""After surging above the $1,300 per ounce level last week for the first time since August, April Comex gold futures have stumbled lower amid a modest corrective pullback on Monday.
The near and medium term trends are bullish for April gold futures after the strong rally seen in recent weeks. But, gold momentum hit overbought momentum readings on the push through the $1,300 level last week and the bulls are simply tired and due for a rest.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), shown at the bottom of Figure 1 below, climbed as high as 76% last week, and any reading over the 70% zone is considered to be "overbought." Now, the momentum indicator has turned down from overbought levels, which is a short-term bearish signal and leaves the yellow metal vulnerable to a period of consolidation or downside correction.
......The $1,255 zone is support for gold and the yellow metal could slide back toward that zone in a correction without harming the near and medium term uptrends.
If the $1,255 area were to give way, next support lies at the 50% retracement at $1,238.60, which roughly coincides with the Dec. 9 high (which is acting as support) at $1,239.40.
On the upside, the $1,308.80 zone hit last week is now initial resistance for gold. A rally back above that ceiling would reawaken gold bulls, with targets at $1,3210.10 and then $1,347.20.
But, gold may need some time to "back and fill" before the bulls launch a strong attack on the $1,300 zone again. "" |
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