auf den meißten Watchlists. Natürlich, bei den meißten (oder allen?) ANALysten ist immer Vorsicht geboten... Egal, wo man sich informiert/durchliest (nur US-Analysten!), Kursziel von Cisco auf die nächsten 6-12 Monate zwischen 27 und 29 US$. Ganz wenige haben allerdings auch auf "sell" gestellt (von 30 ist das einer...). Keine Ahnung - habe auch keine Glaskugel. Ich bin aber auf 12 Mon. sehr zuversichtlich, daß wir die 25 auf diese Zeit locker knacken werden. Derweilen neben Aktien OS...? Ich nicht.
Info-Quelle: msn.com/cisco
Hunting for Value? Check Out Tech and Retail Sectors by: Whopper Investments April 07, 2011 | about: AEO, ARO, BBY, CSCO, DELL, GPS, HPQ, JCP, KR, KSS, M, MSFT, RSH Font Size: PrintEmail Recommend 0 Share this page
Share0 As the market continues its incredible run up, the market seems willing to pay an almost infinite multiple for high flying stocks, ignoring warning signals like insider selling, nose bleed multiples, and even SEC investigations (I’m looking at you, Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) and Salesforce.com (CRM)). However, two specific sectors of the market seem to have been completely ignored: The large-cap tech sector and the retail sector. Don't take my word for it; check out the valuation on 13 of the stocks I think look most attractive.
Pretty impressive -- across the whole group, there's an average P/E of just over 11 versus an average 5-year ROE of over 24%. In terms of EV / EBITDA, none of the stocks have an ebitda higher than 7, and the average EV / EBITDA is 5.25x versus an operating ROIC of almost 30%.
While investing in stocks this cheap is rewarding in itself, there are also a lot of catalysts to propel share higher. Most obviously, all of these companies are cheap enough to attract interest as merger candidates or for leveraged buyouts.
The retailers, of course, have been a pretty fertile place for LBOs in the recent past, and almost all of the names have been involved in multiple takeover rumors. (Radioshack, in particular, has been active in the takeover rumor space, but Aeropostale, Gap, and American Eagle have had several rumors swirling around them, Macy's and Kroger have been mentioned, and even Best Buy could be a target.)
However, even the large tech stocks could be a target, as there are strong balance sheets and tremendous free cash flow make them prime targets. Dell's been rumored as a "take private" company for years, and even Microsoft could represent a target for a PE firm to take over and break up.
Even without a takeover, there could be another catalyst for these stocks in the form of shareholder activism. Many of these stocks have been laggards for years, which tends to attract activists, especially when combined with the strong businesses and valuable assets many of these stocks have. J.C. Penney (JCP) has recently added activist Bill Ackman to the board, and hedge fund tycoon and Sears (SHLD) chair Eddie Lampert recently took a large stake in Macy's. Cisco, of course, is in the news today, as it prepares to be beseiged by activists pushing to reverse the slide in its share price and close underperforming divisions.
Of course, all these takeover rumors and activist participation are nice, but ultimately, investors in these companies should profit simply because they are investing in strong businesses with great cash flows at a wonderful price. Whether the markets continue their run up or start a new downtrend, shareholders today will likely significantly outperform the market.
Disclosure: I am long RSH, ARO. |
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