Potash Corp. MiniFuture Long !

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16.06.08 18:30
5

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimPotash Corp. MiniFuture Long !

My new Favorite !
Den ersten Knock Out mit fast 50 % plus verkauft,Alles in den neuen Schein,der mit attraktiverem Hebel die bessere Alternative darstellt angesichts der noch zu erwartenden Kursentwicklung der Potash Corporation.

50 % sollten es auf jeden Fall wieder werden,in nicht allzu ferner Zeit,gerne auch mehr...
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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)
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19.06.08 17:15
1

104 Postings, 5442 Tage vinhedohallo kibbuz

bin seit gestern mit 4000 st.dabei,viel glueck weiterhin  

24.06.08 01:53
1

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimWerden wir haben

Bei der Unsicherheit an den Börsen und angesichts dessen,daß die Aktie der Potash Corp. bereits so gut gelaufen und im Kurs steil angestiegen ist,beweist sie Stärke auf diesem hohen Niveau.
Der MiniFuture läuft um den EK herum...die Woche mal noch über 0,90 ?  ?
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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)
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24.06.08 02:00

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimPotash Corp - Börsenstar ? Ein Börsenbrief...

21.06.2008 10:10 Top Pick:

Potash Corp.: Einer der Börsenstars 2008

Leo Fasciocco vom US-Börsendienst „Ticker Tape Digest“ betrachtet die Märkte eher aus technischer Sicht.

Aktuell ist ihm dabei ein charttechnischer Ausbruch bei   Potash Corp.    (ISIN: CA73755L1076)    aufgefallen, der weiteres Aufwärtspotenzial freigesetzt hat. „Potash Corp. ist in Kanada ansässig und produziert Düngemittel in insgesamt 12 Produktionsstätten in den USA, Kanada und Südamerika.

Die gesamte Branche befindet sich schon seit längerer Zeit in einer Boomphase, denn Düngemittel werden überall auf der Welt stark nachgefragt. So ist es durch den Einsatz von mineralischen Düngern möglich, dem Boden exakt das zurückzugeben, was die Pflanzen ihm entzogen haben. Das Ergebnis: Die Bauern sind in der Lage, die Erträge pro Hektar zu steigern. Dabei machen die Kosten für die Düngemittel dennoch nur 2-3% der Gesamtkosten aus und können zudem noch über die höheren Preise an die Abnehmer weitergegeben werden.

Charttechnisch ist Potash Corp. derzeit sehr spannend.

So ist die Aktie in den vergangenen 12 Monaten um 170% gestiegen, im Vergleich zu einem 8% Verlust im S&P 500.

Erst kürzlich ist die Aktie aus einer siebenwöchigen Seitwärtsbewegung nach oben ausgebrochen.

Das hat Potash Corp. auf ein neues Hoch bei ansteigendem Volumen gehoben.

Vor allem sind zuletzt viele institutionelle Investoren in den Wert eingestiegen. Jetzt kommt es darauf an, dass Potash Corp. das positive Momentum weiter bestätigen kann.

Aktuell wird die Aktie nur mit einem KGV von 19 gehandelt. Das ist sehr niedrig angesichts der Tatsache, dass das erwartete Gewinnwachstum für 2009 bei 51% liegt. So beträgt das 2009er KGV auch nur noch 7,5.

Für uns bleibt die Aktie ein spekulativer Kauf mit einem Kursziel für die nächsten Monate von 265 Dollar und einem Stop-Kurs von 205 Dollar.“

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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)
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24.06.08 02:19

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimAgrium Potash CF Industries Kurse hoch !

FERTILIZER STOCKS SURGE TO HIGHS

Corn supplies could sink to a 35-year low over the course of the next 12 months - dismal news for food companies and alternative energy makers, but terrific for the fortunes of fertilizer makers.

Several have reached record levels, with Agrium (AGU) ahead 4%, Potash (POT) ahead 1%, and CF Industries higher by 1%, as well.

The department of agriculture said that global corn supplies could sink to the lowest levels since the early ’70s, as midwestern floodings wipes out a chunk of the crops planted earlier this year.

