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Analyst breaks down PotashCorp layoffs

http://cjme.com/story/analyst-breaks-down-potashcorp-layoffs/180475  

Why Mosaic shows that agriculture is always a cyclical business

http://marketrealist.com/2013/11/...culture-always-cyclical-business/  

 

Cuts a move to support prices, analyst says


By Scott Larson, The Leader-Post December 3, 2013 11:00 PM

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.'s decision to cut 440 jobs in the province shows it continues to support price-overvolume, says an industry analyst.

In a note to clients, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.'s Joel Jackson said he see Potash-Corp's move as negative unless potash prices recover. "Potash and phosphate prices have been declining for months," Jackson said in the note. "PotashCorp had to decide to increase potash production to take prices closer to marginal costs and attempt to close higher-cost mines, or, instead, balance the market. (PotashCorp) has chosen to balance."...

http://www.leaderpost.com/...t+prices+analyst+says/9244197/story.html  

Are Potash Corp. cuts a coded message to Russians?

Wednesday, December 4, 2013
SEAN SILCOFF

OTTAWA -- There are two ways to read Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.'s announcement on Tuesday that it is cutting 1,050 jobs and tooling down some production.

The first is that demand from developing markets has been soft and that the cuts are necessary to reduce costs. Falling corn prices in the U.S. have also hit potash pricing, which typically moves in tandem with the grain.

The second way to read Tuesday's news is more interesting. The folks from Saskatchewan may be sending their Slavic rivals a message: "Pay attention to what we've done today. We want to end this little war we've been having, and so should you. Then we can return to normal, and get back to minting fat profits."

Remember that potash is predominantly mined in two areas of the world with massive subterranean deposits - Saskatchewan and a region spread out over the former Soviet Union. The three miners in Saskatchewan - Potash Corp., Mosaic and Agrium - have sold overseas for years through their jointly owned marketing organization, Canpotex, while Russian producer OAO Uralkali and Belaruskali, owned by the state of Belarus, had a similar joint venture called Belarusian Potash Co., or BPC.

The two groups have acted as cartels (a charge they dispute), doing everything possible to keep prices high. In the case of Potash Corp., that has meant slowing production to a crawl and throwing people out of work at times to protect prices by keeping supply tight.

Of course, such scenarios only work when the cartels play ball. But years of flat demand, increases to capacity from new or expanded operations, growing inventories and recently declining prices have increased competitive pressures on the two groups. This past summer, Uralkali bailed from BPC and cranked up production, sacrificing price to push for greater volumes.

Since then, the predictable has happened - price wars. Potash has changed hands for as little as $270 (U.S.) per tonne in Southeast Asia, about $100 per tonne below recent spot prices as Uralkali, Belaruskali and Canpotex battled it out. Canpotex wanted to show it would not let Uralkali gain one tonne of market share without a fight, BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Joel Jackson said.

But all is not set in stone in Eastern Europe. Russian fertilizer producer UralChem is reportedly taking a 20-per-cent stake in Uralkali. The buyer's CEO is Belarussian and has ties to the President of Belarus, who is none too happy that BPC is broken. The ownership shuffle could lead to a reconciliation between the BPC partners, although how that affects the potash market "is unclear," Mr. Jackson said in a note.

With Uralkali's ownership and strategy potentially in flux, Potash Corp.'s cuts to jobs and production clearly communicate to the Russians that it will not be dragged further into a game of sacrificing price for volume. It wants to return to holding prices in line by constraining supply and hopes its counterparts in Europe will follow suit, Mr. Jackson said.

Of course, there's always the risk Potash Corp. gets neither the prices it wants nor the volume, and that Uralkali will continue to run its operations full out. A likelier outcome is that the smell of money will draw the fertilizer kings back into the cozy relationship they've enjoyed in the past for at least a little while longer.

https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/...204/RBINSIGHTPOTASH1203ATL  

 

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Schweiz Heute, 09:28
Salzmonopol
Rheinsalinen und Saline Bex vor Zusammenschluss
Im Salzhandel herrschen teilweise noch Regeln aus dem Mittelalter. Nun könnten die Handelsgrenzen innerhalb der Schweiz aufgehoben werden...

