Interessantes aus den USA

bevor ich weiterhin alle möglichen Threads mit den Infos aus den USA bereichere (bzw. vollmülle) mache ich mal nen reinen Info-Thread auf!

HANDELSBLATT, Freitag, 18. Januar 2008, 19:31 Uhr
Marktbericht New York

Wall Street enttäuscht über Konjunkturpaket
Ernüchterung an der Wall Street: Die Ankündigung von Präsident George W. Bush, der US-Wirtschaft mit einem 140-Milliarden-Dollar-Konjunkturpaket unter die Arme zu greifen, hat die Börse nicht beflügelt. Der Leitindex Dow der Standardwerte notierte im Verlauf 0,5 Prozent im Minus, nachdem er zum Handelsbeginn noch im Plus gelegen hatte.

HB NEW YORK. Enttäuschung über die Details des 140-Milliarden-Dollar-Konjunkturpakets der US-Regierung zur Stützung der Wirtschaft haben die US-Börsen am Freitag ins Minus gedrückt. Es sei fraglich, ob die von Präsident George W. Bush in dem Paket angekündigten Steuersenkungen die Konjunktur nachhaltig beflügeln können, hieß es am Markt. Im frühen Handel hatten die Börsen angesichts positiver Unternehmenszahlen noch freundlich tendiert. Der Leitindex Dow der Standardwerte notierte im Verlauf 0,5 Prozent im Minus bei 12 092 Punkten. Der breiter gefasste S&P-500-Index fiel 1,02 Prozent auf 1319 Punkte. Der Index der Technologiebörse Nasdaq verlor 0,2 Prozent auf 2343 Zähler.

„Es kommt alles auf einmal, und es ist nichts, was Bestand haben wird“, sagte Owen Fitzpatrick von Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management zu dem Konjunkturpaket. „Die Märkte warten aber auf etwas, das eine längerwährende Auswirkung auf das Steuersystem haben wird.“ Bush hatte zuvor erklärt, es müsse um eine direkte und schnelle Senkung der Einkommenssteuer für Familien gehen. Steuererhöhungen in anderen Bereichen schloss er aus. Debattiert werden mitten im Wahlkampf um die Nachfolge des Republikaners auch Steueranreize für Unternehmen und eine erweiterte Arbeitslosenversicherung.

Zunächst hatten sich die Anleger vor allem erleichtert über die guten Quartalszahlen des Computerherstellers IBM und des Mischkonzerns General Electric gezeigt. Händler verwiesen aber auch auf die hohen Verluste des Vortages, die jetzt teilweise kompensiert würden. Am Donnerstag hatte der Dow-Jones-Index wegen schlechter Konjunkturdaten 2,5 Prozent verloren.

Der weltgrößte IT-Dienstleister IBM hatte am Donnerstag nach Börsenschluss einen Gewinnanstieg für 2008 um 15 bis 16 Prozent vorausgesagt. Damit übertraf IBM deutlich die Markterwartungen. Die Aktie legte daher um 1,9 Prozent auf rund 103 Dollar zu.

GE-Papiere verteuerten sich um 3,6 Prozent auf rund 34,40 Dollar. Wegen der großen Nachfrage nach Flugzeug-Triebwerken und Stromturbinen verdiente der Mischkonzern im abgelaufenen Quartal vier Prozent mehr und lag damit im Rahmen der Erwartungen. Für 2008 bestätigte der gemessen an der Marktkapitalisierung zweitgrößte US-Konzern seine Gewinnprognose.

Der Aktienkurs von Ambac Financial stieg um zwei Prozent, nachdem der angeschlagene US-Anleiheversicherer sich gegen die Ausgabe neuer Aktien entschieden hatte. Am Donnerstag hatten die Papiere von Ambac mehr als die Hälfte ihres Wertes verloren, weil die Ratingagentur Moody's drohte, dem Unternehmen möglicherweise die Top-Note für die Bonität zu entziehen.

Die Aktien von Sprint Nextel notierten dagegen 27 Prozent im Minus. Der US-Mobilfunkkonzern hatte zuvor die Streichung von etwa 4000 Arbeitsplätzen und Schließung von 125 Filialen bekanntgegeben. Sprint Nextel verliert seit längerem Boden an Konkurrenten wie AT&T und Verizon Wireless.

