Lebt diese Forum noch? Trage mich mit dem Gedanken eines Einstiegs, da der Kurs momentan sehr attraktiv erscheint. Im September hatte HSBC eine lange Anaylse zu Posco:
Still positive from a medium- to long-term perspective. Current share price still offers good medium- to long-term return opportunity, in our view, given its 1) solid cash generation from economies of scale and high product quality, 2) plans for 23% capacity expansion until 2015 and 3) leadership in the profitable domestic market. We expect POSCO’s parent operating profit to decline 20% q-o-q to KRW850bn in 3Q12 from KRW1,057bn in 2Q12 due to weaker export price and remain flat q-o-q to KRW844bn in 4Q12 due to continued thin margin from external headwinds. Meanwhile, our China metals analyst believes the immediate impact of China’s stimulus (RMB800bn infrastructure project approval on 5 September 2012) on metals
demand will be slight (see Mine & Dime of 7 September).
Likely to fend off competition in auto steel. We expect POSCO to maintain over 9% of
parent operating margin and 7% of ROE until 2014, given its leadership in the domestic
market. Even in the auto steel market, where competition should intensify due to capacity
addition by Hyundai, POSCO could grow by 1) increasing sales to Japan to 1.6m ton in
2014 from 0.8m ton in 2012 as Japanese auto makers would use POSCO’s steel more to
improve cost competitiveness and avoid relying too much on one supplier after the merger
of Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal, 2) seeking new customers besides Hyundai,
Renault Nissan, and GM and 3) diversifying into emerging markets.
Global crude steel production capacity to increase 23% until 2015e. In India, POSCO
commenced production at its 450,000t pa automotive galvanised steel plant from May
2012 and plans to complete 1.8 mt CRC mills in June 2014e. With a 3 mt integrated mill
in Indonesia starting production from 2014, POSCO’s capacity should increase to 47 mt in
2015 from 38 mt in 2012e.
Group restructuring to improve balance sheet. Sale of KRW1.7trn of non-core assets
and KRW300bn proceeds from its subsidiary IPO could lead to KRW1.3trn free cash flow
in 2012e, thereby improving the balance sheet.
Reiterate OW; cut TP to KRW450,000. We cut our 2012e steel sales price by 1.2% and
2012e by EPS 3%, reducing our TP to KRW450,000 from KRW470,000. We lowered the
target PB multiple to 0.91x from 0.96x to reflect a change in our 2012e ROE to 7.4% from
7.6%. We believe this valuation is appropriate, given it is the average PB multiple since
January 2011 when domestic market competition intensified with the commencement of
Hyundai Steel’s second blast furnace. While our earnings estimates are 4% lower than
consensus, we believe the key share price drivers will be stable earnings growth, supported by the company’s market dominance, and growth prospects in emerging markets. |
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