Merrill Lynch said that those conditions make the prospects for fertilizer makers very attractive.

The firm boosted price targets and estimates for the sector. Permalink | Trackback URL: http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2008/06/23/

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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)
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26.06.08 05:14

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimHola - Das war der Tag des Abwatschens

all der schönen Agro - Atar Aktien  ---

Minus 5 % und mehr bei Potash, Monsanto & Co,wieder mal gehen die Werte Nicht mit dem allgemeinen Markt,was ein wenig tröstet.
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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)

07.07.08 10:26

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimPotash Corp. - Trotzt der Wert allg. Trend ?

Ich hoffe doch, für KO Scheine mit hohem Hebel aber braucht man Nerven !

See: The Better Performing Half of Potash Corp. (Part I)

In order to better understand Potash Corp. (POT), it's necessary to dig deeper down to the level of, what I call the gross margin drivers and what Potash Corp calls gross margin contributers. I agree ,of course, that they contribute, but I think they contribute so much that, they either drive the company forward, or hold it back, drastically. These drivers are not the mobile machine operators that work deep down in the Potash mines, but rather the impacts of volume and price modified by the cost.

Starting with Potash, in 2007, the total gross margin increase was 351.2 million as we know from part one. This number now needs to get broken down into it's four underlying parts. Volume contributed 215.6 or 52%; Price contributed 199.5 or 48%; "Other" contributed 0.7 or 0%, rounded down. These three parts add up to 415.8 or 100%. In order to get back to the starting number, 351.2, the cost (64.6) must then be subtracted.

The "other", I'm told, reflects net impact of volume/price/cost on purchased and miscellaneous products. All these numbers have to add up correctly, or your knuckles will get whacked with that ruler, and both your ears will get pulled by my 6th grade math teacher, like mine allways did, until I learned to get it right.

The nitrogen segment reported a gross margin increase of 220.5. This breaks down to 85.5 or 30% attributed to Volume; 194.5 or 68% for Price; 7.1 or 2% for "other" to equal 287.1 or 100% for the subtotal, minus the cost of (66.6) to get back to 220.5. Meanwhile, the Phosphate segment reported 307.5 in gross margin increase, which gets broken down to 27.7 or 8% for Volume, 315.0 or 91% for Price, 3.6 or 1% for "other" to equal 346.3 or 100% for the subtotal, minus the cost of(38.8) to get back to 307.5. The combined segments are not relevent here, so they are just left out. The totals for the three segments are 328.8 or 31% for Volume, 709 or 68% for price, and 11.4 or 1% "other" to equal 1049.2 for the subtotal, minus 170.0 in cost to equal 879.2 or 100% of the total gross margin increase in the year 2007, a number mentioned in part one.

So, what do all these numbers tell us? Among other things, the curious fact that in the year 2007, the primary driver of the Potash segment increase was attributed to Volume not Price. Yet, all the big, bad Potash bears and bulls (I might add) have been telling us all along, that it's all about the price of Potash, while the volumes of Potash in 2007 have never even been mentioned! Simply amazing. What do these Potash bears and bulls eat for breakfast? Does anyone got a handle on that? The big price driven increases, once again never mentioned, were in Nitrogen and Phosphates, not Potash. What happened to the big Nitrogen and Phosphate bubbles?

Comparing apples to oranges to bananas, the Potash share of the total volume increase is 65.5%, Nitrogen 26%, and Phosphates 8.5%, to equal 100%. The Potash share of the total Price increase is 28%, Nitrogen 27%, and Phosphates 45%, to equal 100%. The "other" consists of 6% to Potash, 62% to Nitrogen, and 31% to Phosphates to equal 100%. So not only did Potash volumes drive the Potash segment increases, they also drove the volume increases of the entire company. In Price, it's Phosphates that was the primary driver, for the whole company. In the "other" department, it's Nitrogen that's in the driver's seat. So what kind of a company is this anyway? All we hear about is Potash.

