Time to say goodbye

DOW durchstösst die Stochastik von unten (rechts grünen Kreis neben der roten Linie denken - Höhe 79,8). Update der Zeichung mache ich morgen Nachmittag. Vermutlich wird es bis Freitag nicht mehr zu einer Wende kommen.  

 

erstmal einen Widerstand dar. Wenn die 12000 fallen dann sind die 11750 nächtes Ziel. Man muss jedoch auch mit einer starken Rally bei 12000 rechnen ( bis 12400/500)  

meinst Du, dass die 12.000 halten werden?
 

Augenblick wo die 12000 nachhaltig geknackt werden (so 11900/30) plötzlich auch das Öl stark fällt und dadurch eine Zwischenrally ausgelöst wird. aus Sicht von 12 Monaten sehe ich den DOW unter 11000.

 

geht es nun wieder abwärts: grausam. Weitere 10% ... 20% ... 30% ..... 50% und 36 Monate lang? Kaufen wir künftig mit KGV = 5?  

Ölpreis bleibt weiter stark. Dieses WE gibt es wieder Beratungen mit der opec und Vorschläge zur Regulierung/Eindämmung der Ölspekulationsgeschäfte. Die "weil der Ölpreisstark fällt" Rally kann noch kommen. Nächsten Ziel (Unterstützung im DOW sollten die 11768 sein).  

März 08 Tiefs  

drehte der DOW schnell wieder nach oben. Tagestief 11.725,52
Es sieht nach einem Retest der 12000 in den nächsten Tagen aus.  

im gestrigen Handelsverlauf. Der Markt bleibt weiter schwach, man konnte schon am X-DAX nach 18 Uhr erkennnen das die Amis schwach schliessen werden. Der wurde im vorauseilenden Gehorsam schon runter getaxt da sind die Amis noch bei 11880 gewesen. Es sieht nach einem Seitwärtsgezappel bis Freitag aus. Die jetzt noch roten US-Futures können ganz schnell bis 14:30 wieder grün sein, so das der DAX sein Gap schliessen kann.  

schlecht aus. Fällt der Ölpreis deutlich sehen wir nochmal die 12000 im Juli, anderenfalls steht ein Test der 11000 an mit Ziel zur 10500.  

nach einem Test der 11000 aus.  

mit einem Ausverkauf beginnen ist eine gute Strategie. Das Überraschungsmomemt liegt auf der positiven Seite, da ist natürlich schöner bei tieferen Kursen einzusteigen. Wenn man vermutet das die Bilanzsaison schlecht läuft dann sollte man schon vorher ausgestiegen sein. Das sehen wir heute.  

sollte einsteigen, die Frage ist nur wann?  

am 7.7. strong short
am 8.7. strong long
am 9.7. strong short
am 10.7. hält die 11000? Oder passieren in der Nacht vom 9.7 zum 10.7 noch Wunder.    

Der DOW hat noch 50 Punkte zur 11000. Sollte schmelzen wie Butter.  

UPDATE 1-W.House presses Congress on Fannie-Freddie legisl'n
Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:30am EDT

WASHINGTON, July 11 (Reuters) - The "best thing" for Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) right now would be for Congress to pass new oversight legislation, the White House said on Friday, amid growing concerns about the mortgage giants' funding problems.

White House spokesman Tony Fratto declined to comment on what he called "any internal deliberations" when asked about a New York Times report that the government is considering taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if their troubles worsen.

Shares of the two government-sponsored entities, the nation's top providers of housing finance, plunged for a second day on Thursday as fears mounted over their ability to raise the capital they need to survive.

Fratto said President George W. Bush's economic advisers "always keep a close watch on the markets."

"The single best thing that could be accomplished right now with respect to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be for Congress to pass and send to the president the Senate version of GSE oversight legislation," he added.

Fannie and Freddie are generally viewed as having the implicit backing of Washington and are considered the last bastions of support for a U.S. housing market in its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

They have been under fire this week as investors questioned the companies' ability to raise enough capital to stay afloat.

The New York Times said the government is considering a plan that would place the companies into conservatorship, citing people briefed about the plan.  Continued...

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1147664920080711  

 

Die Amis machen sich völlig lächerlich.  

bewiesen. Fast 250 Punkte in 30 Minuten und das bei den Rahmenbedingungen sind nicht Resultat eines normalen Investors kurz vor dem WE.

