Silver physical supply forecasted at 32347 tons in 2013; surplus 6,441 tons January 19, 2013 at 10:05
LONDON (Commodity Online): Barclays, quoting data from multiple sources forecast total physical supply of silver to reach 32347 tons in 2013, up by 0.8% when compared to 2012 estimates of 32,081 tons. Meanwhile, 2014 may see 32,775 tons in supplies, it said in a report.
Silver industrial demand is expected to reach 14,289 tons and photography demand at 1,806 tons. Jewellery and silver wares may demand 6,495 tons and official coins 3,015 tons.
[The US Mint alone has reported that its silver coin sales have already reached 149 tonnes in the first two weeks of January, just 40 tonnes shy of full-month sales in January 2012.]
Thus, total fabrication demand for silver may stand at 25,605 tons in 2013. That roughly equals 2012 estimates in fabrication demand at 25,618 tons.
Calculations say that implied physical balance for silver in 2013 may thus be at 6,741 tons, and discounting 300 tons in ETP flows, silver market surplus to the tune of 6,441 tons is forecast for 2013.
Consequently, the prices could rule at $32.5, the Bank noted. “Given our forecast for the market to remain in a sizeable surplus this year, investor interest remains key.” the Bank said.
Silver prices have started to recover after dipping towards $29/oz, levels last reached in August.
With the exception of Australia, Barclays expects global silver mine supply to be bolstered by net growth in Mexico, the US and Argentina, with expansions and new mines leading growth.Commodity Online is the largest global news and information provider on bullion, energy and agricultural commodities. The portal gives trading tips |