Please notice that the percentages in the Nitrogen segment, apples to apples, closely resemble the percentages of the whole company. That means that the Nitrogen segment's effect is "neutral" when compared to the to the whole company, and can therefore be left out, in an apples to oranges comparison. Therefore comparing Potash to Phosphates, 89% of their COMBINED volume segment increases goes to Potash, while 11% goes to Phosphates. Price increases gets divided up into 39% for Potash, and 61% for Phosphates. The "other" increases go 16% to Potash, and 84% to Phosphates. So, what is driving this company?

By taking the total amount of 879.2 in gross margin increases in the year 2007, and breaking that down into the nine different drivers you get : 1) Phosphate Price at 315.0 or 30% 2) Potash Volume at 215.6 or 20%, 3) Potash Price at 199.5 or 19% 4) Nitrogen Price at 194.5 or 19%, 5) Nitrogen Volume at 85.5 or 8% 6) Phosphate Volume at 27.7 or 3%, 7) Nitrogen "other" at 7.1, 8) Phosphate "other" 3.6, and lastly 9) Potash "other at 0.7. The last three add up to 1% to equal 100%.

In light of all this, I have just one more question to ask, and will someone please answer. Is the market pricing this stock correctly or not?
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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)

08.07.08 01:13

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimPotash Corp. -- Up !

Potash Corp. Looks Good on the Pullback

by: Domenic Strazzulla posted on: July 07, 2008

Late last week, the commodities saw a pullback due to the global gloom and doom theory posited by the paranoid and super risk averse. Due to this pullback, I think that a lot of the commodity names are looking very attractive right now, and I would recommend taking this opportunity to start/add to your positions in some of the big commodity names.

One stock I feel is particularly attractive at these levels is Potash of Saskatchewan (POT).

POT is the world’s largest producer of fertilizer and produces 23% of the world’s supply. Interestingly enough, the company also controls 55% of the world’s unused supply, which it has strategically kept offline in order to keep fertilizer prices high.

Does that tactic sound familiar?

It should – it’s what the Saudis are doing to oil. That is why I like to think of POT as the Saudi Arabia of fertilizer.

I like POT because it is a great way to play the global agriculture boom. People around the world are eating more and better.

The Chinese are starting to incorporate more protein in their diets in the form of soy. As a middle class surfaces throughout the emerging markets, demand for food will increase exponentially. POT is in prime position to cash in on this demand for food.

The global agriculture party- like the commodity boom in general – has been going on from quite some time now.

But with the most recent pullback – from a 52 week high of 241 on June 19th to 210 today – has created a good opportunity to jump on the bandwagon.

Let’s Look at the Numbers   Potash is already up a lot, 163% in the last 52 weeks, but I still think there is room to run.

The F P/E comes in at about 10.39 (10.78 – 10 depending on the analyst), which is very attractive for a company that the S&P predicts will realize a CAGR of 35% over the next 3 years.

This $71 billion market capitalization company also sports a 26.86 % profit margin and a healthy current ratio of 1.45.

Why It’s Undervalued   I think POT is undervalued because of the recent pullback.

I believe that the pullback is a result of some profit taking but is mainly due to a shift in expectations of global growth.

There has been some recent talk of a global recession and the significant global demand destruction that will result from inflation combating central banks. While I think the global economy may slow from its recent historic steroidal growth, I in no way think that the party is over.

Conclusion

I like the agriculture sector and I like Potash of Saskatchewan, but the stock has run up for a while now. I would buy this one on the most recent pullback, but not all at once. More likely than not we have not seen the absolute bottom for POT, but I am comfortable starting to nibble at 210.

seekingalpha.com/article/83943-potash-corp-looks-good-on-the-pullback

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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)
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09.07.08 23:44

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimScheint sich zu bestätigen,daß Potash

Monsanto oder Agrium zu den Werten gehören,die dem anhaltenden Trend nach unten trotzen könnten,wenn wie zu erwarten die Börsen in Kürze kräftiger nachgeben und auch technische Gegenreaktionen kein Geschwätz von einer Seitwärtsbewegung mehr zu laßen,hofffe ich daß sich bei den Agrarperlen das Take Profit angesichts allgeminer Furcht & Panik in Grenzen halten wird...