[url]http://mobile.nzz.ch/aktuell/schweiz/...ammenschluss-1.18197750[/url]
 

http://mobile.nzz.ch/aktuell/schweiz/...or-zusammenschluss-1.18197750  

Why Potash Corp. Continues To Cut Production And Jobs
Dec 4 2013, 16:01 | by The Mays Report | about: POT
By G C Mays


http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1876001  

Potash Corp"s job cuts a symptom of poor fertilizer demand, high supply

The layoffs and production cuts announced by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. illustrate a key problem with the fertilizer sector: there has been zero potash demand growth for the last six years, while supply has been growing.

The demand picture is slightly better in both phosphate and nitrogen, but they have been very slow as well. Prices for all three fertilizer nutrients have fallen sharply since the start of 2012, which forced Potash Corp. into the cutbacks.

"From 1960 to 2007, potash industry [demand] grew at an average rate of 3 to 3.5%. Since 2007, we"ve been flat to slightly down. That"s six years of no growth, which is unprecedented," Bill Doyle, Potash Corp."s chief executive, said in an interview. He blames the weakness on after-effects from the 2008 recession, which took a severe toll on fertilizer demand in emerging economies.

...

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/03/...r-demand-high-supply/  

 

 

 

Uralkali-Manager entscheiden über Weißrussen-Kooperation, Käufer

http://www.welt.de/newsticker/bloomberg/...n-Kooperation-Kaeufer.html  

Potash Corp sees possible bounce in its market in early 2014

Posted Dec. 4th, 2013 by Reuters New Service No Comments
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WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Dec 4 (Reuters) – A bounce in slumping potash markets is possible next year, assuming China steps back into the market and Russia and Belarus paper over differences that have disrupted the market, a senior official of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan said on Wednesday.

But if the one-time partners don’t reconcile, conditions in an already weak market could get worse, the chief financial officer of Potash Corp, Wayne Brownlee, told an investor conference.

Potash Corp, the world’s biggest fertilizer company, said on Tuesday it was cutting its workforce by 18 percent to lower costs in an oversupplied industry.

Potash prices have weakened in the past year, especially after a breakup of top exporter Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) in mid-summer prompted major buyers like China to move to the sidelines to await cheaper prices.

A supply contract in the first quarter of 2014 between China and Canpotex Ltd — the export arm of Potash Corp, Mosaic Co and Agrium Inc — would set a price floor, Brownlee said at the Citi Basic Materials conference in New York.

Indian buyers might then lock in prices with Canpotex, followed by deals in other markets.

“There’s a recipe here for a nice bounce in the first half of next year,” he said.

A rebound also hinges on whether the former partners in BPC – Russia’s Uralkali OAO and Belaruskali of Belarus – recreate their partnership. “If there’s no reconciliation between the Russians and Belarus, then the market still has the potential to dip,” Brownlee said.

Belarus-born billionaire Dmitry Mazepin and Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov recently bought stakes of 20 percent and 21.75 percent stakes, respectively, in Uralkali, leading to speculation that Uralkali would seek a reunion with Belaruskali.

“The issue we see is not so much the demand side,” Mosaic’s chief operating officer, Joc O’Rourke, said at the same conference. “In potash, yes there’s probably a bit of an oversupply … but we do see that tailing off and demand catching up fairly quickly.”

Potash Corp shares rose 0.9 percent in Toronto and 0.4 percent in New York in early afternoon trading. Mosaic shares were up 2.8 percent in New York.




http://www.producer.com/daily/...-bounce-in-its-market-in-early-2014/  

Potash Month-in-Review: Shares remarkably resilient in face of market turbulence -

Looking at the performance of Investor Intel’s potash companies for November, you can do no more than marvel how strongly they have performed. With all the concerns abounding in the potash sector — and the general equity malaise affecting mining and commodity stocks (while the rest of the market is off to the races) — to lose only an average 2.69% is remarkable.

