ähnlich wie '60 meint der Autor ,dass GTAT weit mehr kann und produziert als die Sapphire für Apple
Summary
I'm revisiting my GTAT estimates based on the last technology conference held on March 14.
Innovative GTAT has much more to its business than just sapphire.
I see a lot more upside in GTAT even after the last run.
...... I would like to bring to you again, an update of all of GT markets, and why I think that GT's stock price could reach even higher levels than I expected in my last article. So, enough talking, let's go down with the analysis. The GT puzzle has many parts to it. Only by understanding the business itself and the markets it operates in, an investor could truly see the great potential in GT in the next few years. The sapphire business, awesome as it is, is only one (big) piece of the puzzle that forms a great company.
I expect other small-screen Apple devices to utilize sapphire as their cover glass (iPod, iWatch). Morgan Stanley recently projected very high iWatch sales growth, ..
Accounting for the iWatch growth, I expect Apple-related revenues will grow at 15%/year for the next few years. I expect that non-Apple sapphire revenues will grow even faster, at 20%, mostly for the LED industry, which is forecasted to enjoy rapid growth in the next few years.
The Polysilicon Business
Just a week ago, GT announced that it signed a $336M agreement with Cosmos Chemicals Berhard to supply equipment and technology for a 25,000 metric ton per annum Polysilicon production facility in Malaysia. This deal comes on top of the OCI phase 4 deal, which is valued at $260M and is expected to be shipped in 2015. This is highly positive for GT, as it de-risks the dependence of the Polysilicon backlog on OCI. More than that, it teaches us that rising Polysilicon prices is already making producers reach investment decisions in respect of new facilities. I believe that Polysilicon revenues in 2015 will be in the range of $650M. In my opinion, it is still too early determine 2016 revenues, as this business is driven by large unpredictable contract wins. That said, in the recent technology presentation GT held on Friday, interesting information was presented by the company. For those of you familiar with the Polysilicon market, you know that current production capacity is substantially bigger than current global demand. Demand, driven by the exploding solar industry, is on the path to cause Polysilicon shortage beginning in 2016-2017. This will cause Polysilicon producers to expand their capacity, and the new 25,000 MTA facility in Malaysia is just the beginning
Thinking of GT opportunity as a dollar amount per 1 MTA capacity, we can think ahead about the Polysilicon business in the coming years. GT announced the Malaysian contract is worth $336M. $336M divided by 25,000 MTA is $13,440.
GT is not the only player in this market, but GT is the market leader. In 2012, GT estimated its share in this market at 70%. Even if we cut GT share to 50% just to be careful, we get the following:
2015 Polysilicon Orders: $60M
2016 Polysilicon Orders: $480M
2017 Polysilicon Orders: $753M
This forecast takes into account that the PV market will continue to grow (which I firmly believe) and Polysilicon manufacturers will be able (financially) to build new capacity.
The Merlin is a true game-changer by changing the way of connecting solar cells and building a solar module. Instead of connecting the cells in strings using tabs, GT invented a way of connecting the cells directly one to another, thus reducing silver paste consumption by about 80%.
I expect market adoption to be high given the appealing cost-reduction Merlin offers. Thus, I see the case for 20% market adoption as the most likely. But I think taking a margin of safety here will be the smartest thing to do until we actually see Merlin sales, so I assume $800M of Merlin revenues in 2018.
Let's sum up the PV business revenue expectation until 2018.
Merlin revenues (working backwards) will be $800M in 2018. $400M in 2017, $240M in 2016, and about $100M in 2015.
DSS revenues will be $40M in 2014, $120M in 2015, and $240M in 2016.
HiCz revenues will be $80M in 2014, $240M in 2015 and $480M in 2016.
Total PV segment sales will be $120M in 2014, $460M 2015, and $960M in 2016.
....http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ed-technologies-an-investor-manual
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