A long-time bull throws in the towel
Commentary: Dan Sullivan's model stock portfolio is now 100% in cash
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:32 p.m. EST Jan. 17, 2008

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Stock market bulls lost an important ally on Wednesday: Dan Sullivan is now convinced that we are in a major bear market.
Sullivan is editor of two newsletters, The Chartist and The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Sullivan has been publishing the first of these since the late 1960s, nearly 40 years ago. Very few others have been continuously editing an advisory newsletter for any where close to that long a period.
Sullivan, therefore, has seen lots of different kinds of market environments, which is why we should place more than the usual weight on what his intuition tells him. And right now, as he said in an interview Thursday afternoon, his "gut feeling" is that we're in a bear market that we will need to let "run its course."
That's Sullivan's way of saying that the decline he now expects is not likely to be a small one, either in terms of duration or magnitude of losses.
As recently as the publication date of the last issue of Sullivan's newsletter, which was in early January, he was still bullish on the stock market's primary trend. What changed in the interim?

Sullivan mentioned two major factors. The first is technical: In recent days, all of the major market averages convincingly broke below their August lows.
The second is the breakdown of the industry groups that were previously leading the market. Sullivan believes that each bull market is dominated by groups with exceptional relative strength, and that the bull market's end is often signaled when those groups lose that strength. As recently as early January, Sullivan had argued that these market leaders were still bucking the downdraft. He says that they are doing so no longer.
As a result, Sullivan has liquidated his two model stock portfolios and gone completely to cash. The last time he was in an all-cash position was in early April 2003, nearly five years ago.
Would Sullivan anticipate recommending short sales for his model portfolio? He said "no," on the grounds that it is difficult to turn a profit when shorting a stock, even when we're in a bear market. There are too many ways in which you can be "right" about the stock and still lose money, he said.
The safest place to be, for now, he said, is "cash or the equivalent."
For the record: Sullivan's newsletter is in 4th place among the services the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over the last 25 years. End of Story  

als Konjukturprogramm sind viel zu wenig, angesicht drohender 900- 1000 Milliarden $ - Verluste von Anlegern und Banken.

Ich würde sagen, ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein.


Grüße    Reiny  

White House details stimulus principles
By MarketWatch
Last update: 11:50 a.m. EST Jan. 18, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The White House released on Friday the following fact sheet on President Bush's plans to stimulate the U.S. economy:
Taking Action To Keep Our Economy Healthy
President Bush Asks Congress To Work With Him To Enact An Economic Growth Package That Bolsters
Business Investment And Consumer Spending
Today, President Bush asked Congress to work with him to enact an economic growth package as soon as possible to keep our economy growing and creating jobs. By passing an effective growth package quickly, we can provide a shot in the arm to keep our fundamentally strong economy healthy and help keep instability in the housing and financial markets from more adversely affecting the overall economy. The President has asked Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to lead the Administration's efforts to forge an agreement with Congress so that we can deliver this needed boost to our economy as quickly as possible.
Our economy has a solid foundation, but there are also areas of real concern. Our economy has seen the longest uninterrupted period of job growth on record - 52 months of job growth - but job creation has slowed recently. Consumer spending has been growing, but the housing market is declining. Business investment and exports are still rising, but the cost of imported oil has increased.
The Administration has taken several steps to shore up the housing sector, and today the President again called on Congress to pass legislation to modernize the Federal Housing Administration and enable it to provide additional assistance to struggling homeowners.
After careful consideration and discussion with Members of Congress, the President has concluded that action is needed to protect the health of the economy as a whole. The President's advisors and many outside experts expect that our economy will continue to grow over the coming year, but at a slower rate than we have enjoyed for the past few years - and there is the risk of a downturn. A growth package can help ensure that consumption and investment is sufficient to protect the health of the broader economy.
As Congress Considers A Growth Plan, Certain Principles Must Guide Its Deliberations
The growth package:
Should be big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours. A package that is about one percent of GDP would be sufficient to provide a boost to the economy.
Should be built on broad-based tax relief that will directly affect economic growth, not Federal spending that would have little immediate impact on our economy.
Should be temporary and take effect right away so we can get help to our economy when it is needed most.
Should not include any tax increases.
To Be Effective, The Growth Package Should Bolster Both Business Investment And Consumer Spending, Which Are Critical To Economic Growth
1. An effective growth package must include tax incentives for American businesses - including small businesses - to make investments in their enterprises this year. Giving them an incentive to invest now will encourage business owners to expand their operations, create new jobs, and inject new energy into our economy in the process.
2. An effective growth package must also include direct and rapid income tax relief for the American people. Americans could use this money as they see fit - to help meet their monthly bills, cover higher costs at the gas pump, or pay for other basic necessities. Letting Americans keep more of their own money should increase consumer spending and lift our economy at a time when people otherwise might spend less.