Freddie Mac ist schon wieder bei -14%.  

Vor der Tür liegt ein riesiger Haufen Scheisse der jeden Tag größer wird. Zuerst war der Berg klein, mit dunklen Sonnenbrillen konnte man den Berg unsichtbar machen. Nachdem der Berg immer größer wurde und damit der Gestank sagte man sich das eine Entsorgung zu teuer ist und gab den Menschen Nasenklammern. Was man nicht riecht exitiert nicht.

:))  

Fannie Mae Ugly
July 12, 2008;

Investors continued to flee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac yesterday, almost as frantically as the political class tried to reassure everybody there was nothing to worry about. Allow us to sort the good (there isn't much) from the ugly.

In the good category, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson swatted back reports of a government "nationalization" of the companies – which would mean making explicit what has long been an implicit taxpayer guarantee of their liabilities. This would instantly add $5 trillion in liabilities to the federal balance sheet, doubling the U.S. public debt burden and putting America's AAA credit rating at risk. This is the nightmare scenario for taxpayers.

Less reassuringly, Mr. Paulson said, "our primary focus is supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form as they carry out their important mission." This suggests that Treasury thinks the two companies have enough capital, or can raise enough in private markets, to ride out any mortgage losses. We're not so sure, and neither are investors, who have kept bidding Fan and Fred shares to new lows on fears of insolvency.

The most immediate danger is that investors will shrink from rolling over the debt of the two companies, leading to a run a la Bear Stearns. Mr. Paulson is trying to reassure people that the companies are sound, but after Bear everyone has the heebie-jeebies. With so much on the line, we've been suggesting that Treasury and Congress step up now with a public capital injection to help the companies ride out their losses.

Yes, this would mean putting some taxpayer cash up front, but in the cause of avoiding the far greater risk of a collapse or Bear-like run. If the capital injection was made in the form of a subordinated debt or preferred stock offer, taxpayers would get a stake in the companies and some return on their investment once the crisis passes.

We haven't suddenly become socialists. What taxpayers need to understand is that Fannie and Freddie already practice socialism, albeit of the dishonest kind. Their profit is privatized but their risk is socialized. We're proposing a more honest form of socialism, with the prospect of long-term reform.

In return for putting up the cash, the taxpayers would also need some reassurance that this Fan and Fred debacle couldn't happen again. Thus their regulator would need the power to shrink their portfolios of mortgage-backed securities that have made them such high-risk monsters, and ultimately to wind the companies down. Apart from outright failure, the worst scenario would be a capital injection that left the companies free to commit the same mayhem all over again two or 10 years from now.

Now we get to the ugly: Congress. On Friday, Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) declared that Fannie and Freddie are "fundamentally strong," that fears about their capital are overwrought, and that "this is not a time to be panicking about this. These are viable, strong institutions." Yet he also said that one option under discussion is to let the two companies borrow from the Federal Reserve's discount window.

In other words, Mr. Dodd says the companies are so safe that the Fed may have to rescue them. What he really wants to do is to pass the buck – literally – to the Fed so he and Congress don't have to appropriate taxpayer money up front. Opening up the window would nonetheless be a giant step toward an explicit taxpayer guarantee of Fannie and Freddie debt. It would further poison the Fed's balance sheet, not to mention get it tangled up in the politics of the mortgage markets in a way that would jeopardize Fed independence.

And speaking of ugly, yesterday's markets showed one more nasty side effect of the Fannie Mae panic: fear of rising inflation. Gold popped by $23 an ounce, and at $965 is back at the heights it reached during the March run on Bear Stearns. Oil also bounced up as the dollar fell, a sign that investors think the Fed will react to the Fannie fears by delaying any monetary tightening even longer than it already has.

If there's any other good news in all this, it is that the scandal of Fannie and Freddie is at last coming into public focus. The Washington political class has nurtured and subsidized these financial beasts for decades in return for their campaign cash and lobbying support. Wall Street and the homebuilders also cashed in on the subsidized business, and also paid back Congress in cash and carry.

The losers have been the taxpayers, who will now have to pay the price for this collusion. Maybe the press corps will even start reporting how this vast confidence game could happen.  

http://www.faz.net/s/...7D7A0~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html?rss_finanzen  

ich sage mal kühn wir schneiden die 11000 heute noch butterweich durch.  

kann erfolgen. Übernehmen Sie Herr Bernanke!