biomuell : Zuviel Optimismus an den US Börsen?
Second quarter 2006: + 2.6%
Third quarter: + 1.6%
WHAT WOULD YOU EXPECT for the 4th quarter??
The estimates for the 4th quarter are 0.7%- 1%
And what would you ecpect for the first quarter 2007..?
- These figure reflect the the US economy growth (GDP groth) and they show how urgently the US economy need to lower its intersts. Another important factor that requires a soon decrease of the US interests is the immobila market - downgoing home sales which fell by 14.2% (Sept 2005-Sept 2006) = sharpest decline in residential investment since 1991. In October the decline was 17 %!
- The inflation data (-1,6 in Oct following -1,2 in Sept) indicate a lowering of the interests rate in US seems appropriate and feasible.
- same for the oil price (which has further decreased last week and which can even further decline the next weeks)
Considering all these major factors (US economy growth down, housing down, inflation & oil price down) - a (maybe even sooner than expected) decrease of US interests will come. It will be quite interested how the USD can stand against the ??.
(EU economy grows currently +2,5%)
Decreasing inflation & interests have a depressive impact on gold
2 issues why gold could rise:
- impactof downgoing housing market could hamper US consumer confidence.
Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP and direct residential investment accounts for another 5% to 6%!!!
The decrease of the US GDP is shown above - and decreasing - the INTEREST must (will) go down soon if the US want to avoid recession.
Wird spannend - ob es die US schafft, eine Rezession zu vermeiden - im Markt (Börsen) ist jedenfalls viel Optimismus !!