15:21 20/04/2011 posted by paulo on lse worth the read I first posted this on RUM but here it is for my friends on LSE too... I have posted the excel document that I have used for these calcs online at the following address in case anyone wants to check it: http://www.fileserve.com/file/V3PtRYc However, here is a basic synopsis: The news shares in issue take the total amount of stock to: 1,876,079,072, however at the (very very conservative) pricing of $30 per barrel (thanks Big Kahuna for the info) the NAV of the P1 & P2 reserves are worth £92,303,550 (or 4.9p per share). If you chuck in the P3 then you get a figure of £132,686,353 (or 7.07p per share). In addition to this at a 30% rate of recover the perspective resources come to another 6 million barrels and a cash value of £115,379,438 NAV (an additional 6.15p per share). Finally we have the Herrera formation estimated at 100 million barrels which I give a 20% chance of success and also a 30% rate of recovery – this results in a figure of another 6 million barrels and another cash value of £115,379,438 NAV (an additional 6.15p per share). So in total Trinidad could be worth £363,445,230 or 19.37p per share at an oil price ofUS$75bbl WTI. Add in the £73,697,373 (or 4.61p) per share for North Chapman and the £24,351,313 (or 1.52p per share for East Cotton Valley) and we have potential assets of £461,493,916 (or 25.5p per share) not including Putnland or Georgia Please note that I am not saying that the value of the company is underpinned by this figure as there is still plenty of oil in there that is only potential and has not been found yet – but it does help to spread the risk. No here’s the really good bit. Yesterday (19th April 2011) the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) Price was $108 which adds another $33 to the net value of our oil (Big Kahuna- please check that this is right as I have estimated this based on the information that you previously gave me). If it stays like this then the values for Trinidad more than double. Based on the above figures Trinidad could now be worth: P1 & P2 = £193,837,456 (10.33p per share) P1, P2 & P3 = £278,641,343 (14.85 p per share) Prospective Resources (@30% recovery) = £242,296,820 (12.92p per share) Herrera (@20% Cos & 30% recovery) = £242,296,820 (12.92p per share) Total Value: £763,234,983 (40.68p per share) Add in both Texas = £861,238,669 (46.81p per share) It won’t be this high, but it won’t be as low as the first figures. In my mind, this is something worth getting excited about. Please note that my calcs have been done pretty quickly today and I may have made errors – I welcome any critiques and corrections to that we can all get something accurate and useable. By rockitman |