Another sign of hope is that Russia’ “potash war” may soon be over, restoring some stability to the market.

In the past few months, not only has the potash sector been confronted by the dislocations of the Uralkali/Belaruskali bust-up, but this week we’ve had news of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan slashing its workforce by 18%, while Uralkali has been chipping away at Canpotex’s (of which Potash Corp is a member) market share in China. Then came news that the Russian-Belarus stand-off might be close to resolution. That last development might be expected to help stabilise worldwide potash prices — except for another large stone being laid on top of the wall of worry: the prospect now of food prices falling and farmer spending on fertilizer (again) being squeezed.

The figures in the chart below speak for themselves. Two Investor Intel sponsors — EPM Mining Ventures and Magna Resources — actually made gains for the month.

According to the latest Scotiabank commodity report, spot potash prices continued to retreat in November following the Uralkali spat, falling to $340/tonne (FOB Vancouver), compared with $417.50 in late July. Scotiabank says the market is awaiting to see what contracts are signed by China in the first quarter of 2014, with prices possibly below the $300/tonne mark. The good news? Scotiabank says that will likely set a bottom for the market. It also expects the Uralkali/Belaruskali marketing arrangement to resume.

This follows the news that Russian fertiliser producer Uralchem will take a 20% stake in Uralkali. The key point to note here is that Uralchem’s billionaire owner, Dmitry Mzepin, hails from the Belarus capital of Minsk. He wouldn’t be making this move without the thumbs-up from the Belarus government.

Now this might be expected to end Uralkali’s plans to use its low cash costs to undercut most of the other big players, especially in the China market (as had been its intended go-it-alone strategy). But now we read in The Financial Post that the lack of potash deliveries to China by Canpotex in October shows Uralkali is squeezing Canadian potash out of this important market. The newspaper quotes CIBC World Markets indicating this shows that “Uralkali’s shift in strategy is paying off,” according to the analyst, who also noted Uralkali increased its market share in China to 73% in October, up from 26% in May and 36% in June.

The big question now: will Minsk allow a chastened Uralkali to pursue this strategy, or will it want to rein in this undercutting (which, in the long term, would be to the benefit of all the large marketing organisations)?

The other loose cannon is the prices of food commodities. According to today’s The Financial Times, agricultural food prices are expected to post double digit price falls this year and next, thanks to plentiful supplies of cereals, sugar and vegetable oil, according to Australian investment bank Macquarie. While such a development is good news for political stability, especially in the Middle East and Asia, it will hurt farm incomes. Farmers skimped on fertilizer spending last time food prices dipped and, presumably, have just started replenishing depleted soils; the last thing they need is to have to cut back again on fertilizers.

In the meantime, 1,000 workers in Canada, the U.S. and Trinidad will bear the brunt of the market retreat with Potash Corp slashing that number of jobs.

And here’s the next big question: what will be going through all those corporate minds at BHP Billiton with some big decisions to be made on the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan?

- See more at: http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-intel/...hash.dlA4tH6E.dpuf
 

 

""""Alles wartet nur noch auf den Ausbruch""""

lt. ntv ist "er" doch gestern schon ausgebrochen:):)

ug  

 

Ausbruch bedeutet "AUSBRUCH"....Eruption, grenzenloses Ansteigen, Blow out....

was weiß ich....???

Ich bin jetzt gerade im Plus und beginne zu weinen, wenn es wieder unter 21 fällt.
Sagt mir doch einfach alles wird gut und ich schweige ;)  

""""""Also wenn die Theorie stimmt, dann will ich die Hedgefonds bluten sehen, kann das einer bestätigen? """""

diese Theorie kann ich bestätigen! ändert aber nichts an der Tatsache, daß diese Theorie eben "nur" ein Theorie ist  -und bleibt!

gruss umbrellagirl