My notes from the Beaver Creek Mining Conference. They are in no particular order. It is missing 4 names, which I will release later this week. Note: I own all of the stocks mentioned in this post.
List of all Beaver Creek presentations https://ceo.ca/gold?45c163712e03
NexGold Mining @NexGoldMining Insiders: 30%+. Not likely to sell. Including 11% by Frank Guistra. Strategy: 200K to 400K producer within 5-years via acquisitions (North America). Goliath: 3M oz. DFS: Q1 2025. Permits: 2025 Q4. Construction: 2026: 18-24 months. PFS: $350M CAD capex for 110K oz at $1200 AISC. $940M CAD NPV at $2500 gold. Already had term sheets for debt. Will be easy to finance at $2500 gold. Exploration: 80,000 acres. Likely 4M oz deposit. No mill within 250 kilometers (toll milling opportunity). 2.2% NSR. Can buyback half. Currently valued at $15/oz. Prints as a 17-bagger at $3000 gold. GSD Rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: No red flags. If you want a bet that looks solid, then this is it.
Chesapeake Gold @Chesapeake_Gold
Metates has 19 million oz. of gold (.55 gpt), 500 million oz. of silver (15 gpt), and 4 billion lbs. of zinc. No NSRs Insiders (37%): Mgt 7%, Sun Valley 10%, Eric Sprott 13%, Alan Pangbourne (old CEO) 10%. 2024: Metallurgy completed. 2025: PFS. Begin Permitting. (previous PEA $360M capex for 15,000 tpd). 2026: DFS. 2027: Complete permitting. 18-months after PFS begins. 2028: Construction (18-month build). 2030: Production. Potentially license their heap-leach technology prior to 2030 for income. Lucy (Nevada): Another mine in the making. They will continue drilling. GSD Rating: 4/2.5/B. Not a top pick because of the time until production. Added comments: This is a very long term bet with production in 2030. This is for patient investors.
Hummingbird Resources @HUM_gold
Yanofolia open pit is a 1.8 million oz (2.5 gpt) deposit. $1600 AISC. 70K oz. 80K in 2025. Kourousa 1.2M 50K oz at $1400 Q4. Next ramp up to 100K oz at $1250. 120K in 2025. $155M debt. $45M due in Q4. Need to rollover. $85M due in 2025. 2025: 200K oz x (2500 - 1800) = $700 = $140M to $160M. Cash: $1.5M. June 2025: Should know that they are fixed. Mkt Cap should $300M+. $150M FCF x 2 = $300M. $150M FCF x 4 = $600M. Currently trading at a 1.2 FCF multiple ($98M mkt cap vs $84M FCF). Why the low multiple? Their balance sheet. They have a $45M debt payment in Q4 and only $1M in cash. Ouch. However, the bank that is owed the debt is a large shareholder and is unlikely to call the loan if they continue generating FCF at the current pace. Dugbe (4M oz at 1.5 gpt): Owned by Pasofino Gold ($60M mkt cap). Hummingbird has a 51% equity stake. Deal likely in the making, whereby Dubge is sold. They could get around $35M cash. I'm hoping the Dugbe is not sold, but the odds don't look good. This is a high-risk spec bet, but if they clean up their balance sheet by Q2 2025, they could fly. Note: They trade in London and on the OTC pink sheets in the US. I keep telling them to support the US mkt. They plan to add an OTCQB listing soon. GSD Rating: 4/2.5/B-. Risk High. Not a top pick because of the weak balance sheet. Added comments: Avoid unless you are not risk-averse and want to bet on solid gold prices and that they don't have any problems at their mines.
Gogold Resources @GoGoldResources
LRS (Los Ricos South).
Underground mine. PFS: Capex $200M to produce 8M oz (avg) over 12-years (begins at 10M oz yr) with $10 AISC. 400M NPV. My estimated mkt cap for year 1 at $50 silver: 10m oz x ($50 - $20) = $300M FCF x 10 = $3B. DFS: Due in Q4 2024. Only drilled to 400M depth. Plan to drill to 700M. Financing: 6 Term sheets. 11% at $125M to $150m. Easy to finance. Plan to stream the copper. Permits: EIS & Mine permit due in Q1 2025. Potential construction: Q2 2025. Build: 24 months: 30 months for full production. Production: 2027. LRN (Los Ricos North). Open pit, but can be mined undergound (if necessary) at the same costs at LRS. 2025: Infill drilling and PEA. 2026: DFS. Targeting same production as LRS (8M oz avg). However, it is a larger deposit. LRS and LRN have huge exploration upside with 105 known targets on 50,000 acres. After both mines are built, we can expect production to expand to 20M oz in the long term. Let's conservatively use 18M oz to estimate their future valuation at $100 silver (if they achieve 18M oz of production): 18M oz x ($100 - $25) = $1.5B FCF x 1.35B x 15 = $20B Strong insiders. Not likely to sell with so much upside potential. GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: This might be the best silver development story. I don’t see any red flags.
