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Despite Significant Drop,Yandex Shares Remain Overvalued http://seekingalpha.com/article/...op-yandex-shares-remain-overvalued Summary
The size of the Russian internet advertisement market could more than double by 2019. A structural shift to online advertisement mitigates the impact of declining ad spending overall. Google may be reducing its operations in the region leaving little to no competition for Yandex. Yandex.Market provides budding opportunity in E-commerce. The market is pricing in continued resilience to macroeconomic pressures leaving little room for error.
In the United States, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) dominates the online search business with a 67% share of online searches. In Russia, the dominant player is Yandex which handles 62% of online searches. Google entered the Russian market in 2001 and struggled initially with language barriers, only carving out 5% of the market by 2006. Google opened its first office in Russia in 2006 and by 2012 its market share grew to 25%.
In einem Search-Vergleich kommt der Verfasser zu dem Schluss,dass Yandex deutlich besser ist als Google
...Google does not surpass Yandex in search quality and in some cases lacks features which Yandex supports. Google adequately interprets the Russian language, but this in itself is not enough to merit switching from Yandex to Google.Yandex's biggest advantage is its superior ad selection.....
Data from TNS Web Index shows that 71% of the population in cities with over one million has internet access. The overall country average is dragged down by more rural areas where only 51% of the population has internet access. Approximately 90% of people age 12-34 have internet access while less than half of people 35+ have internet access. Getting the older population and those living in rural areas on the internet may prove to be more difficult than getting the young population in the cities on the internet. This explains the slowing growth of internet users in the past few years and suggests that growth will remain relatively slow in the years to come.
....The Russian ad market has been rapidly shifting money away from newspapers and magazines and toward the internet. In 2013 according to UBS estimates, ad spending in newspapers and magazines fell 2% and 10% year over year respectively while internet ad spending rose nearly 30%. Internet ad spending now represents over 20% of total ad spending in Russia. behind only TV ads which comprise approximately half of ad spending.....
While Yandex currently generates almost all of its Revenue from advertisements, there is significant option value embedded within many of the other services Yandex operates. Some of these services generate a significant amount of traffic compared to Yandex.ru. Yandex Mail, Yandex Maps, and Yandex news, all approximately generate half as much traffic as Yandex.ru. If these services are developed and monetized, they could contribute significantly to revenue and the value of the business.
Yandex Market in particular provides a significant opportunity in e-commerce. According to Ecommerce Europe, e-commerce grew 47% in Russia in 2013. 32% of the adult population shopped online in 2013 and spent on average $520 (or 20,000 RUB). In total, e-commerce spending reached $17 billion (660 billion RUB). East West Digital News estimates that the market grew at least 27% in RUB terms in 2014. In the next five years, the market may expand to as much as $40-$50 billion and in the long term (10+ years) the ultimate size of the market may reach more than $100 billion.
There are significant challenges remaining in the development of e-commerce in Russia. The main obstacle is an expensive and inefficient postal system. Domestic shipments often take weeks to be delivered and cross-border shipments may even take months. If a customer is not home when a package is to be delivered, the postal service is supposed to leave a note in the mailbox. These notes are often not left, and packages end up being returned to sender without the customer even being notified. To make matters worse, the postal service charges a "storage service fee" which is added if a parcel is not picked up within a few days. One positive development for the postal service in 2014 was the percentage of packages lost or stolen fell below 1%.
...Using my assumptions, I forecast EPS can grow from 37 RUB per share in 2015 to 95 RUB per share in 2020, an increase of 256% or a CAGR of 20.75%...
According to Thomson Reuters data, Yandex's forward twelve month (FTM) PE ratio has ranged from as high as 80x to the recent lows around 20x. ..Yandex is currently trading at a PE of around 23.5x compared to an average PE of 29.7x among comparables.
Despite rapidly expanding CapEx over the next year, I expect free cash flow generation to be very strong and continue to grow impressively over the next five years.Using a WACC of 10.6% and a terminal growth rate of 3%, I calculate Yandex shares are worth 1,102 RUB per share, or $16.95 USD based on DCF valuation.....
Conclusion
Yandex is the leading player in an underpenetrated rapidly growing market and has the potential to grow its earnings for quite some time. Despite this, Yandex remains highly valued, and the potential ROI is low relative to the high levels of risk associated with investing in Russia during this unstable period. ....Even using optimistic growth assumptions and a PE of 30x, my model suggests Yandex has only 15% upside. This leaves very little margin of safety considering the high degree of volatility in the macroeconomic environment in Russia. In a downside scenario, Yandex is likely to depreciate 25-30% plus any potential negative impact from the ruble. |