in den nächsten 24 std. :-) FALLS der turnaround (ansatzweise) geschafft wird und FALLS EK die patente (bald) monetisiert wirds (sehr) gut werden, FALLS nicht, nicht!
unterschiedlichste einschätzungen haben wir ja hier zusammengetragen, jetzt liegst am CEO.
hier noch etwas, was man nicht so gerne liest:
RPT-PREVIEW-Investors to Kodak: show me the money
11/02 06:45 AM -------------------------------------------------- (Repeats Nov. 1 story to further subscribers)
* Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) due to report results on Thursday
* Investors want to see Kodak's (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) cash
* Wall Street seeks update on patent sale-analyst
* Analysts expect Q3 44 cts/shr loss on $1.65 bln rev
By Liana B. Baker
Nov 1 (Reuters) - Wall Street will be focused on how much cash Eastman Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) has left on its balance sheet along with hints of progress on a multibillion-dollar patent sale when the struggling photography pioneer reports quarterly results on Thursday.
The century-old loss-making American corporate icon is grappling with the specter of default by many measures, though Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) itself denies it is formulating bankruptcy plans. Analysts say the long-suffering company is depleting its coffers rapidly while laboring under a crushing debt burden.
Bankruptcy will be the elephant in the room when analysts grill longtime CEO Antonio Perez and his management team on Thursday.
"Either way you look at it, with the way Kodak's (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) credit ratings are and the way the debt instruments trade, it indicates a heightened probability of default," said Moody's analyst Richard Lane.
Evidence is mounting of distress at a company whose name was once synonymous with photography. The company was silent on its cash pile when it announced it had borrowed $160 million against its credit line in September. That news sent its shares free-falling to a 38-year-low.
Then on Sept. 30, its shares lost more than half their value when the company said it had hired law firm Jones Day, known for specializing in bankruptcy cases. [ID:nS1E78T1CZ]
Finally, about two weeks ago, Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) held talks to seek rescue financing of up to $900 million, according to sources and media reports. Sources also told Reuters that Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) had enlisted a consulting firm that specializes in restructuring, FTI.
A Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) spokesman said in an e-mailed statement that the company is always "assessing the financing strategies available to us," without elaborating.
Kodak's (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) shares rose five cents to $1.16 on Tuesday. They have fallen roughly 80 percent so far this year.
Lane expects Kodak's (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) core business to burn about $600 million to $700 million of cash in 2011 and for that pace to continue in 2012. Rafferty Capital Markets analyst Mark Kaufman expects Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) to have used $230 million in the third quarter.
The sign of life he will be looking for is whether Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) had been able to pay back any of its recent loans.
"We're now into the holiday season and I want to know where they stand on paying down their revolver and repaying the money they borrowed," Kaufman said.
PATENTS IN FOCUS
Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) , which has failed to turn an annual profit since 2007, could see its cash position improve after a successful patent sale. Financial advisor Lazard was hired by Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) in July about selling 1,100 patents related to digital imaging, which analysts say could be worth between $2 billion and $3 billion.
If Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) does not make an announcement regarding a sale or new licensing deals, Perez will have to at least come up with a timeline for the sale of its patents, analysts said.
"It's imperative that Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) doesn't clam up this time. They need to explain to people where they are in the process. It's been three months already so they should be able to put together some timeline," said Kaufman, from Rafferty Capital.
Investors will also listen for any progress on Kodak's (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) fight against Apple (AAPL:$396.51,00$-8.27,00-2.04%) and Research In Motion (RIMM:$19.30,00$-0.90,00-4.46%) at the International Trade Commission. The patent at the heart of that dispute is part of the portfolio Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) is shopping around. The new target date for a ruling on the case is Dec. 30.
Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) settled similar patent disputes with LG Corp and Samsung in 2009 and 2010. The two South Korean consumer electronics makers agreed to pay $400 million and $550 million to Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) , respectively, to license its technology.
And of course, there is the actual business -- which has been wilting for years in the face of intense competition from the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:$25.6400,$-0.9700,-3.65%) , Sony (SNE:$19.7100,$-1.2600,-6.01%) and Canon and struggling to come up with a new growth product.
CEO Perez has said that by 2012, the company will be "sustainable and profitable," with its new core businesses, consumer inkjet and commercial printing, leading the way.
Last quarter, Kodak's (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) consumer digital imaging group, which includes these printing businesses, saw its revenue fall 8 percent. Its losses from continuing operations did narrow to $92 million from a loss of $123 million a year earlier.
At least one shareholder and bondholder, Ken Luskin of Intrinsic Value Asset Managements, said he is skeptical of Perez's plan for success in these areas by 2012.
"There's no sign of a turnaround. Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) is bleeding worse than ever. All of a sudden we're going to ring in the year 2012 and everything will be OK?" Luskin said.
Analysts on average are expecting Kodak (EK:$1.1600,$0.0500,4.50%) to report a loss of 44 cents per share on revenue of $1.65 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. (Reporting by Liana B. Baker in New York, additional reporting by Sue Zeidler in Los Angeles and Caroline Humer in New York; Editing by Edwin Chan and Tim Dobbyn) |