors of other major DPG deals in the works in the following countries: Thailand, Nigeria, India, Vietnam, Pakistan. There are also rumors of APWR entering the hydroelectric power arena.
10. APWR is developing 1 or 2 wind turbine factories in the United States. APWR also has the rights to sell turbines to South America.
11. APWR has the rights to 7 massive wind farms in Northern China. They also will at some point build the Bayan Nur wind factory. APWR can also expand their current factory (the biggest in China) by 30%."
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