bonzen das die bush-propaganda als konjunktur-prg verkaufen will.

dat bringt nix.  

President Bush Continues To Call On Congress To Make Tax Relief Permanent

While passing a new growth package is our most pressing economic priority, Congress needs to turn next to the most important economic priority for our country - making sure the tax relief that is now in place is not taken away. The President's tax cuts are set to expire in less than three years. If Congress allows that to happen, we will see an end to many of the measures that have helped our economy grow - including the 10 percent individual income tax bracket, repeal of the Federal death tax, reductions in the marriage penalty, the expansion of the child tax credit, and reduced rates on regular income, capital gains, and dividends. This would mean that:
? A single mom with two children and $30,000 in earnings would see her taxes go up by 67 percent.
? An elderly couple with $40,000 in income would see their taxes go up by about 155 percent.
? Twenty-six million small business owners would see their taxes increase by nearly 17 percent - or about $4,000 on average.
The Administration Has Taken Steps To Help Struggling American Homeowners
In September, the President and his Administration launched a new initiative at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) called FHASecure. FHASecure expands the FHA's ability to offer refinancing by giving it the flexibility to work with homeowners who have good credit histories but cannot afford their current payments. By the end of 2008, the FHA expects this program to help more than 300,000 families refinance their homes.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson have facilitated the private-sector HOPE NOW alliance. HOPE NOW has developed a plan under which up to 1.2 million homeowners could be eligible for assistance. This plan will help subprime borrowers who can afford the current, starter rate on a subprime loan, but would not be able to make the higher payments once the interest rate goes up.
President Bush signed the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, which will help Americans avoid foreclosure by protecting families from higher taxes when they refinance their home mortgages. This Act created a three-year window for homeowners to refinance their mortgage and pay no Federal taxes on any debt forgiveness they receive.
Congress Has More Work To Do To On Measures To Help Families Stay In Their Homes
The President has called on Congress since August to complete work on responsible legislation modernizing the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). This bill will give FHA the necessary flexibility to help hundreds of thousands of additional families qualify for prime-rate financing.
Congress needs to pass legislation permitting State and local governments to help troubled borrowers by issuing tax-exempt bonds for refinancing existing home loans. Under current law, cities and States can issue tax-exempt bonds to finance new mortgages for first-time homebuyers, but States are unable to do the same for homeowners seeking to refinance.
Congress needs to pass legislation to reform Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. GSEs provide liquidity to the mortgage market that benefits millions of homeowners, and it is vital that they operate safely and soundly. The President has called on Congress to pass legislation that strengthens independent regulation of the GSEs and ensures they focus on their important housing mission.
The President strongly believes that government assistance must be responsible - the wrong answer, such as a bailout, could actually prolong the problem.
Congress Can Help Facilitate Long-Term Economic Growth By Expanding Opportunities For Trade And Investment And Maintaining Fiscal Discipline
The President has asked Congress to level the playing field for American workers and farmers by quickly approving free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea. Last month, President Bush signed legislation approving the U.S.-Peru free trade agreement, and Congress should build on this progress by approving these three remaining agreements. Congress should also reauthorize and improve the Trade Adjustment Assistance program to help workers affected by trade take advantage of this growing, dynamic economy.
President Bush remains committed to fiscal discipline and balancing the budget by 2012. The President's commitment to keeping taxes low and spending in check is helping us reach our goal of a balanced budget - the deficit in 2007 was 1.2 percent of GDP, which is lower than the average of the last 40 years.