Heut jedenfalls,ein schöner Tag für den Mini und die angepeilten 150 ? für Ende nächste Woche könnte Potash schaffen...

Allen Investierten,weiterhin viel Glück !
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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)
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10.07.08 11:50
1

369 Postings, 4925 Tage sebastianmsTop Thema - Potash wird noch abgehen!

Wollte gerade einen Thread aufmachen mit dem gleichen Thema und ebenfalls einem Hebelprodukt mit einer kurzen Laufzeit. Ich bevorzuge allerdings einen Call bis Mitte September. Wir werden wohl sicher ein earnigs upgrade haben.  

10.07.08 11:50
1

369 Postings, 4925 Tage sebastianmsTeil 1

In the year 2007, which might seem like ancient history to some people by now, Potash Corp (POT) reported 1,881.2 million as total gross margin. Of this amount, 912.3 or 48.5%, came from the over-hyped potash segment, while 968,9 or 51.5%, came from the under-hyped nitrogen and phosphate segments COMBINED, making them the larger contributors to the total gross margin. In other words, in 2007, the venerable Potash did not even live up to its own name, let alone my humble expectations.

A closer look reveals that,  the total gross margin increased by 879.2, from a base of 1,002 in 2006, which equates to an 88% increase. Not bad of course, but the potash segment share of that total gross margin increase was only 351.2, up from its base of 561.1 in 2006, which equates to a 63% increase.

Meanwhile, comparing apples to apples, the nitrogen and phosphate segments' COMBINED share of the gross margin increase was 528, up from a base of 440.9 in 2006, which equates to a 120% increase. Now comparing apples to oranges, which both need fertilizers by the way, the potash segment share of this total 879.2 gross margin increase was 351.2, which equals 40% of the total. The lion's share, 528 or 60%, can thereby be claimed by the nitrogen and phosphate complex.

Obviously, nitrogen and phosphates are lifting this company up, while potash is holding it down. Amazing, when you consider the prodigious amounts of bear and bubble-babble about potash that we are all obligated to hear. It all reminds me of certain other well known types of fertilizers, often used on farms, in days gone by. Potash Corp. doesn't attempt to produce these types of fertilizers, as the excessively large amounts and easy availability of these agricultural products lowers their value, and history suggests that prolonged use of them will not generate enough long term profits to justify their use in the first place. If only more people realized this basic agricultural fact.

Getting back to the original purpose of this article, it seems that not only did the forlorn nitrogen and phosphate complex contribute more to the total gross margin, it also contributed more to the total gross margin increase, and from a lower 2006 base than the potash segment did. This resulted in a percentage increase that nearly doubled the potash segment increase. So this half of the company is also clearly growing at a much faster rate than the potash segment. Please note that not only did the weak 63% potash growth rate not measure up to the strong 120% COMBINED growth rate of nitrogen and potash, it also couldn't even measure up to either one alone, as the nitrogen segment grew by 70%, while the phosphate segment grew by 245%. It's worth mentioning here that both the 63% and 70% numbers were mentioned in the annual report, but not the 245% number. I actually had to figure that one out by myself. Even my 6th grade math teacher would be pleased!

So, from all this it's plain to see that last year, the paltry and unpalatable potash performance was clearly part of the problem, and not part of the solution for poor paradoxical Potash Corp. But then again, "that was so last year", wasn't it? Or, was it ?

In conclusion, I am of the opinion that the disappointing 2007 stock performance of a feeble 201% gain can only be attributed to the general failure of the investment community to fully understand where the profits of this company were actually coming from. The extremely unlucky association in the haplass minds of deluded investors between the under performing potash segment and the company's ill-chosen name, has conspired to hold this unfortunate company's stock down to unrealistically low and unsustainable valuations all year long. The malevolent manner in which this was done has an uncanny resemblance to the fate of the deluded sailor in "The Tale Of The Ancient Mariner", when he foolishly tied that damned albatross around his very own neck, in the vain hope of preventing his own self-created bad luck from befalling him.

