@all time high bist du online? o. T.

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eröffnet am: 25.11.02 10:18 von: sir charles Anzahl Beiträge: 5
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25.11.02 10:18

5535 Postings, 8875 Tage sir charles@all time high bist du online? o. T.

25.11.02 10:21

8646 Postings, 8198 Tage all time highLeider , ist mein job.

25.11.02 10:22

5535 Postings, 8875 Tage sir charlesHabe meinen Banker gequält Argentinen

Argentinien in harten Verhandlungen mit dem IWF


Aus wirtschaftlicher Sicht noch keine Bodenbildung ersichtlich

In den letzten Monaten hat sich wirtschaftliche Lage nicht zum Besseren gewendet. Die einzelnen Komponenten des privaten Konsums (z.B. Supermarkt- und Autoverkäufe) fallen noch immer mit zweistelligen Raten gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Zusätzlich besteht für Unternehmen im Moment weder Möglichkeit (durch die Kreditverknappung auf Grund des maroden Bankensektors) noch Anreiz zu investieren.
Die Abwertung des Peso (aktuell Peso/USD bei 2,87) hat sich zwar nicht mehr weiter verstärkt, dies ist aber auf die nach wie vor intakten Kapitalverkehrskontrollen („corralito“) zurückzuführen, welche die Liquidität im Finanzsystem beeinträchtigen. Sollten die Kontrollen aufgehoben erwarten wir einen weiteren Abwertungsschub für die Währung.

Verhandlungen mit dem IWF spießen sich noch an der Budgetpolitik

Die argentinische Regierung kämpft nach wie vor mit der Implementierung eines Sanierungskonzeptes für die Wirtschaft. Die Verhandlungen mit dem IWF über ein neues Finanzpaket sind im vollen Gange. Die größten Schwierigkeiten und Differenzen gibt es wie erwartet beim Budget (Eindämmung der Defizite bei Bund und Provinzen). Eine glaubwürdige Fiskalpolitik könnte den Weg zu einer unabhängigen und dauerhaft tragbaren Geldpolitik erleichtern, womit die Wirtschaft längerfristig aus der Rezession finden könnte. Die argentinische Regierung muss also von der „Deficit-spending“ Politik der vergangenen Jahre Abstand nehmen und sowohl auf Bundes- als auch auf Provinzebene einen Primärüberschuss erwirtschaften. Bevor hier nicht eine klare Strategie zur Lösung der Probleme vorhanden ist, wird kein Geld vom IWF fließen und auch das Vertrauen in die Institutionen nicht zurückkehren. Nach wie vor ist das Risiko sehr hoch, dass sich eine Inflationsspirale in Gang setzt und das Land zur Hyperinflation zurückkehrt.

Ausblick für Eurobond-Investoren weiter unverändert

Die Regierung hat angekündigt, ca. 30 bis 45 Tage nach einer Einigung mit dem IWF die Umstrukturierungsverhandlungen für die Auslandsschulden zu starten. Sollte es zu einem Finanzpaket mit dem IWF kommen, ist zu erwarten, dass ein Großteil der Mittel zur Rekapitalisierung des Bankensektors und nicht zur Tilgung von Schulden verwendet wird. Wir rechnen deshalb nach wie vor mit deutlichen Nominal- und Kuponabschlägen sowie Laufzeitenausdehnungen für die internationalen Anleihen.
Hinsichtlich der Einschätzung über die weitere Entwicklung der Eurobond-Preise ändert sich an unserem Szenario seit Beginn des Jahres 2002 nichts. Investoren die noch investiert sind, empfehlen wir die Anleihen zu halten,  eine Neuanlage halten wir für verfrüht und auf Grund der noch vielen ungelösten Probleme zu riskant
 

