von Bio Boy Scout YMB, der bei der Veranstaltung war.
Here's a summary from behind the scenes – all of the things you didn’t hear online. I found the overall mood of the room to be very positive, particularly as it pertained to the future of Arrowhead.
1) I was able to confirm with the CEO that none of the 4 candidates that were being discussed (APOC3, ANG3, ENaC, and HIF2) included triggers from the Novartis acquisition. The reason I asked is because 3 of the candidates have patents and patent applications that show up in patent searches that stem from Novartis, but it appears that Arrowhead developed their own triggers. This is actually great news, because the patent life won't be shortened by the Novartis filing dates. This allows for longer patent protection for these candidates.
2) A hedge fund analyst I spoke with told me that the reason they invested in Arrowhead is because of the latest drop in price after the announcement of the JNJ deal. They're interested in oligo technology and they believed this latest drop was a fantastic buying opportunity. The one big piece of information he relayed to me is that they look closely at competing drugs across different technology sectors, as this could greatly affect the valuation when results from all these competitors get released. They were especially interested because Arrowhead appears to be operating in areas that are less crowded. He was especially intrigued when Arrowhead addressed this concern during the presentation.
Not sure if you remember, but Arrowhead mentioned during their presentation (and in a private discussion I had with Bruce Given afterwards) that they screen their drug candidates on whether they can be addressed through other modalities, such as monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). If the condition could be addressed by mAbs then Arrowhead doesn't pursue it because of not only increased competition, but it also has proven success with the FDA and approval could be quicker and easier for mAbs. Hence, Arrowhead pipeline candidates intend to limit their competition from the start to only other RNAi companies. This makes it much easier for Analysts to stay on top of the competition, as an unintended competitor in a different space should not arise and affect the valuation. (On a personal note, I find this to be fantastic)
3) I met with an analyst representing one of the top institutional investors. Their take on the latest drop in stock price was more about the market dropping as a whole that amplified the JNJ news. Needless to say, they’re still in and a believer in Arrowhead.
4) When Arrowhead finally started to present, you could tell that they were fully confident in what they had and how the future will develop. Not surprising, as they just secured plenty of non-dilutive funding. Not sure how the CEO came across in the presentation online, but he was clearly telling the analysts in that room that they are a force to be reckoned with. I believe many others here nailed this analysis correctly.
5) After the presentation, I had a discussion with Bruce Given regarding a few aspects of their technology. One concern of particular was the development of dual triggers (like the one they have for ARO-HBV), and whether or not one of the triggers could have a dominant or competing effect over the other. He said that they screen for this in advance and they are careful to avoid such a combination.
Hope this summary helps. I know I may be sounding a lot like a cheerleader, but it’s hard not to after what I just saw. Management did a great job of anticipating the concerns of the analysts – they addressed patient groups, toxicity, development methods, candidate selection, trial designs, and they even make it easy for an analyst to identify competition. Comprehensive, sharp, and smart.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARWR/community?p=ARWR |
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