Just imagine what could have happened if the company had changed its name to "NitroPhos Corp." instead of Potash Corp. Then all of Wall Street's wonder boy analysts would have been calling it a big bad bubble by now, and we would all be fabulously rich from all the juicy profits from the nitrogen and phosphate complex, "The Better Performing Half of Potash Corp." annum 2007. Coming up, Part II.

Disclosure: Author holds a long position in POT  

10.07.08 11:51
1

369 Postings, 4925 Tage sebastianmsTeil 2

See: The Better Performing Half of Potash Corp. (Part I)

In order to better understand Potash Corp. (POT), it's necessary to dig deeper down to the level of, what I call the gross margin drivers and what Potash Corp calls gross margin contributers. I agree ,of course, that they contribute, but I think they contribute so much that, they either drive the company forward, or hold it back, drastically. These drivers are not the mobile machine operators that work deep down in the Potash mines, but rather the impacts of volume and price modified by the cost.

Starting with Potash, in 2007, the total gross margin increase was 351.2 million as we know from part one. This number now needs to get broken down into it's four underlying parts. Volume contributed 215.6 or 52%; Price contributed 199.5 or 48%; "Other" contributed 0.7 or 0%, rounded down. These three parts add up to 415.8 or 100%. In order to get back to the starting number, 351.2, the cost (64.6) must then be subtracted.

The "other", I'm told, reflects net impact of volume/price/cost on purchased and miscellaneous products. All these numbers have to add up correctly, or your knuckles will get whacked with that ruler, and both your ears will get pulled by my 6th grade math teacher, like mine allways did, until I learned to get it right.

The nitrogen segment reported a gross margin increase of 220.5. This breaks down to 85.5 or 30% attributed to Volume; 194.5 or 68% for Price; 7.1 or 2% for "other" to equal 287.1 or 100% for the subtotal, minus the cost of (66.6) to get back to 220.5. Meanwhile, the Phosphate segment reported 307.5 in gross margin increase, which gets broken down to 27.7 or 8% for Volume, 315.0 or 91% for Price, 3.6 or 1% for "other" to equal 346.3 or 100% for the subtotal, minus the cost of(38.8) to get back to 307.5. The combined segments are not relevent here, so they are just left out. The totals for the three segments are 328.8 or 31% for Volume, 709 or 68% for price, and 11.4 or 1% "other" to equal 1049.2 for the subtotal, minus 170.0 in cost to equal 879.2 or 100% of the total gross margin increase in the year 2007, a number mentioned in part one.

So, what do all these numbers tell us? Among other things, the curious fact that in the year 2007, the primary driver of the Potash segment increase was attributed to Volume not Price. Yet, all the big, bad Potash bears and bulls (I might add) have been telling us all along, that it's all about the price of Potash, while the volumes of Potash in 2007 have never even been mentioned! Simply amazing. What do these Potash bears and bulls eat for breakfast? Does anyone got a handle on that? The big price driven increases, once again never mentioned, were in Nitrogen and Phosphates, not Potash. What happened to the big Nitrogen and Phosphate bubbles?

Comparing apples to oranges to bananas, the Potash share of the total volume increase is 65.5%, Nitrogen 26%, and Phosphates 8.5%, to equal 100%. The Potash share of the total Price increase is 28%, Nitrogen 27%, and Phosphates 45%, to equal 100%. The "other" consists of 6% to Potash, 62% to Nitrogen, and 31% to Phosphates to equal 100%. So not only did Potash volumes drive the Potash segment increases, they also drove the volume increases of the entire company. In Price, it's Phosphates that was the primary driver, for the whole company. In the "other" department, it's Nitrogen that's in the driver's seat. So what kind of a company is this anyway? All we hear about is Potash.

Please notice that the percentages in the Nitrogen segment, apples to apples, closely resemble the percentages of the whole company. That means that the Nitrogen segment's effect is "neutral" when compared to the to the whole company, and can therefore be left out, in an apples to oranges comparison. Therefore comparing Potash to Phosphates, 89% of their COMBINED volume segment increases goes to Potash, while 11% goes to Phosphates. Price increases gets divided up into 39% for Potash, and 61% for Phosphates. The "other" increases go 16% to Potash, and 84% to Phosphates. So, what is driving this company?

