Sehr gute Zahlen präsentiert. Allerdings wird aktuell auch sehr viel investiert.
Jedoch was ich nicht nachvollziehen kann ist folgendes.
Das Managment hat ein großes Hedgebook mi knapp über 1,7 Millionen Unzen über die nächsten Jahre zum Average Preis von 3,242 aud Dollar. Das heißt konkret Sie machen sehr viel Verluste damit aktuell. Nicht nachvollziehbar. Jedoch ist das der Hauptgrund warum die Aktie nicht viel höher schon steht.
Kommentar dazu aus hotcopper
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John1305
363 Posts.
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13/02/25 12:15 Post #: 77838644
Analysis and Commentary on Northern Star Resources’ (NST) Hedging Strategy
1. NST’s Current Hedging Position
NST’s latest report confirms that as of 1H FY25, the company has:
1.67Moz of gold hedged at an average price of A$3,242/oz.
Hedge book maturity spread over multiple years, reducing near-term exposure to price volatility.
Spot gold price (as of today): A$4,616/oz, meaning hedged ounces are locked in at a A$1,374/oz discount to the current spot price.
Strategic Purpose of Hedging for NST
NST employs hedging selectively, balancing risk management with exposure to gold price upside. The key reasons for its hedging strategy include:
Cash Flow Stability for Growth Investments
NST has major capital commitments, including:
KCGM Mill Expansion (A$1.5B total)
De Grey Mining Acquisition
Ongoing sustaining and exploration capex.
Locking in a portion of future production at A$3,242/oz ensures guaranteed revenue to fund growth projects without relying on debt.
De-Risking Against Short-Term Price Volatility
While gold is in a bullish phase, it is historically volatile.
Hedging a portion of production protects NST from potential price pullbacks.
Gradual Hedge Roll-Off to Allow Upside Participation
NST does not fully hedge its production, meaning it still benefits from rising spot gold prices on unhedged ounces.
The hedge book rolls off over multiple years, meaning new production can be sold at market rates as hedged positions expire.
Impact of Hedging Given A$4,616/oz Spot Price
NST’s hedge price (A$3,242/oz) is currently ~30% lower than the spot price.
If all hedged ounces were sold today, NST would forgo A$2.3B in potential additional revenue (1.67Moz × A$1,374/oz).
However, unhedged production still benefits from current high prices, supporting strong margins.
Net Impact
Short-term revenue loss on hedged ounces, but long-term growth and financial stability outweigh this downside.
Hedging allowed NST to aggressively expand its operations without excessive debt or financial stress.
Should NST Reduce or Adjust Hedging?
With gold at record highs, NST could adjust its hedging strategy:
Reducing Hedge Commitments
As cash flows improve from higher gold prices, NST could unwind or reduce new hedges, allowing more production to be sold at spot prices.
This would ensure maximum upside capture in a rising gold price environment.
Shorter-Duration Hedging
Locking in higher gold prices for short-term production (e.g., next 6-12 months) rather than multi-year hedges would allow more flexibility.
Strategic Hedge Buybacks
If spot gold remains significantly higher, NST could consider buying back lower-priced hedge contracts at a manageable cost.
Conclusion: Smart Risk Management, But Room for Adjustments
NST’s hedging strategy has been effective in securing cash flow stability for its growth phase.
Despite missing out on short-term upside, NST retains long-term flexibility, with unhedged ounces still benefiting from high prices.
As gold prices remain strong, NST should consider reducing future hedge commitments or adjusting hedge durations to maximize upside potential.
Bottom Line: NST’s hedging is a conservative, risk-managed approach, but with gold at A$4,616/oz, a more flexible strategy moving forward could unlock greater shareholder value.
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