Tudor Gold @TUDGoldCorp Treaty Creek project. 880M Tons and growing in size (had two step out holes in 2023). 28M oz at 1.2 gpt AUEQ Indicated. Plus, 6M oz at 1.2 gpt Inferred. They own 60% = 20M oz. Insiders: 39% owned by two groups who are not selling early. A large portion of the deposit is not refactory ore, but most is. It will nearly all be mined using underground block caving, but does have a 3M oz open pit. The largest portion (CS 600) has 500M tons with excellent metallurgy). Let's do some math: 20M oz x $100/oz = $2B.
20M oz x $150/oz = $3B. GSR rating: 3/3/B+. Top Pick. Favorites List. Added comments: Not on the Top 25 list because the risk of being acquired or optioned. If I was confident they would wait for $100/oz, they would have a higher rating and be on the Top 25. But this looks like an easy 3-bagger at $3K gold.
Aftermath Silver @AftermathSilver
Berenguela project in Peru. 140M oz AG at 140 gpt. Plus, enough manganese to have 500M oz AGEQ! It also has copper and zinc. They recently had a 120-meter copper hole at 1% CU. They already have a preliminary manganese offtake agreement. The manganese is battery quality (99%) and is easily fertilizer quality (97%). Fertilizer quality is currently $500/ton. Battery quality is currently around $1500/ton. They plan to do the PEA (2025) at $1000/ton to be conservative. At fertilizer quality, they have 500M oz at 400 gpt AGEQ. Let’s estimate their market cap at $100 silver (negative AISC using manganese, copper, and zinc offsets): 5M oz AG x $100 = $500M FCF x 15 = $7.5B GSR rating: 4/3/B+. Top 25. Favorites List. Added comments: I’m not sure if they can produce 5M oz of silver (PEA has not yet been released), or if the costs would really be negative, but it makes for some interesting estimates. Manganese is rare and they have a huge deposit that also includes a lot of silver. This is one valuable deposit. If management and shareholders are patient and don’t sell, this is worth a fortune at higher silver prices.
Banyan Gold @BanyanGold
7M oz. at .6 gpt. Growing to 8M to 9M. Their target it 10M oz. 18,000 acres. A lot of drill targets. Good location in Canada (Yukon). GSR rating: 25/3/B. Added comments: This story is simple. They are valued at $6 per oz (at 8M oz, which they will find). it's silly cheap. It is low grade, but I still think it is worth at least $50 per oz, and perhaps $80 if they are patient.
Bunker Hill Mining
They are building a zinc/lead/silver mine in Idaho. Production is planned for Q1 2025. It's a small resource of only about 14M tons, however they think they can find 150M oz of AGEQ. In 1991, a study identified 59M oz at 11 opt based on historical drill results. It has 160 kilometers of tunnels on 28 levels. The Bunker Hill mine is famous and stopped mining in 1980. It operated for over 50 years. They think they can find 150 million oz (10+ opt) AGEQ, including lead and zinc. This is really a base metals mine, with only 1 opt silver. It's a high-grade zinc mine with 5% ZN and 8% ZN equivalent. Let's do the math as a 2M oz silver producer at $100 silver: 2M oz x ($100 - $15) = $170M x 15 = $2.5B GSR rating: 4/2.5/B-. Added comments: This one is risky, but the upside is huge. They gave me a presentation as a zinc mine. I told them I don't care about your zinc, and showed them their valuation as a silver mine at $100 silver. The lead and zinc have enough revenue to make it a very low cash cost silver mine. If they produce 2M oz, the returns will be stunning at $100 silver. I like it a lot as a spec bet. All they need to do is keep the mine operating and wait for higher silver prices.
Honorable Mentions (random order) Andean Precious Metals @AndeanPM GSD Rating: 4/3/B. Top Pick. Comment: Trading at less than 2x FCF. Generating a lot of cash. The risk-reward looks compelling. Luca Mining @LucaMining GSD Rating: 3.5/3/B. Top Pick. Comment: They had some problems and the stock crashed. They have fixes those problems, but investors have stayed away. Trading at less than 2x FCF. The risk-reward looks compelling. Cabral Gold GSD Rating: 3/3/B. Top Pick. Comment: They have 1.5M oz of surface gold in Brazil at 1 gpt. But the story here is the exploration potential on a large property with a lot of targets. This could easily be a 3M oz deposit and could larger. My worry is that they will sell it to their neighbor G Mining. But, if they grow into a 100K oz producers, it has a lot of upside potential. i-80 Gold @i80GoldCorp GSD Rating: 3/3/B+. Top 25. Comment: I love their properties. The problem is the long wait for them to build at least 3 mines. They have 14M oz and that is growing. All they seem to do is report monster drill holes. I just hope they don't get taken out and grow into a large company. Denarius Metals @DenariusMetals GSD Rating: 3/3/B. Top Pick. Comment: i was surprised how much I liked their presentation. I almost wrote it up, but they have some work to do to build 3 mines. I like their management team and potential. I consider this company a sleeper that nobody knows about. |