lscfa wrote: First Berlin report is too conservative.
- It calculates current market size of the skin lightening market at $8 billion and growing at 2%/yr.
But current market size is $13 billion and growing 15%/yr to $20 billion by 2018. (Deadlock
report and other sources)
- It assumes royalties start on the anti-diabetes IP in 8 years
- It assumes a 25% discount rate for both the skin lightening royalties (1 year away) and the antidiabetes royalties (8 years away)
- No value given for SBM's anti-aging IP ($200 billion market)
The skin lightening product makes up $0.52 of the $0.91 target price ($96 mil PV / 186.3 mil shs.)
If starting market size is adjusted to $13 billion from $8 billion and discount rate is lowered to 15% the PV increases to $1.53 => Target price = $1.92
Mkt Size 6% Mkt Sh. 5% Royalty PV @ 25%
7,458 447 22 18
7,607 456 23 15
7,759 466 23 12
7,914 475 24 10
8,073 484 24 8
8,234 494 25 6
8,399 504 25 5
8,567 514 26 4
8,738 524 26 4
8,913 535 27 3
9,091 545 27 2
9,273 556 28 2
9,459 568 28 2
9,648 579 29 1
9,841 590 30 1
10,037 602 30 1
10,238 614 31 1
10,443 627 31 1
10,652 639 32 0
10,865 652 33 0
11,082 665 33 0
11,304 678 34 0
11,530 692 35 0
11,761 706 35 0
11,996 720 36 0
PV Total = 97
Per Share 0.52
Mkt Size 6% Mkt Sh. 5% Royalty PV @ 15%
13,000 780 39 34
13,260 796 40 30
13,525 812 41 27
13,796 828 41 24
14,072 844 42 21
14,353 861 43 19
14,640 878 44 17
14,933 896 45 15
15,232 914 46 13
15,536 932 47 12
15,847 951 48 10
16,164 970 48 9
16,487 989 49 8
16,817 1,009 50 7
17,153 1,029 51 6
17,496 1,050 52 6
17,846 1,071 54 5
18,203 1,092 55 4
18,567 1,114 56 4
18,939 1,136 57 3
19,317 1,159 58 3
19,704 1,182 59 3
20,098 1,206 60 2
20,500 1,230 61 2
20,910 1,255 63 2
PV Total = 285
Per Share 1.53
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/...corp?postid=24120778 |
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