By taking the total amount of 879.2 in gross margin increases in the year 2007, and breaking that down into the nine different drivers you get : 1) Phosphate Price at 315.0 or 30% 2) Potash Volume at 215.6 or 20%, 3) Potash Price at 199.5 or 19% 4) Nitrogen Price at 194.5 or 19%, 5) Nitrogen Volume at 85.5 or 8% 6) Phosphate Volume at 27.7 or 3%, 7) Nitrogen "other" at 7.1, 8) Phosphate "other" 3.6, and lastly 9) Potash "other at 0.7. The last three add up to 1% to equal 100%.

In light of all this, I have just one more question to ask, and will someone please answer. Is the market pricing this stock correctly or not?

Disclosure: Author holds a long position in POT  

10.07.08 11:52
1

369 Postings, 4925 Tage sebastianmsTeil 3 - Den habt ihr hier schon drin

bout stocks:  POT      

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Late last week, the commodities saw a pullback due to the global gloom and doom theory posited by the paranoid and super risk averse. Due to this pullback, I think that a lot of the commodity names are looking very attractive right now, and I would recommend taking this opportunity to start/add to your positions in some of the big commodity names. One stock I feel is particularly attractive at these levels is Potash of Saskatchewan (POT).

POT is the world?s largest producer of fertilizer and produces 23% of the world?s supply. Interestingly enough, the company also controls 55% of the world?s unused supply, which it has strategically kept offline in order to keep fertilizer prices high. Does that tactic sound familiar? It should ? it?s what the Saudis are doing to oil. That is why I like to think of POT as the Saudi Arabia of fertilizer.

I like POT because it is a great way to play the global agriculture boom. People around the world are eating more and better. The Chinese are starting to incorporate more protein in their diets in the form of soy. As a middle class surfaces throughout the emerging markets, demand for food will increase exponentially. POT is in prime position to cash in on this demand for food.  

The global agriculture party- like the commodity boom in general ? has been going on from quite some time now. But with the most recent pullback ? from a 52 week high of 241 on June 19th to 210 today ? has created a good opportunity to jump on the bandwagon.  
Let?s Look at the Numbers

Potash is already up a lot, 163% in the last 52 weeks, but I still think there is room to run. The F P/E comes in at about 10.39 (10.78 ? 10 depending on the analyst), which is very attractive for a company that the S&P predicts will realize a CAGR of 35% over the next 3 years. This $71 billion market capitalization company also sports a 26.86 % profit margin and a healthy current ratio of 1.45.  
Why It?s Undervalued

I think POT is undervalued because of the recent pullback. I believe that the pullback is a result of some profit taking but is mainly due to a shift in expectations of global growth. There has been some recent talk of a global recession and the significant global demand destruction that will result from inflation combating central banks. While I think the global economy may slow from its recent historic steroidal growth, I in no way think that the party is over.  
Conclusion

I like the agriculture sector and I like Potash of Saskatchewan, but the stock has run up for a while now. I would buy this one on the most recent pullback, but not all at once. More likely than not we have not seen the absolute bottom for POT, but I am comfortable starting to nibble at 210.  

If you have any questions/comments/just want to tell me to go to hell ? feel free to e-mail me at domenic@domenicstrazzulla.com

Also ? never invest on someone else?s advice ? do you own research.

Disclosures:At the time of this article I have no positions, but am planning to be long POT in the near future.    

10.07.08 11:54
1

369 Postings, 4925 Tage sebastianmsUnd noch einmal

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/...fertilizer-bandwagon.aspx

Canaccord initiates fertilizer coverage, puts $425 target on Potash Corp.
Posted: July 09, 2008, 12:45 PM by Peter Koven
Mining

Well, it had to happen eventually. As the Canadian brokerages do everything in their power to get more business in the agriculture space, Canaccord Adams has initiated coverage on no less than seven fertilizer companies. Three of them are majors (Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Agrium Inc., Mosaic Co.) while the other four are juniors (Athabasca Potash Inc., MagIndustries Corp., PhosCan Chemical Corp., and Potash One Inc.)

