hier eine für mich recht zutreffende Analyse der Cannavest Aktie
"CANV is trading on the lows even after announcing a huge financing that will provide the company with expansion working capital.
CANV is not your typical "pot stock" in that it does real revenues, has real supply agreements in Europe, and apparently has real investors.
CANV is focused on a scale up of operations currently and has invested heavily into R&D - this could mean a near-term expansion of the product portfolio.
Fundamentals at CANV were never bad but clearly have shifted positive in light of recent events - consider CANV for a venture investment into the cannabis space.
CannaVest (OTCQB:CANV), trading just off the 52-week lows, is looking more and more like an excellent microcap play for those looking to enter the volatile but high potential cannabis space. While microcap investing does involve an elevated level of risk and a particular desire to act in a venture capacity it can be incredibly rewarding if you can identify inefficiencies or indiscriminate group selling within a sector.
I've been lucky enough to do this over the last few years with a few names but I've also missed big on a handful of names. Again, this market cap space is about taking targeted shots with measured risk. That said, I think CANV does offer an opening in light of some recent developments at the company.
For those unfamiliar:
"CannaVest Corp. develops, produces, markets and sells raw materials and end consumer products containing the hemp plant extract, Cannabidiol ("CBD"), to the nutraceutical, beauty care, pet care, specialty beverage and functional food sectors (SOURCE: seekingalpha.com)"
First, you should understand that I'm making the argument for a CANV consideration operating under the assumption that cannabis will continue to be legalized nationally and that cannabis derivative products like those sold by CANV will continue to achieve broader social acceptance. While this has already happened to a more than minimum level degree, CANV had ~$10.2 million in product sales in full year 2014, I expect a continued tailwind to be provided at cannabis derivatives are integrated into cultural norms. If I'm wrong on that, or if regulatory stances shift to being more closed off that could in turn press down on my thesis - that's a very real, very unpredictable risk that needs taken into account.
That said, CANV certainly isn't a "pot stock" as it has been grouped in and sold off as - you don't have $10 million plus full year revenues being a pot stock. CANV has real operations, real supply agreements with European suppliers, real distribution capacity, and apparently real investors.
CANV recently closed a $6.5 million financing with an institutional investor that will be provided in a series of tranches. The financing will be used for working capital as CANV looks to continue to scale up its operations. This financing along with liquidity already on the CANV balance sheet should go a long way into achieving company goals.
That's the other thing about CANV that's highly unusual for a microcap. CANV's balance sheet as of Q1/15 reporting looks solid. The company had, prior to the financing, $2.23 million in cash, $1.2 million in AR, $2.3 million in prepaid inventory, and $10.7 million in inventory. Of its total ~$23.4 million in assets only roughly $4.2 million was in Intangibles and Goodwill - such a light weighting is a rarity in the microcap space. CANV also only as Accounts Payable of ~$500,000 and no debt. Again, that's a great place to start.
Operationally, CANV reported ~$2.7 million in revenues for Q1/15 and would have reported an Adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the quarter if it had chosen to back out interest expense which is normally done. As it stands, CANV reported a negative Adjusted EBTIDA of ~$700,000 which is still near breakeven. That said the regression from positive GAAP operating income to negative GAAP operating income (and non-GAAP Adjusted EBTIDA for that matter) was entirely the result of increases to share based comp and a doubling of R&D - which should remain elevated due to an increase in the size of the R&D facility at CANV and the headcount addition in turn. CANV views its R&D, its existing product portfolio - which is expansive, and its history of innovation as significant competitive advantages and defense mechanisms. While the company intends to continue the level of R&D spend the total line item expense should see leverage as revenues scale higher.
It should also be noted that CANV just recently hired an industry veteran to bolster its natural products channel sales initiatives and recently refreshed its website to be more ecommerce friendly. With CANV products showing Y/Y growth in market penetration, as of early-April CANV reported its products being in 50 independent health food stores and 30 healthcare provider offices, I anticipate hearing reports of continued momentum as the year goes on.
Again, now with more working capital substantially more inventory on its balance sheet (roughly 400% increase Y/Y at Q1 reporting) I expect CANV to fill out its financials as the year progresses. CANV has slowly taken the steps needed to ensure as stable a scale up as possible. I don't anticipate CANV needing to execute another raise within the full year and I believe, depending on inventory turn speed, it may not need to raise outside of CAPEX for expansion ever again.
I think CANV is an option that should be considered by investors with a venture appetite looking for entry into what should be one of the fastest growing spaces over the next 5 years or so. This company has made significant fundamental improvements that I don't think should be ignored at today's pricing.
Good luck everybody.
RISKS:
CANV is a micro-cap with shares traded over the counter, where liquidity is often light, which is one of the reasons the stock is so cheap. You can buy the stock well below fair value, but that also means you may have a problem selling at fair value, or at all, in the future. Because of the illiquidity in CANV shares, you should only enter a position if you won't need the money in the near term.
Also, there is competition. The cannabis sector is competitive and while actual pure-play competition and competition at scale in CANV's space is limited there could be companies that enter that are better funded, have longer track records of operations, and/or are in what could be conceived as a better position to access the credit markets.
There is also execution risk. If management does try to significantly grow the business and increase market share organically by increasing expenses, the plan could suffer setbacks and the company could be forced to raise capital at inferior terms if it can raise capital at all. Simply because CANV is participating in a space with attractive historic economics and highly limited competition of scale this does not guarantee that CANV can or will have execution successes and/or will be able to raise funds in the future if necessary.
A final risk factor I'll mention is macro-sector commodity risk. CANV, while not being directly dependent on commodity pricing for revenues, is tethered to overall pricing in its space.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks."
Quelle: seekingalpha.com , Autor: Dallas Salazar |
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