Bond-insurer woes may trigger more write-downs
Possible loss of AAA ratings for Ambac, MBIA sparks turmoil
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:41 p.m. EST Jan. 18, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Just when you thought it was over, trouble in the $2.3 trillion bond-insurance business could trigger another wave of big write-downs from banks and brokerage firms, experts said Friday.
Leading bond insurers Ambac Financial and MBIA Inc. look increasingly likely to lose their AAA ratings. While almost unthinkable just six months ago, such concerns are also causing turmoil in the $2.5 trillion municipal-bond market.
Bond insurers agree to pay principal and interest when due in a timely manner in the event of a default -- a $2.3 trillion business that offers a credit-rating boost to municipalities and other issuers that don't have AAA ratings. Without those top ratings, their business models may be imperiled.
A more worrying consideration is that when a bond insurer is downgraded, all the securities it has guaranteed are, in theory, downgraded as well.
'The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame.'
— Tamara Kravec, Banc of America Securities
If Ambac and MBIA lose their top ratings, billions of dollars of muni bonds will be downgraded, and the guarantees that have been sold on mortgage-related securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, will lose value.
"The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame," Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.
Kravec cut her rating on Ambac and MBIA on Friday because she thinks that ratings downgrades are "highly probable" now.
Merrill Lynch & Co. took a $3.1 billion write-down on Thursday related to the firm's CDO hedges. Merrill had bought CDO guarantees from bond insurers including ACA Capital, a smaller player that's now struggling to survive. Most of the write-downs were related to ACA.
CIBC and French banking giant Credit Agricole unveiled similar write-downs in December, related to guarantees they bought from ACA. See story on ACA troubles.
But ACA is much smaller than Ambac and MBIA. If the two larger bond insurers are downgraded, banks and brokers that have bought guarantees from them may have to write-down their exposures further.
The impact on the muni-bond market may be just as big, experts said Friday.
There are $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion of muni bonds. Roughly half of those are insured by bond, or "monoline," insurers like Ambac and MBIA.
So more than $1 trillion of muni bonds are now in danger of being downgraded. That could trigger losses for muni-bond investors.
"Assuming the "monoline" insurers lose their triple-A ratings, underlying insured muni bonds could be susceptible to downgrades and downward repricing, leading to losses for muni-bond mutual funds," Michael Kim, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill, told investors in a note Friday.
Shares of big muni-bond fund managers, including Franklin Resources
have already been hit by such concerns, Kim said.
Franklin stock has slumped 22% so far this year; Eaton Vance is off 27%.
Most muni bonds insured by Ambac and MBIA are now trading as if there isn't any insurance, Richard Larkin, a municipal-trading desk analyst at JB Hanauer & Co., commented Friday.
"The market has lost all faith in bond insurance and the ratings agencies," he said. "Prices are being discounted because people wonder whether there is any value to the insurance." End of Story  

MARKET SNAPSHOT
Stocks to seek hope in tech earnings next week
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Jan. 19, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investors next week are hoping stocks will see their first weekly gains so far this year, as earnings season gets fully under way with a slew of key reports from the technology sector, which some believe could remain shielded from a U.S. slowdown.
"We have a better chance of having a neutral to slightly positive week next week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
Unlike the week just ended, the equities market won't be dominated by results from embattled financial firms. "We have a chance of hearing from other verticals in the [S&P 500 Index] where not everything is bad news," he added.
Earnings highlights from the tech sector include Apple Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. on Tuesday and Motorola Inc. and eBay Inc. on Wednesday, along with Microsoft Corp. and Sun Microsystems Inc. on Thursday.
Also, Broadcom Corp and Juniper Networks Inc. report Thursday.
For the whole spectrum of S&P 500 companies, however, earnings are expected to have slumped over 12% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2007, which would make for the worst earnings season in nearly six years, according to Thomson Financial.
The slump is mostly due to a 59% year-on-year slide in profits at financial firms, whose results were hit by bad home loans. But outside of financials, earnings are still expected to have grown close to 11% year on year.

