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  baggo-mh

 

AIXTRON : Nexperia uses AIXTRON equipment as it enters the SiC market

December 02, 2021 at 11:01 am EST

Herzogenrath/Germany, December 2, 2021 - Nexperia, the expert in essential semiconductor, is using AIXTRON SE (FSE: AIXA, ISIN DE000A0WMPJ6) production technology to enter the high performance SiC device market.

 

very good research!

thanks a lot

à la prochaine

Jossy

 

FG said the opto segment would be stable in 2024, but I believe it has better potential this year based on what I read about the activities at WIN Semi, VPEC, IQE, etc.

https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/iqe-interview-the-geopolitics-of-gan/
 

From a Taiwanese news two days ago.
----------------
Affected by the recovery of the smartphone market and increased demand for WiFi,  VPEC's performance continued to rise. The market expects that the performance in the second half of the new year will be better than that in the first half, and the full-year revenue is expected to exceed last year. As the world's leading manufacturer of gallium arsenide epitaxial crystals, VPEC has recently received orders from epitaxial crystals from Qualcomm power amplifiers (PA), with mass shipments starting from Q2. Together with the PA epitaxy orders from Qorvo, it has completely captured nearly 70% of the PA epitaxy orders for Apple's iPhone 16 series, making it the big winner for Apple's new phones this year.

Chairman Chen Jianliang said that the rise of AI mobile phones will drive the replacement wave of high-end mobile phones. Coupled with the expansion of 5G market penetration and the commercialization of WiFi 7, it will help increase the PA market demand, thereby driving upstream epitaxy demand. As the smartphone market improves, PA customers’ momentum for purchasing orders increases, and the company’s order visibility increases. In addition, the demand for optoelectronics in AI data centers has also driven the expansion of performance, and it is expected that operations will achieve another good performance this year. In the past, iPhone PA orders were mainly supplied by Avago, Qorvo, and Skyworks. This year, Qualcomm became the fourth supplier. Apple WWDC demonstrated a number of enhanced AI applications, and the market expects the iPhone's AI capabilities to stimulate sales and further drive demand in the iPhone supply chain  

From a 6/28 Taiwanese news  
----------------
WIN is a major foundry of gallium arsenide in the world, with a market share of over 60%. Its customers include Broadcom, Murata, Lumentum, Vanchip, etc.

Because WIN's customers misjudged the industry situation and placed over orders, WIN also actively expanded factories to meet customer demand at that time, resulting in an oversupply of the industry. At present, the inventory has been fully digested. Although the current capacity utilization rate has not yet reached full capacity, it is already better than 2022. It has been significantly improved from less than 30% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2024, the capacity utilization rate rose to 55%, to 60% in the second quarter, and will continue to increase to 65% in the third quarter.

The investors believe that the stable industry trend has turned upward, and the usage of PA units for 5G smart phones and Wi-Fi7 has increased significantly. It coincides with the peak season for US mobile phone customers to stock up, and themes with AI functions are expected to ferment. We are optimistic that the subsequent stocking volume will increase, and the market share that was lost in the past is expected to gradually return to WIN's hands. The investors estimate that WIN's revenue in 2024 is expected to increase by more than 30% annually...  

On June 28, according to Korean media reports, STMicroelectronics (ST) will upgrade its silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductor production process from 6 inches to 8 inches starting from the third quarter of next year. The plan aims to increase production and productivity and supply SiC power semiconductors to the market at a competitive price.

Francesco Muggeri, vice president of STMicroelectronics' power discrete and analog products division, said in an interview with reporters recently: "Currently, the mainstream size for producing SiC power semiconductors is 6 inches, but we plan to gradually shift to 8 inches starting from the third quarter of next year."

As wafer size increases, more chips can be produced per wafer, and the production cost of each chip decreases. SiC wafers are gradually changing from 6 inches to 8 inches.

STMicroelectronics plans to transition to 8-inch SiC wafers at its Catania, Italy, fab in the third quarter of next year, followed by its fab in Singapore. The Chinese fab, a joint venture with Sanan Optoelectronics, is expected to start producing 8-inch SiC wafers in the fourth quarter of the same year .
Currently, SiC power semiconductors are in short supply and prices remain high, but this situation is expected to stabilize.

Muzeri said: "The products sold now are from orders placed more than two years ago, and the prices are very high, but the quotations after 2027 are 15-20% lower than now. SiC semiconductors have been priced in to a certain extent."

As for concerns about stagnant growth in the global electric vehicle market, he said there was no big impact. Slower growth in some of the fastest-growing countries, such as Europe, the United States and South Korea, temporarily reduced demand, but did not cause a significant drop in semiconductor demand, he said.

“The number of semiconductors used in automotive production has increased, and demand for SiC power semiconductors remains strong,” said Muzeri. “In the case of electric vehicles, driving range can be increased by 18-20% when using SiC power semiconductors, and the adoption rate of future vehicles is expected to increase from the current 15% to 60%.”

