Forex Technicals:
- EUR/USD - the currency pullback pulled back significantly, and may seek support closer to 1.2020.. Disappointing to bulls, which were prepped to see another upswing which focused at 1.2350 next time around, it seems part of +basing action+ . So for now, there's no change in the positive short-term view. However, support above 1.2000 should materialize, then the market needs to push the currency above 1.2170 to swing the short-term weakness around. No change in the medium-term outlook likewise, which still argues for a bigger euro recovery down the road. We will be fine-tuning the possibility that we have seen a significant bottom at 1.1955, and once the low is firmly established by a break of 1.2170, then we will refocus at 1.2350, then to the 1.2500 area once again.
- GBP/USD - the currency has been to as high a 1.8355 after demolishing 1.8250 hypothetical resistance. But it pulled back to 1.8250, which may contain this short-lived weakness. The currency should make new moves towards the 1.8350 top later in the day. The currency should accelerate thereafter, with 1.8480 the next xobjective. No changes to the short-term view -- the 1.8040 low should be protected by support above 1.8200 -- break of 1.8350 suggests that the uptrend has resumed with 1.8700 as focus further out.
- USD/JPY - the currency is still on a recovery mode, but may find resistance at 110..20 soon. The rebound should be short-lived and may be followed by further weakness in the greenback. The currency pair should go lower further thereafter to 108.00 and then to 106.85.
- USD/CHF - the 1.2520 resistance was taken out with a great deal of panache -- bouyant stock market outlook took the premium away from the Swiss Franc.. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has held the official libor target range at 0.0% to 0.75% since March 2003. Although the KOF leading indicator has improved of late, inflation remains close to zero -- no upward pressure on rates. Moreover, with the ECB likely keeping rates on hold this year, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to move during the central bank’s quarterly policy review on June 17, tomorrow. Hence, we are seeing a +flight out of quality+,which may bring the currency pair to as high as 1.2750 - 1.2800. Nonetheless, the currency pair should resume the downtrend later in the week.
- USD/CAD -- the currency bumped into resistance at 1.3820, has been to 1.3660,and bounced back to 1.3760 so far. The recovery may end soon however. Expect the currency to fall further, probably back to the 1.3600 area later in the day. The downtrend should resume thereafter; the next downside target thereafter may still be the area of 1.3350.
- AUD/USD - the sharp rally has been to just under .7000, fell to .6885, and is back above .6900 again -- which suggests that the small downward correction is over. The .6800 trough was confirmed with a break of .6910, so we now start focusing at new xobjectives, the .7080 area to begin with. And further out .7200 beckons.
- NZD/USD - the currency has been to .6400, corrected back to .6286 but may be upwards bound again. The currency may make a new move towards the .6400 top, then towards the .6700 focus further out.
- EUR/JPY - the cross gave back most of its recent gains but support may have been seen at 132.40 area. The rally should resume soon, with 1.3700 as the next xobjective. Further upmove to 139.00 hopefully follows.
- EUR/CHF - the cross did pack enough momentum to carry the cross over the1.5200 hump. The cross has been to 1.5275 and will likely rally back towards the 1..5420 chart resistance later in the week.
- EUR/GBP - the cross found no support at .6620, and may reach .6560 area before the cross stabilizes. The cross should continue to recover from there, and go for just under .6700. Further out, the cross should make a new bid for .6812 chart xobjective thereafter.
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