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1: Signs and Portents.
AIG signaled the impending reverse split back in may of 09. There was
more than enough prior warning about this and there is no use crying
about it now as it will change nothing. The price slowly dropped as we
drew closer and closer to the shareholders meeting where the reverse
split was to be decided. A lot of people waited until the shareholders
meeting with the knowledge that if the reverse split was going to be
shot down then the price would immeadately skyrocket as shorters
breathed a sigh of relief and got back in. If however the reverse
split passed then the price would plummet as everyone scrambled to get
out. The reverse split passed and everyone freaked and tried to sell
as fast as possible. All stock was frozen as the reverse split occured
so as to keep the confusion to a minimum. You were told that this was
going to happen. AIG told you with a notice that was mailed to you.
People on these boards talked about it for months.
2: Why? OMG WHY?
The reason for the stock split is recovery. AIG took the fall for a
lot of companies during the bailout fiasco and in return, a lot of
government institutions are looking the other way while AIG does what
they want. What they want to do first off is clear up this debt and
move on. AIG is a huge company with a lot of assets and own a lot of
companies themselves. They were worth 800billion before all of this
started, they have not fallen as far as they have pretended to.
Instead of paying back the 180billion that they borrowed from the
government they will drag the loan out and find new and inventive ways
to say that they are paying it. One of which is stock. It's true that
you have to really dig to find these news articles as they are not
widely circulated, but they are out there. The government owned 80% of
AIG through it's stock. Now listen carefully. Instead of paying the
government with real life money or gold bars or some other tangible
form of currency, they are instead playing games. This is what they
are good at. This is what they have always been known for. They give
the government X amount of stock as a 'payment' and the government,
fully aware of what is going on, pretends to be stupid and accepts it.
AIG then pulls a 20:1 reverse stock split to make their shares small
and insignificant. AIG then creates more stock and sells it OR hands
it out as compensation. Remember all the whining about bonuses?
Internal documents in AIG have detailed that they will soon change
their policy on Bonuses... guess what, this is it. Now instead of
handing out cash, they will hand out stock and they hope this will
keep them out of the news.
Fortunately for us, this means they will have to keep their stock
price up. But lets not talk about that right now.
3: Miss-information
AIG is good at producing missinformation and have been playing the
field since day one. For the last month they haven't needed to however
since there were a lot of news outlets making them look sad and
pathetic and broke and on the verge of collapse. Nothing could be
farther from the truth. Remember that we are talking about a global
business that owns 800 planes. These are the guys that ran off to a
resort to celebrate their rip-off of the US government. AIG buys and
sells billion dollar companies EVERY SINGLE DAY all over the world.
They keep it quiet when they make large purchases and they make sure a
reporter is there to see it when they sell something. On top of this,
they have technically lost... NOTHING. All of those bundled sub-prime
mortages that everyone keeps talking about... what do you think? Do
you think they just dissapeared? This was the problem with the bailout
to begin with is that the banks were basically being paid to evict
people. Everyone in the country was saying 'Why doesn't the government
just use this money to pay off people's loans?' Well, that wouldn't
help their friends rip off the government now would they? I'm not
saying that AIG is going to make an incredible proffit off of
anything, I am however pointing out that EVERYTHING bad that has
happened to AIG is an illusion. It was an illusion that made AIG look
desperate... and it didn't come cheap.
AIG paid lobbyists tens of millions of dollars to get the ball rolling
on this ever since greenberg was thrown out. Don't be decieved by
thinking that this suddenly became an issue and the government decided
to intervene. There was bribery going on, there was lobbying going on
and yes... there were senate hearings about this long before the
government came forward and said 'We may have to bail out some
financial companies'.
4: What now?
The price will continue to fall but it does have a floor. You have to
understand that now that the shares have contracted they CAN BE
vulnerable to take over. How would you like to buy a 800 billion
dollar company for 145 million? AIG still looks sad and pathetic but
there is a floor here, there is a magic number that AIG will not allow
their stock price to go below.
A: They will not risk a buy out at any point in time, if some one even
looks at them funny they will ratchet up the price artificially.
B: They need the stock price to be high for a while so that they can
use it as bonus money.
C: They want to be left alone. You won't see much of anything untill
AIG gets clear of the media. The media is the only thing on this
planet that they fear.
Now, a poster on this forum suggested that the floor for AIG is
probably $15.00 and I agree. The new max will probably be at $40.00
for a while but this is going to be a long time in the making. What
does this mean for all of us?
5: The plan
-Next couple of months the price will hop around and trend downwards
towards $15 where it will stay. In actuality the price will continue
to trend downwards but AIG watchmen will pick it up every time it gets
below $15 to keep it there.
-Do not buy any more AIG untill it levels at $15 and who knows...
maybe we're wrong. Maybe it's $14 or $13. Wait untill it levels off
for a month or so before buying back in.
-Don't count on any more stock splits. I know that some of you are
hoping for a 2 for 1 or something to get you back in black but it's
not going to happen. AIG did this for a reason and that reason is to
facilitate their own interests.
-Don't listen to crazy talk of bankruptcy or mass sales of assets, not
unless AIG says it themselves. They are going to be doing a media
blackout for a while so the only place you will hear crazy talk like
that is from forums like this.
-After the dust has settled, AIG will begin to slowly raise the price
back up by inviting investors and promising steady gains. This may be
next year, it may be in the next couple of years, the important thing
for AIG is that the dust has cleared before they begin doing this.
These people (and their new board members) all come from stock-
oriented backgrounds and they will want a swift return to the days of
$100 a share but they won't even consider taking a step like this
until the media has competely forgotten about them.
-The next quater report will outline a loss. Don't be surprised by it.
You need to understand that they are not going to be chuckling about
record profits while the US government sits there in a Jane Pauley
interview talking about how much money AIG owes them. It will be a
loss but it will be a small one.
-Wait for the price to level and buy in, hold for a steady climb. This
is not for shorters (anymore). |
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