Ich sehe Japan nicht so positiv. Es gibt unter der Decke mittlerweile massive Probleme die immer problematischer werden. Wie in den USA werden diese Sachen offiziell nicht groß in die Analysen mitreingenommen. Die Märkte müssen ja immer steigen.
Japan Just Became the World’s New Safe Haven | But Not for the Reason You Think
Last month, Japan recorded a record ¥8 trillion in portfolio inflows into its bonds and equities. At first glance, it looked like a foreign capital surge into Japanese assets. That’s how I initially framed it too until @DarioCpx insightfully pointed out what I missed: a large share of these so-called ‘foreign’ flows were not foreign at all. They were likely Japanese institutional capital returning home through offshore entities Cayman, Singapore, Luxembourg technically classified as foreign in the balance of payments, but economically domestic. And crucially, most of that capital didn’t chase stocks. It poured into Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) a quiet vote of no confidence in global markets.
This illusion stems from how Japan’s Ministry of Finance records capital flows. Balance of payments data assigns “foreign” status to flows based on where the transaction is booked, not who owns the capital. So when Japanese insurers, pensions, or trust banks unwind U.S. assets held in a Cayman or Singapore-based fund and reallocate into JGBs, the MoF data logs it as foreign inflow even though the economic decision was made in Tokyo. What looks like international capital surging into Japan is, in many cases, Japan’s own money retreating from global risk.
For decades, Japan exported capital. Now, its institutions are pulling it back not because Japan is booming, but because the rest of the world looks fragile: U.S. long-end yields are erratic, China is politically and financially closed, and Europe is stuck in a stagflationary trap. Japan, by contrast, offers deep liquidity, policy consistency, and a dovish central bank. It’s not bullishness. It’s safety-seeking at scale.
The focus on JGBs makes perfect sense. With FX hedge costs falling, BOJ policy still accommodative, and U.S. sovereign risk rising, JGBs offer low-volatility duration in a structurally captive market. For Japanese insurers and pensions facing FX and mark-to-market losses abroad, repatriating into domestic bonds is the rational institutional choice. That’s also why USD/JPY dropped even as “foreign inflows” surged this was yen-funded capital coming home, not foreign investors piling in.
Zoom out, and the signal gets louder: Japan is becoming a “monetary Switzerland at scale” geopolitically aligned with the West, but economically neutral, under-owned, and increasingly insulated. And if Japan’s own institutions are abandoning global exposure to seek refuge at home, it says far more about what’s wrong abroad than what’s suddenly right in Tokyo.
This isn’t just about JGBs. It’s about a broader shift in global macro psychology. Capital is no longer chasing return it’s fleeing fragility, policy unpredictability, and systemic volatility. Japan, for now, is absorbing the stress. |
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