Another bad week
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 59 points to 12,099. The S&P 500 Index fell 8 points to 1,325, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 6.9 points to 2,340.
The weekly tallies continued to paint a bleak picture for a market still worried by the impact of the credit crisis on a slumping U.S. economy.

The Dow fell 4% on the week, and is down 8.8% since the start of the year. The S&P 500, which is heavily weighed by financials, saw a weekly loss of 5.4% and is down 9.7% for year so far. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, fell 4.1% over the past week and has slumped 11.8% since the start of the year.
Economic data and massive write-downs from the likes of Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. over the past week did little to allay those concerns. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke vowed that the central bank stood ready to cut rates if necessary. But that wasn't enough for investors, who had hoped for a rate cut before the Fed's next meeting at the end of the month.
"The Dow is not far from the psychological barrier of 12,000," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. But "we're just going to continue until this market exhausts itself on the downside, unless we get some major catalyst that will reverse this."
But with the coming week fairly light in terms of economic data, "it's going to be earnings and fear of the unknown" dominating action, he commented.
Tech earnings to the rescue
An upbeat earnings report and outlook from International Business Machines Corp., which cited strong sales overseas, and from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. might set the stage for some positive action in the technology sector next week.
"There is some benefit on the tech side, which we saw with IBM Thursday and again on Friday, when technology didn't do that badly," said Paul Nolte, director of investments on Hinsdale Associates. "On a relative basis, foreign markets will grow more than in the United States, even if that's nowhere near where they were two years ago."

Among other earnings that may provide clues on the global growth outlook will be Dow components DuPont and United Technologies Corp. on Tuesday, along with Honeywell International Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. on Friday.

Other Dow component reporting next will be Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday, Pfizer Inc. on Wednesday. There's also Microsoft and AT&T Inc. on Thursday.
Away from the Dow, key bank earnings will include Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp. on Tuesday and Capital One Financial Corp. on Wednesday.
Among air carriers, United Airlines reports Tuesday, while Delta Air Lines Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. report Wednesday.
Wednesday also will bring results from embattled federal-loan provider Sallie Mae and oil major ConocoPhillips.
On Thursday, there will be results from Ford Motor Co., Xerox Corp. and Kimberly Clark Corp.

World leaders meet in Davos
The White House on Friday announced a proposal to offer businesses and consumers up to $140 billion in tax rebates to give the slumping U.S. economy a stimulus. See related story.
But the market remained unconvinced by the proposal, amid calls for the Fed to deliver a cut in interest rates before its next scheduled meeting on Jan. 29 and 30.
"We haven't solved anything. That's evidenced by comments from the Bush plan and the market's reaction to that, which was less than excited," said Hinsdale's Nolte.
Next week, world business and political leaders will congregate in Davos, Switzerland for a yearly meeting meant to address global issues. The credit crisis and the weakening of the U.S. economy will likely be prominent in discussions. See story on Davos meeting.
What started as a meltdown in bad U.S. home loans has spread worldwide to financial institutions who had bought securities containing repackaged mortgages. Financial firms have grown cautious of lending money to each other, which could hurt a global economy already threatened by a U.S. slowdown. End of Story

EARNINGS OUTLOOK

Mixed outlook for eBay's results             Earnings expected to surge; core business under scope

By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch             Last update: 4:41 p.m. EST Jan. 18, 2008