 

but the stock keeps falling, over 50% since the high of 39  

Was sagt eigentlich Aixtron zu diesen mega Absturz unser so geliebten Qualitätsunternehmen?? Ich bin sehr Neugierig. Analis sind ja alle abgetaucht.  

many, many thanks for the very important information.
Unfortunately, I can't give you any more stars.

I found the statements by Rodney Pelzel, CTO of IQE, particularly interesting:

"It is key to our diversification strategy that has two thrusts with power and microLED. Today we manufacture GaN on Silicon in Massachusetts and have recently added two G5 reactors from Aixtron. We also have the original G5 for the group in St Mellon in Wales in a European Space Agency (ESA) program and engaged with imec programs as well."

The Newport magafoundry was put in place for GaAS VCSELs with ten G4 Aixtron and two G5's for GaN coming on line in October. "We are setting up very deliberately to have a very significantly to have a capability in the UK and US to give us global reach."

And otherwise with SiC we are only at the beginning...

Remain fully invested - also due to your information - and have therefore bought in.

Please keep up the good work!

Best regards

Jossy

 

Interesting news last night – a ‘profit warning’, which should rather support the stock in my view. In particular considering the ~50% share price decline ytd.

My initial thoughts:

New guidance (620-660m revs / 22-25% EBIT margin) at the top end equals more or less the current analyst consensus of EUR 657m and 23.9%, i.e. consensus shouldn’t move much on last night’s news. However, there will be some shifts within the sell side research community given the different views: Low end Hauck 630 / UBS 598 vs high end Jefferies 680 / Oddo 675 / DB 687. Given Aixtron still calculates with EUR/USD of 1.15, top end of the new guidance to be expected in my view.

Order entry is good news, in particular that the company expects order entry on a similar level (~180m) in the quarters ahead, which should support the view of a >EUR 700m revenue potential for 2025. Quite funny that Aixtron decided in Q1 to not provide any order entry outlook going forward, just to skip this policy a couple of months later, at least on a qualitative basis ;-)

Btw, I like the corporate communication to release these news so early in the quarter as it takes out a lot of uncertainty/speculation – well done, Aixtron (even if presumably driven by adhoc requirements)! Needless to say that the new mid guidance of EUR 640m is a different message than Aixtron’s “very likely high end of guidance” message in Q1…i.e. indeed there has been a negative development throughout the year. Which, however, does not justify a 50% share price decline in my view.

Your thoughts?  

I have expected to land and the lower end of the original guidance as the management has already warned. however, the ad-hoc surprised me and am a bit disappointed as I was just about to buy a second big position somewhere below 18 eur.
I am also positively surprised about the fast rebound of the OI. Having in mind the slow-down in EV I have expected a bounce up not before start of next year. It seems that we end up with a short lasting weekness in the OI. however, this makes think that the ongoing ramp-up of the manufacturers  in power electr. could inevitable lead to an oversupply in the next few years, if EV remains low.
Also, the dominant position of power el. in the OI reduces the diversification which is not good. It looks like optoel. is to slow down.

As to the stock price: nice rebound today. Nonetheless, I am not sure we will see prices 30+ in the next couple of months but who knows. Hopefully, the region around 20 will now become a solid base.  

New York-based Corning now expects core sales to be about $3.6 billion for the second quarter, compared with its previous forecast of about $3.4 billion. Analysts expect core sales of $3.41 billion, according to LSEG data.

A surge in demand for large-scale data centers to support growing adoption of generative AI has spurred investments in optical connectivity products provided by companies such as Corning.

All Corning's fiber optics in data centers need laser sources like VCSEL and edge emitting lasers which are > 90% made from Aixtron's G4 and G10-AsP.

Corning is up 12.4% today.
 

There are indications that Aixtron's new G10-SiC Chinese customer is Sanan at Hunan and Chongqing.

Previously I posted that Hunan Sanan has a JV with STMicro at Chongqing on SiC, and a SiC EPI equipment job opening by an undisclosed company in Chongqing seeking engineers with G5 experience.

Hunan Sanan's website shows only SiC products:
https://www.sanan-semiconductor.com/en

The below is a current SiC job opening at Hunan Sanan also seeking engineers with Aixtron experience.  

Epitaxial Equipment Engineer
Changsha-Yuelu District

Recruitment of deputy manager · Hunan Sanan Semiconductor Co., Ltd.

Job Responsibilities: 1. Develop equipment maintenance plans, participate in periodic equipment maintenance and handle equipment anomalies; 2. Develop various equipment operation manuals and management specifications, and improve existing operation manuals and specification documents; 3. Make relevant technical modifications to equipment for aging equipment hardware or process changes; 4. Perform installation and removal of new and relocated equipment, as well as equipment Move and other related matters; 5. Perform safety inspections and rectifications in relevant areas; 6. Assist in establishing a personnel training system, and regularly organize personnel training and skill assessments; 7. Provide timely feedback to the equipment supervisor on the equipment operation status and provide regular weekly reports; 8. Cooperate with the equipment supervisor to complete the equipment planning indicators; 9. Be responsible for the management of machine spare parts and put forward procurement needs in a timely manner. Qualifications: 1. Bachelor degree or above, majoring in machinery, electromechanical or automation, 2. More than three years of relevant work experience in semiconductor equipment, with experience in MOCVD/AXtron equipment.