The coverage is all coming from analyst Keith Carpenter, who is very bullish on the sector ? in fact, he has a "buy" or "speculative buy" rating on every company except Athabasca Potash, which he rates a "hold."

Put simply, Mr. Carpenter figures that the fertilizer market (specifically potash and phosphate) will be robust for "years" into the future as people in developing countries change their dietary habits. "Supply will not be able to meet the growth in demand over the next five years," he wrote in notes to clients.

If anything about Mr. Carpenter's coverage stands out, it is his ultra-bullish stance on Potash Corp. He has slapped an unimaginable price target on the stock of $425 a share! That makes him the first analyst to break the $400 barrier on Potash Corp., though a number of them are now well over $300.

"Given the production profile, our view on fertilizer pricing throughout our forecast period, the firm's low operating cost and growth profile over the same period, Potash Corp. should be accumulating significant earnings, we believe unmatched by its peers," he wrote.

Mr. Carpenter reached that price target by applying a multiple of 17 times to his earnings per share target for 2009 of $25.21.

Peter Koven  

10.07.08 20:45

29411 Postings, 5268 Tage 14051948KibbuzimKein Ratschlag natürlich, aber überleg dir das

noch mal.
Nicht mit Potash... aber von wegen kurzer Laufzeit !

Für mich kommt dieses Jahr garantiert wohl kein Optionsschein mehr ins Depot,2008 wird ausschließlich "Open End" gehandelt, das steht für mich bei allen Szenarien außer Frage,die mir so durch den Kopf gehen....
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"Ein Deutscher ist ein Mensch,der keine Lüge aussprechen kann, ohne sie selbst zu glauben"(Theodor W. Adorno)

27.01.10 06:32

26553 Postings, 4961 Tage brunnetaWeiterhin Outperform, aber Kursziel 135 USD

Die Analysten von BMO rechnen mit niedrigeren Kalipreisen als bisher erwartet.
Der geschätzte Gewinn pro Aktie wurde für 2010 und 2011 um circa 1,05 USD verringert. Grund für die neuen Schätzungen ist die Korrektur der Kalipreise in diesen beiden Jahren um jeweils 81 CAD/t bzw. 74 CAD/t nach unten.

Das Kursziel von Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan wird von BMO von 150 USD auf 135 USD reduziert. Die Analysten rechnen jedoch mit einem baldigen Ende der schlechten Lage der Kaliindustrie und raten Investoren, die aktuelle Kursschwäche für Aktienkäufe zu nutzen. Das Unternehmen wird auch weiterhin mit Outperform bewertet.

http://www.minenportal.de/
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24.03.10 11:16

26553 Postings, 4961 Tage brunnetaDas größte Pottasche-Projekt weltweit

Die weltweiten Läger für Pottasche sind nahezu aufgebraucht. Der Pottasche-Markt selbst befindet sich jedoch am Anfang einer Wachstumsspirale. Bis ins Jahr 2015 geht man von einem jährlichen Wachstum bei Kali-Dünger von 3 bis 4% aus. Vor allem veränderte Ernährungsweisen, höhere Einkommen, Bevölkerungswachstum und geringere landwirtschaftliche Anbauflächen in den aufstrebenden Wirtschafträumen Asien und Südamerika dürften den Bedarf an Kalidüngern weiter wachsen lassen. Elemental Minerals hat sich deshalb aufgemacht, ein Weltklasse-Pottasche-Vorkommen außerhalb des teuren Haupt-Produktionslandes Kanada zu entwickeln. Nun scheint man in der Republik Kongo (nicht zu verwechseln mit der politisch instabilen Demokratischen Republik Kongo) fündig geworden zu sein. Wir befragten Mark Jones und Garry Thomas nach dem Potential, dass sich in der Republik Kongo in Sachen Pottasche auftut.

http://www.rohstoff-welt.de/news/...oesste-Pottasche-Projekt-weltweit
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