                      SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The fourth quarter is typically a strong one for eBay Inc., though Wall Street is already looking ahead to the company's challenges of revamping its core online auction business         For the quarter, which includes the crucial holiday shopping season, Wall Street expects eBay       to post 62% growth in net earnings compared to the previous year.              Revenue is expected to come up about 26% from the previous year, based on current estimates. Analysts expect eBay to earn 41 cents a share on revenue of $2.14 billion for the December quarter.              Most observers expect the online auction giant to at least meet the estimates for the period. A greater question surrounds the company's outlook for 2008, which could be marred by a slowing economy as well as company-specific issues, such as investments eBay is currently making to shore up its core auction business, which has come under increasing competitive pressure from rivals such as Amazon.com       and Google , to name a few.              While business units such as PayPal, an online payment transaction processor, and Skype, an Internet-based telephony provider, are growing significantly, those services provide lower profit margins than auctions, which has some concerned about eBay's long-term profitability potential.              "There are clear risks here. EBay faces a structural margin challenge as its revenue mix shifts to lower margin segments (e.g. PayPal, Skype); and eBay has yet to discover a solution to its increasingly challenged market position in online e-retail," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a Jan. 17 note to clients.              Mahaney, however, has a buy rating on the stock, noting that "rewards are greater" given the company's efforts to improve its Web site and the stock's relatively low valuation.              Shares of eBay have shed more than one-quarter of their value since the stock peaked above the $40 mark in October.              That drop in valuation has attracted some additional support from Wall Street. Robert Peck of Bear Stearns upgraded the stock to an outperform rating on Jan. 17 on the belief that risks facing eBay "have been overly accounted for."               For 2008, analysts are currently looking for revenue of about $9 billion -- an 18% gain from the current estimates for the full 2007 year. Earnings per share for 2008 is expected to be $1.66, excluding certain charges.              Tim Boyd of American Technology Research believes eBay will reveal several changes to its fee structure when it reports results next week. He and other analysts expect the company to reduce the fees required to list a product, also called "insertion fees," and raise its overall commission on sales in an effort to make its marketplace more competitive with Amazon.              "Make no mistake about it: this is a direct attack on Amazon, and we would be shocked if Amazon does not incorporate the possibility of third-party seller reductions into its 2008 guidance," wrote Boyd in a Jan. 8 report, in which he kept a buy rating on eBay's shares.              Others are less bullish. Derek Brown of Cantor Fitzgerald kept his sell rating on the stock, noting that eBay also faces risks if it tampers too much with its fee structure.

"In our view, significant changes coming to eBay's core fee structure and searching/finding algorithms are potential long-term net positives," Brown wrote in a Jan. 11 report. "However, these adjustments could materially disrupt near-term buyer/seller behavior, which could, in turn, negatively alter eBay's GMV [gross merchandise volume] and revenue growth trajectories."

Sorting Out the New Housing Market

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By FLOYD NORRIS
Published: January 18, 2008

The shape of the new American housing market — the post-bubble market — is starting to emerge. It is one that favors the young who never owned a house and the banks that have access to cheap deposits. It may be harshest on the two coasts, where both distress and a newfound lack of mobility may be on the increase.

The ideal home buyer now — in a reverse of what was true for years — is a renter who is not burdened with a house. Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere, and he or she will need enough income to meet the monthly payments for the foreseeable future, including any increase in adjustable rates that seems probable.

But not owning a home, which may be hard to sell, is a big plus.

A year ago, having a home that had appreciated in value meant that an owner could trade up to a more expensive home. Now it means that the homeowner cannot move until the old home is sold, and that is getting more difficult.

First, the seller has to find a buyer who can get a mortgage. Second, the price has to be high enough to pay off the old mortgage and leave enough cash for the down payment on a new home. Both were taken for granted a year ago. In many markets, neither is a sure thing now.

That has created a daisy chain of delays and cancellations that has frustrated builders, homeowners and real estate agents.

Selling one house depends on the buyer’s selling another house, and that deal in turn depends on yet another sale, and so on and so on.

A failure to get a mortgage approved at any stop along the way can halt the sales of an entire series of homes.

The loss of mobility stems from the fact that homeowners with houses worth less than they owe can find themselves unable to move to accept a job in a different city.

That has been true when home prices have declined in the past. What is new this time, and could bring much greater pain and more selling pressure in many markets, is the existence of “exploding mortgages,” loans with monthly payments that will rise sharply within a year or two.

Homeowners who can refinance such mortgages are doing so now, but others — without enough income to qualify for a new mortgage or with a house not worth what is owed — may be forced to sell if they cannot get concessions from their lenders.

That threatens a downward spiral in prices, most likely in areas where prices rose the most and where unconventional mortgages were most often used. Broadly speaking, that means many areas on the East and West Coasts, plus once-hot areas like Arizona and Nevada.

