Liebe Leute,
als Inhaber eines Portefeuilles dessen Anteil an Internetwerten von April bis August dieses Jahres nicht gerade Freude gemacht hat, befriedigt es doch, auf die letzte Woche zu blicken, gerade in Anbetracht des Blutbads am Neuen Markt. Ich persoenlich bin davon ueberzeugt, dass wir im Laufe des Jahres zumindest in ausgewaehlten Werten nahe an die alten Highs laufen koennten. Folgender Artikel soll zur Orientierung dienen.
Gruesse,
Frodo
Are Net stocks a safe haven?
AOL gets access relief, Ariba hits new high
By Bambi Francisco, CBS
MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:51 PM ET Sep 24, 1999
Internet Daily
Net Headlines
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- As the overall market
struggled, Internet stocks, led by America Online, ended
the day and the week with solid gains Friday, leading at
least some investors to view the resiliency as evidence
the cyber sector may be rising above the market's
choppiness.
"The Internet is the safest place to have
your money during times of
uncertainty," said Roy Howard, an
analyst at hedge fund Circle T
Partners.
"This is the growth area," said Leonard
Gross, at hedge fund The Garnett
Group. "Everything else is falling but
the Net stocks are still success
stories." Gross pointed to the Standard
& Poor's 500 and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, which are both
down about 4 percent since the start of
August, while the Goldman Sachs
Internet Index has held up.
On Friday, the18-stock Goldman Sachs
Internet Index rose 3.6 percent,
finishing the week up 4 percent to
431.43. The Amex Internet Index
added 2.7 percent to 314.26. Merrill
Lynch's Internet Holdrs, a basket of
the 20 largest Internet stocks by market
capitalization, rose 5 percent to 106
3/4. The security, which began trading Thursday, is
traded on the American Stock Exchange under the
ticker: (HHH: news, msgs).
"If you can get past the valuation hump," it's a good time
to buy, said Circle T's Howard. "We're entering a
seasonally strong quarter and an earthquake in Taiwan
doesn't affect their business."
"It just makes Taiwan a more frequently searched word
on Yahoo," he added.
Meanwhile, valuation concerns still rocked the Nasdaq
Composite, which slipped 0.3 percent, after losing 3.8
percent Thursday due to Microsoft (MSFT: news, msgs)
President Steve Ballmer's overvaluation remark See
Market Snapshot.
Access relief
America Online (AOL: news, msgs) ran up 10 1/16, or
12 percent, to 97 9/16 on relief that the leading Internet
access provider won't be pressured to drop its access
fees.
On Thursday, Microsoft said it would raise the price of
its MSN online service $2 a month to $21.95 per month.
The move suggested that it would be too costly and
difficult for players to get into the access business by
giving it way. It also suggested that consumers are
willing to pay for premium services, such as AOL's.
Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and PaineWebber
rejoiced that finally, at least one problem weighing on
AOL's stock, was no longer a concern.
Beaten down enough
Internet service providers, among the worst performers
this year, regained momentum after an early attempt on
Thursday, touched off by the merger between EarthLink
(ELNK: news, msgs) and MindSpring (MSPG: news,
msgs), fizzled by the close.
"They were washed out now, standing at about 50
percent off their highs," said Fred Moran, an Internet
analyst at Jefferies & Co., who recently initiated
coverage on five ISPs with a "buy" rating. "It's a good
time to pick these stocks up."
Moran believes the ISPs will report
faster-than-expected subscriber growth in the third
quarter. "They'll show that players like Microsoft
(MSFT: news, msgs), NetZero, Dell (DELL: news,
msgs) and Gateway (GTW: news, msgs), with their
price-discounting activities did not have any negative
impact on the growth of the independent players."
Moran expects AOL to pick up 1.2 million subscribers
in the quarter. EarthLink will likely gain 230,000 and
MindSpring is projected to add 55,000.
Shares of EarthLink rose 12 percent to 47 9/16 and
MindSpring shot up 9 percent to 30 1/16.
The main events
Goldman Sachs set the price of $16 a share on the latest
Net newbie, NetZero (NZRO: news, msgs) and watched
investors drive the stock up to 29 5/16 on its inaugural
day.
CNet (CNET: news, msgs) added 3 1/16, or 6 percent,
to 51 7/16 after rocketing 13 percent Thursday. Larry
Marcus, an Internet analyst at Deutsche Banc. Alex
Brown, upped his rating to a "strong buy" from a
"market perform." Marcus said CNet has the "best
commerce model on the Web."
Yahoo (YHOO: news, msgs) jumped 9 9/16, or 6
percent, to 183 5/16. Analysts expect the Net leader to
beat quarterly estimates when it reports in two weeks.
Earlier this week, the latest Media Metrix report
showed that Yahoo exceeded the industry average in
traffic growth to its site last month.
Priceline.com (PCLN: news, msgs) announced its plans
to extend its name your price concept to the grocery
business and a Jupiter Communications shopping report
projected $1 billion of holiday travel-related services
will be purchased online. Shares of Priceline gained 1/2
to 65 9/16. For the week, Priceline ran up 13 percent.
EBay (EBAY: news, msgs) shot up 7 13/16, or 6
percent, to 146 1/6, still 7 percent below the level it
traded before news of the Fair Market, Microsoft, Dell
Computer (DELL: news, msgs), Lycos (LCOS: news,
msgs), and ExciteAtHome (ATHM: news, msgs)
alliance to compete with the online auctioneer.
Amazing Ariba
It appears more corporations are automating their
procurement process. Thanks to Ariba (ARBA: news,
msgs).
Ariba (ARBA: news, msgs) bolted 25 23/32, or 17
percent, to an all-time high of 177. Helping to fuel the
surge, Credit Suisse First Boston started coverage on
the software wonder with a "buy" rating. The CSFB Net
team expects Ariba to announce new customers and
distribution partners next week when Ariba holds its
business-to-business conference in Burlingame, Calif.
Other analysts agree. "I think you'll here a lot of buzz
about the company picking up new customers," said Ian
Morton, an analyst at Hambrecht & Quist who launched
coverage on Ariba back in August with a "buy" rating.
As of August, Ariba had 60 suppliers in its network, 20
of which had signed on in just one month, Morton
added.
While Ariba currently generates revenue by charging its
clients a fee, Morton expects the next wave of
opportunity for Ariba will be to charge its
supplier-network.
Friday's nearly $1 billion gain in stock value ballooned
Ariba's market cap to $6.5 billion, even though many
analysts still expect the company to generate about $50
million this calendar year and lose $42 million. Ariba
went public at $23 on June 22. |
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