| DAILY UPDATE (February 11th to 13th – Flash Update No. 21 Has Been Posted) – Next Postings: Data Release (Feb 13th*), Commentary (Feb 15th**) // Annual Money Supply Growth (January M3 at 8.24%), Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar (January Turned Negative Year-to-Year) and the Fully Seasonally Adjusted Broader Unemployment Rates (Jumped 0.2% in January) have been Posted on the Alternate Data Tab // Large Downside Payroll Benchmark Revisions Mean Major Downside GDP and Retail Sales Revisions / Benchmarking Eliminated 514,000 Jobs as of March 2019, Wiping Out 20% of the Prior Year’s Growth / 50-Year Low Unemployment of 3.50% in December Jumped to 3.58% in January, Otherwise Still at a 50-Year Low / Broader U.6 and ShadowStats Alternate Rates Jumped by 0.2% / Recession Signals Intensified for the FOMC-Battered GDP / Downside Headline GDP Revisions Also Were Implied by Trade-Deficit Revisions / The Real Trade Deficit Deepened in Revision for Fourth-Quarter 2019 and Full-Year 2019, Indicating Downside Revisions Pending for Related Periods of Real GDP Growth / Even So, Hit by Rate Hikes, the Initial Estimate of Full-Year 2019 Real GDP Growth of 2.33% Was at a Three-Year Low / Annualized Initial Real 4q2019 GDP Growth of 2.08% Appeared Overly Optimistic Against Underlying Hard Data / Full-Year 2019 Versus 2018 Construction Spending, and Private New Residential Construction Spending, Declined Both Before and After Adjustment for Inflation |
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