Lynas die neue Chance

Rare Earth market returns stability

Beijing(Ruidow) 2017-8-15 With the increasing rare earth selling in the market from last Thursday, the abnormal rising price of rare earth from the past two weeks seemed to stop and starts to remain stable.

Pr-Nd oxide price remains at RMB500,000/tonne and more sellings have been concluded. The market is also becoming more active. Ga Oxide price stops rising and keeps at 200,000/tonne. Dy oxide price remains at RMB1.5 million/tonne from last Thursday. Ho oxide price concludes at RMB500,000/tonne with more deals concluded in the market.

For the future development trend of rare earth market, more participants think the supply is still tight, and the market may rise steadily in the long term with some small fluctuations .


https://metalevents.com/rare-earths-community/...et-returns-stability
 

Analysis of recent rare earth price surge

The Secretary for Magnetic Materials Lin Amley from China Rare Earth Industry Association recently paid a visit to several magnetic companies in China and also conducted some researches regarding the recent abnormal price fluctuations of rare earth:

According to the statistics, the magnet market is not as strong as people think because of application of NdFeB market did not appear to grow quickly or have any new growing potentials. At the first half of 2017, sintered NdFeB production increased by 3% compared with the same period in 2016. Medium and low-end product output declined.  The 2017 annual production is expected to be flat with 2016, so the demand for rare earth raw materials in the second half will not increase.

Earlier this year, rare earth raw material prices have been rising, especially the recent price fluctuations, causing attentions and concerns from the industry.

Sintered NdFeB producers hope that the price of rare earth raw materials maintain stable and can be expected to rise, which is conducive to a sustainable and healthy development of rare earth industry chain.

Due to the characteristics of sintered NdFeB production, it is normal for companies to reserve material for production. Most of the producers, especially large enterprises all have sufficient funds and a certain amount of raw materials, plus recycling during magnet processing, the raw material reserves are relatively adequate. if the end user does not increase the order (the actual situation is orders are reduced),  producers will not increase purchases in the short term, or even because of the surge in prices, company will delay their procurement process.

Sintered NdFeB users are particularly concerned about the volatility of rare earth raw materials and worry about the same situation in 2011 will happen again, which is most companies are at the wait-and-see mode, and a small number of companies are beginning to discuss possible impacts and potential product alternatives.

Raw material producers and sales companies believe that the rise in raw material prices this year is mainly due to market supply and demand imbalance. However. the recent abnormal price fluctuations is mainly caused by market speculation, part of the traders are hoarding raw materials, making the raw materials shortage even worse, coupled with some inaccurate and irresponsible information, the rare earth price was boosted irrationaly.

From China Rare Earth Industry Association-2007-08-15

https://metalevents.com/rare-earths-community/...price-surge-analysis  

China Rare Earth Quarterly Report(3)-SMM

Market Outlook: Rare Earth Price is expected to keep rising in Q3 2017 due to favorable polices and positive sentiment. Inspections for illegal rare earth mining by China’s Ministry of Industry & Information Technology will reduce rare earth output, the main factor behind price hike. Moreover, downstream enterpises are active in srock-building, and traders hold back sales with optimistic outlook. Anticipation of rare earh purchase by China’s State Reserves Bureau will also help price rise further.

Demand: Rare Earth demand from magnets and fluorescence sectors was stable in Q2 2017, and saw no significant decline in off-season.

Macro Front: China’s GDP grew 6.9% YoY in Q2 2017, a sign of positiive economy in the country, and other major economies continued revovering.

For the whole report of China Rare Earth Quarterly 2017, please click: China Rare Earth Quarterly 2017Q2(20170810)

https://metalevents.com/rare-earths-community  

Release Date: 22/08/17 15:09
Summary: Ceasing to be a substantial holder
Price Sensitive: No

http://m.asx.com.au/m/announcements.xhtml  

... und trotzdem steigt der Kurs. Entweder ist die Verwässerung in Summe schon eingepreist oder die neuen Aktien werden nicht direkt/einfach im Markt "entsorgt"  

Damals, als die Wandelanleihen ausgegeben wurden, sackte der Kurs so richtig ab...
Nebenbei war die Finanzierung auf tönernen Füßen...

