Washington Analysis report today...
"Still expect fourth amendment to PSPAs and FHFA capital rule near year-end. We continue to expect
the senior preferred shares to be deemed paid back as part of a fourth amendment to the PSPAs, despite
Treasury?s stake growing as a result of the letter agreements. We expect the GSEs to receive tax credits in amounts
equal to the difference between: (a) total dividend/sweep payments from the GSEs since 2008; and (b)
Treasury?s capital injections + 10% interest. This would be around $20-25 billion that we think is likely to serve
as a plank in the foundation of new capital at both entities.
We expect the fourth amendment to end the net worth sweep, in addition to pricing a periodic commitment fee
that compensates Treasury for the continued entity-level backstop of both GSEs (currently a ~$250 billion line
of credit).
Finally, we also expect FHFA to finalize its proposed post-conservatorship capital rule for the GSEs near yearend, or sometime in Q1 2020. We give the edge to the rule being finalized without having to be re-proposed, as
some observers have speculated. However, either way we do not see the timing of the capital rule as critical for
shareholders. In our opinion, FHFA merely needs to finalize the rule by mid-2020, so as to avoid restructuring
risk under a potential new administration (and new FHFA director) in 2021. |
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