25.11.02 10:24

8646 Postings, 8198 Tage all time highhey, vielen dank!!

26.11.02 09:44

5535 Postings, 8875 Tage sir charlesGuten Morgen, ich hoffe du bist des Englischen

mächtig. Latin America
Ing analyse tägl. Ausblick von heute

Argentina
Government seeks political support for IMF negotiation
Upon the return of Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna from Washington, DC, President Duhalde convened a meeting of all Argentina’s provincial governors and key legislative leaders. The meeting, which started on Sunday night, and continued yesterday sought both to symbolise political backing for the executive’s negotiating stance with the IMF thus far and to secure specific measures that would increase the likelihood of reaching an agreement with the Fund. Last week, the government exceeded 30 days of arrears on a significant World Bank payment, which it decided not to disburse until an agreement was reached with the IMF. However, it will surely not want to go beyond 60 days (ie, 14 December), when the World Bank would have to discontinue its disbursements for diverse social programmes in Argentina. Hence, the hurry to make progress with the IMF. Yesterday afternoon most of the governors and legislative leaders seemed prepared to provide the broad support President Duhalde was seeking, and to sign an agreement that was said to contain, among other points, the following commitments:
a) Secure legislative acceptance of President Duhalde’s resignation as of 25 May 2003, together with the calling for presidential elections for 27 April and, if necessary, a second round of voting on 18 May. (This, if confirmed, would represent a one month delay relative to the election date that had been previously announced.)
b) Secure agreements with provincial governments to achieve fiscal targets for 2003 agreed with the IMF.
c) Secure congressional approval for the 2003 budget before the year-end, with additional spending cuts.
d) Enact changes to the regulatory framework of the financial system (in line with IMF demands) to facilitate bank restructuring and to limit the personal liability of central bank officials involved in such transactions.
e) Complete congressional approval of a bill returning to congress the exclusive right to decide tax moratoria or forgiveness plans.
f) Stop any further changes to the country’s bankruptcy legislation and, specifically, commit not to legislate any further extension to the current freeze on bank mortgage foreclosures.
Even should such an agreement be signed, several points will require deeds and not just words from the provinces and congress to convince a sceptical IMF that genuine progress has been made. In this regard, the government’s agenda until 14 December is still a very busy and difficult one.
Industry sees a slight improvement in October
Industrial output in October was down 4.5% YoY but up 0.5% MoM (the latter in seasonally adjusted terms), according to the preliminary indicator released by INDEC. This came after a 2.6% MoM decline in September, repeating the volatility seen over the past six months, four of which saw MoM rises and the other two declines, leaving output 4.4% higher than it was in April (in seasonally adjusted terms). Production over the first ten months of the year was 13.4% lower than in the same period in 2001. Sectors performing best in October were tires (+37% YoY), glass (+26% YoY), and textiles (+25% YoY). Editorial and print (-34% YoY), white meats (-29% YoY), and synthetic fibres (-25%) did poorly. YTD; practically all sectors produced less than in the same period last year.
The mood in the industrial sector seemed slightly better than last month. The accompanying industry opinion poll shows 13% of respondents expecting demand for their products to rise (21% last month), 10% expecting a decline (vs 25%), and 77% no change (vs 54%). The extraordinary devaluation of the peso still showed little positive effect on shipments abroad. Regarding the outlook for November, 21% of those polled expected their exports to rise, 68% foresaw no change, and 11% actually anticipated them to decline.
Investment implication: Much remains to be done to secure an agreement with the IMF that merely rolls over 2003 obligations to the IFIs. This, the administration hopes, would provide enough economic stability to allow a maximum refocusing of its energies toward influencing the electoral outcome. Lasting structural solutions appear to have low priority for this government.
Chile
IMACEC and trade balance data point to continued economic stagnation
According to the central bank, the IMACEC index, a proxy for GDP growth, grew at a 2.1% YoY rate in September, versus growth of 1.7% in August. The figure was disappointing, given that the market consensus was for a 2.8% rate of growth. We note that there were two more working days in September 2002 versus September 2001. Trade balance data also released showed that Chile had an October trade surplus of US$361.6m, versus a US$140.8m surplus in October 2001. However, imports declined to US$1.25bn from US$1.45bn in October 2001, suggesting that consumer demand continues to exhibit sluggishness. In general, it appears that continued uncertainty about global growth, and high global risk aversion is continuing to affect Chile's economy in a negative fashion, and real GDP growth is likely to end the year at a disappointing 2.0% level. Although the central bank has been on the sidelines for the past three months because of concerns over inflationary pressures, the peso appreciation from CLP760/US$ to CLP701/US$ over the past month may alleviate them to some extent, clearing the way for additional rate cuts in early 2003. Nevertheless, we do not expect a sustained pickup in economic activity until the US and global growth grows unambiguously stronger, which for geopolitical reasons may not be until 2H03.
Investment implication: Those who hold long Chilean peso positions against the US$ might want to consider switching to long US$ positions if the currency breaks through the CLP700/US$ barrier.
Mexico
Short- and long-term yields declined at yesterday’s auction
Banco de Mexico informed that one- and three-month Cetes were sold to yield 7.24% and 7.62%, respectively.  On average, Cetes yields decreased by 55 basis points from their previous primary auction levels.  Five-year Bonos were auctioned at 10.23%, 23 basis points below their previous primary auction level (held one month ago) and 25 basis points below their previous week level.  A stronger peso is likely to be behind the decline in domestic yields.  Our view remains that domestic investors remain sceptic that the international environment will improve in the coming weeks.  We continue to believe that the peso will weaken and domestic yields will rise if an armed conflict in the Middle East materialises.  
Investment implication: We continue to believe that changes in the US outlook will dictate the direction of the peso and domestic yields in the medium term.  Our view is that the worse-than-expected economic data from the US will most likely translate into a weaker peso and higher domestic yields in coming weeks.  The passage of the electricity reform could trigger a short-lived peso rally and translate into lower domestic yields.
Gil Diaz urged legislators to approve a voluntary resign programme
Finance Minister, Gil Diaz, urged legislators to approve --within the 2003 Budget-- a voluntary resign program in order to reduce the number of civil servants in Mexico’s public sector.  Even though public sector expenditures will increase next year if the program is approved (because of civil servants’ liquidations), the program is intended to reduce public sector expenditures in the medium-term.  If the program is approved, the Finance Ministry and legislators acknowledged that the 2003 public sector deficit will be higher than the target of 0.5% of GDP.  Gil Diaz added that liquidations would be financed through an increase in debt.
Investment implication: We believe that the discussion of the 2003 Budget will be lengthy.  It will most likely erode the President's and the opposition parties' political capital.  Our belief is that the recent evolution of politics, which has brought about several confrontations between President Fox and the leading opposition parties, does not bode well for a timely approval of the 2003 Budget. Our view is that political noise arising from the negotiation in Congress of the 2003 Budget does not assist domestic yields at this juncture.


Philip Poole / Charles Robertson / Mateusz Szczurek / Gyorgy Barcza / Federico Thomsen / Jose M. de la Torre





 

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