As we know, VPE buys Aixtron's plants. I have posted enough about the rising VPE business perspectives after the Huawei ban.
I have read that article and refrained from posting given the current environment. My opinion has been that the size of the pie is the same. If Huawei sells less phones, Samsung, ZTE, Apple etc. would sell more. And if IQE sells less epi wafers, VPE would get more orders. No matter how the pie is cut, Aixtron gets the whole piece since Aixtron makes >90% of the MOCVD's that work. There are no competitors in sight. Short terms, Aixtron maybe affected as the re-balancing goes on and adjustment being shifted. However, this short term shift might even benefit Aixtron as some non-equilibrium is created and MCOVD's are not efficiently allocated. My opinion is that excess MOCVD's would be ordered to catch up a rush to manufacturing phenomenon.
I do not think those analysts that downgrade Aixtron have the insights or are able to see through the cloud.
All bets are off if there is a recession so the size of the pie shrinks. If so, everyone and all our stocks would be affected, not just Aixtron. The Applied Materials stock is rallying as I type. SP500 making new highs. Recession? Where? Doesn't Applied Materials sell necessary equipment to TSMC that makes all the necessary chips to all the cell phone manufacturers which also employ the VCSEL sensors and 5G components? That means the size of the pie stays the same, or even growing, just being re-cut.
All my opinion only. |