 

Epitaxial Equipment Engineer

Chongqing-Shapingba District

verified Recruitment Manager · STMicroelectronics

Job Responsibilities: 1. Develop equipment maintenance plans, participate in periodic equipment maintenance and handle equipment anomalies; 2. Develop various equipment operation manuals and management specifications, and improve existing operation manuals and specification documents...

Qualifications: 1. Bachelor degree or above, majoring in machinery, electromechanical or automation, 2. 2-5 years of relevant work experience in semiconductor equipment, with experience in MOCVD/AXtron equipment.

Company Profile
STMicroelectronics Co., Ltd. was established in August 2023 and is located on Binhe South Road, Xiyong Microelectronics Park, Chongqing Hi-Tech Zone. With a registered capital of US$612 million, it was jointly funded by Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. (51%) and STMicroelectronics (China) Investment Co., Ltd. (49%). It is a car-grade power chip m

 

Aixtron hat ja im SiC Bereich 3 der Top 5 Kunden. Neben Wolfspeed ist dies lt. Jefferies nun auch Infineon.

Was denkst du wer der dritte Top 5 Kunde ist, ich denke, dass vieles für ST Micro spricht. Dann müsste jeoch der Consens für 2026 deutlich höher sein mit dem neuen Werk in Italien.

Danke und Grüße  

Hi Purdie,
Ich denke es ist ziemlich klar, dass Wolfspeed der lead customer (schon auf dem alten SIC Tool) war, gefolgt von OnSemi und jetzt Infineon.
STM befindet sich mE nach schon sehr lange in der evaluierungsphase und hier würde ich auf ein Dual sourcing tippen mit Aixtron und LPE (ASMi), die Frage ist dann wer welchen Anteil vom Kuchen erhält.

Viele Grüße,
Fel  

ja OnSemi hatte ich auch auf dem Schirm.

Dann wäre es wohl gut möglich, dass ST Micro bei der Umstellung auf die 200er Wafer in Q3 2025 und mit dem neuen Werk in Italien auf Aixtron wechselt. Ich glaube schon, dass Aixtron die besten SiC Anlagen baut.

Grüße

 

STM's new plant in Italy is 8" only and it might use the G10-SiC.  We just have to wait and see.

The Sanan-STM joint venture in Chongqing  is 8" only and will use the Aixtron tools, IMO.

The Sanan plant in Hunan was 6" only and is switching G10-SiC for the 8".

I have posted before that based on the TrednForce research that China's SiC epi equipment market was $181M in 2023 and Aixtron had only 5.1% market share, or $9m.  The vast majority of that market was on the 6".  

The projected 2024 SiC epi equipment market size is $289m.  From 2024 on, that market will be transitioning to 8".  Aixtron's win at Sanan and Sanan-STM JV is a good start.  

Regards,
CWL

 

 

 

appreciated you share this information.
I have thought that PLE has a much bigger share of chinese market and would have not thought that the market is much distributed (that many suppliers).
For the conclusion is: there is much to gain for Aix in terms of market share in a growth market.
However, the question is whether they will succeed.  I hear they are very confident of the tool performance on 8". If that is true indeed and the tool is superior to the competition, then these would be very bright prospects.
i am cautiously optimistic but don't have the visibility and knowledge to really make an educated guess about the development. I remember the management claiming a very good performance but what can we expect from the management to say? ;)  

would be surprising if the chinese don't choose Aixtron but they might have in mind that Aixtron may recieve a "dont sell to china anymore" note from the US/EU. They might compare chinese based companies and their costs and decide if thats better than having a risk to get cut off Aixtron machines.  

ehemals IR für Paion AG

....

wie denkt ihr über diese Personalie ?


 

... die Chinesen werden den Ausgang der Verhandlungen über die  Zölle der importierten E-Autos abwarten.  

Langt  die EU hier heftig zu ( wir in D sind ja nicht so dafür) ... Ja dann wird es für den
deutschen Mittelstand unschön.

 

From the Chinese press:

In May this year (2024), Sanan Semiconductor officially revealed that its chairman Lin Zhidong was recently invited to attend the sixth meeting of the China-France Entrepreneurs Committee.

During the meeting, Lin Zhidong introduced the latest progress of Hunan Sanan SiC project - the first phase of Hunan silicon carbide semiconductor industrialization project has been fully put into production, and the annual production capacity of SiC has reached 250,000 pieces (equivalent to 6 inches); the second phase of the project is progressing steadily, and will fully introduce the world's leading 8-inch production equipment and processes, and is scheduled to be put into production in the third quarter of this year . After the entire project reaches full production, it will achieve a total annual production capacity of 480,000 pieces.

--------------------------------

I have posted earlier that Hunan Sanan is seeking engineers with Aixtron experience.  It is logical to assume that Aixtron's G10-SiC is in play.

For 480,000 annual capacity, that would be about 50 G10-SiC.  However, Hunan Sanann might dual source to LPE which is also qualified as a "World's leading 8-inch production equipment".  I don't think any Chinese SiC equipments are qualified as "World leading".