Nun, wo Kreditraten zurückgezahlt werden, und die Wandelpapiere gewandelt werden...
was soll da noch passieren...?
Ich persönlich rechne mit einem Resplit 1:10 oder 1:100...

Lassen wir uns überraschen.... :D  

http://news.iguana2.com/macquaries/ASX/LYC/847706  

Du meinst 10:1 bzw.100:1 oder?  

Resplit, schon verstanden wie gemeint ist.  

ich bin wirklich lange dabei - so what. Danke nochmal für den zeitlichen Rückblick. Die Reaktion des Aktienkurses wundert mich trotzdem.  

Wie viele Aktien sind im Moment im Umlauf? 4.609 Mio. ?  

Jetzt 4,608927852 ausstehende Aktien, aufgerundet 4,61 Milliarden. Ob die Lady an einem Reverse Split arbeitet?  

nun kommen die xx Aktien noch hinzu
 

Castilloux is surprised that investors have not entered the CREE “energy metal frenzy” that was first observed in the lithium industry, and now also the cobalt industry, as manufacturers scramble to secure materials at the market low. He foresees investment demand for the CREEs heating up in the medium term, and it being “game on” for the advanced project developers

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/...-market-2017-08-22/rep_id:3650  

Aktienmenge fest...

Wenn der Markt passt, dann wird die Anzahl der Papiere nicht
viel ändern, sofern die nicht aufgrund einer Kapitalerhöhung ausgegeben wurden.


 

... Welche Marktkapitalisierung (z.B. 1,8bn, 3,5bn, ...) bei welchem Profit oder welchem Sales und bei welcher Aktienzahl (z.B. 7bn) erreicht werden kann...

Hat einer Prognosen/eigene Berechnungen 2017, 2018?




 

http://pulsenews.co.kr/...php?sc=30800028&year=2017&no=561221  

"China controlling about 90 percent of the world’s rare earth supply is not expanding the country’s overall production quota for rare earth materials, limiting their annual output at 155,000 tons for this year, unchanged from last year."

 

...ist laut Ariva:
Aktienanzahl 3.677 Mio. (Stand: 22.06.17)  
Marktkap. 386,1 Mio. €  

Bei Ing-Diba findet sich die Angaben:
Börsenwert 475 Mio. EUR.
2016 lag der Umsatz bei 191 Mio AUD, Ergebnis bei -57 AUD

Wenn Lynas 2017 Gewinne erwirtschaftet und Schulden abbaut, wird der Börsenwert m.E. steigen.  

...der letzten Zeit finden sich hier (Seite 6):
https://www.lynascorp.com/Pages/Reporting-centre-Quarterly-report.aspx

2017 war das erste "volle Produktionsjahr". Da sind die letzten drei Quartale 65, 69 und 79 Mio. umgesetzt worden. Das letzte Quartal wurde mehr als 100% umgesetzt laut Geschäftsbericht. Nimmt man die 65 Mio. als Durchschnitt an, würde man auf das Jahr hoch gerechnet 260 Mio umsetzen mit voraus. positivem Ergebnis.
Da scheint ein Börsenwert von weniger als einer halben Milliarde nicht zu viel. Einschränkend muss man aber sagen, wenn die Rohstoffpreise fallen, sinkt entsprechend auch der Umsatz stark.  

sind natürlich auf die Autobranchen focusiert, aber die anderen Segmente sollte man
im Auge  behalten. Z.B. die E-Bike's.
https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/...er-jahr-2016-importiert
 

https://equitystory.com.au/...ynas-corporation-lyc-building-momentum/  

Danke, sehr interessant. Wir sollten bald deutlich höhere Kurse sehen, wenn die Industrie für alternative Antriebe und Energiegewinnung mal loslegt.
Gruß Sth
p.s. Nur meine Meinung, keine Empfehlung  

...
diese Woche A$0,135 per share


vor 2 Wochen A$0,1125 per share

siehe Ceasing to be a substantial holder 09. August und 22. August
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/...amp;timeframe=Y&year=2017

 

http://www.ksta.de/region/rhein-berg-oberberg/...ltbelastend-28208354
Hoffenlich wissen wir zum Schluß was wir wollen.  

wir Idioten wollen Diesel!