Just how bad it will be depends in part on how the banks fare. Those with money to lend will be able to charge more than they formerly did — and thus get better profits.

That gives a leg up to banks that can finance themselves with low-cost deposits. Bank of America, in agreeing to acquire Countrywide Financial, purchased a mortgage distribution network that could no longer be financed as it had been. But the more home prices fall, the greater the risk that banks will have to write off more losses, resulting in steep drops in capital levels and even causing failures of financial institutions — thus reducing the supply of available loans.

That reduction of supply is particularly threatening to buyers of more expensive homes. Jumbo mortgages, those over $417,000, cannot be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises that are still buying loans. There is legislation pending to raise that limit in some parts of the country, but it appears that many such loans were so risky that they cannot be refinanced. The only way prices got so high was that people who could not afford to buy those homes were given mortgages they could not hope to repay unless home prices kept rising.

It is possible that we will see a negative spiral, in which lower prices reduce the availability of loans, and thus push prices lower. That, in turn, could leave more homeowners unable to refinance exploding mortgages, producing more forced sales that push prices even lower — and further reduce bank capital.

That would be the reverse of the cycle that prevailed until mid-2007, when easy credit made loans available even to those with dubious credit, driving up prices and, for a time, making it appear that there was little risk in mortgage lending.

At some point, the pressure on the government to step in will be intense. Its efforts so far have been mixed. Tougher lending standards ordered by regulators may only increase defaults, but efforts to persuade banks to renegotiate loans may reduce the dislocation for some homeowners.

But barring a huge government program, the housing decline may be prolonged and bitter for nearly all involved. The worse it gets, the bigger the losses for financial institutions and the less able they may be to make the loans to turn things around.

Quelle: New York Times

HANDELSBLATT, Sonntag, 20. Januar 2008, 10:14 Uhr
Börsenausblick

Rezessionssorgen lasten auf der Wall Street
Nach dem schlechtesten Start in ein Börsenjahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen hoffen die Börsianer an der Wall Street auf positive Impulse durch die Berichtssaison. "Die Geschäftsergebnisse sind das Einzige, auf das die Märkte noch setzen können", sagt ein Analyst wenig zuversichtlich. Enttäuschen die Zahlen, drohen massive Verkäufe.

Die New Yorker Wall Street: Die Nervosität steigt. Foto: Archiv
Bild vergrößernDie New Yorker Wall Street: Die Nervosität steigt. Foto: Archiv

HB NEW YORK. In der verkürzten Handelswoche legen Börsenschwergewichte wie Microsoft oder Bank of America ihre Geschäftsbilanzen vor. Am Montag bleibt die Börse wegen des Martin-Luther-King-Feiertags geschlossen. Wegen anhaltender Rezessionsängste gaben die Indizes am Freitag den vierten Tag in Folge nach. Auch das 140-Milliarden-Dollar-Konjunkturpaket von Präsident George W. Bush konnte die Anleger nicht zum Aktienkauf bewegen.

Der Leitindex Dow der Standardwerte verlor am Freitag 0,5 Prozent auf 12 099 Punkte. Der breiter gefasste S&P-500-Index gab 0,6 Prozent auf 1325 Zähler und der Index der Technologiebörse Nasdaq 0,3 Prozent auf 2340 Stellen nach. Auf Wochensicht verlor der Dow 4,02 Prozent, die Nasdaq 4,1 Prozent und der S&P 5,4 Prozent.

"Die Geschäftsergebnisse sind das Einzige, auf das die Märkte noch setzen können", sagt Richard Sparks, Analyst von Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "Bei der derzeit fragilen Marktlage müssen diese gut ausfallen, sonst könnte es zu massiven Verkäufen kommen". Neben Microsoft und der Bank of Amerika legen unter anderem auch noch Apple, Motorola, AT&T und Caterpillar die Geschäftsergebnisse des abgelaufenen Quartals vor.

Wenig Zuversicht verbreitete das Konjunkturpaket, dass US-Präsident Bush am Freitag vorstellte. Es sei fraglich, ob die angekündigten Schritte ausreichten, hieß es. Bush hatte erklärt, es müsse um eine direkte und schnelle Senkung der Einkommenssteuer für Familien gehen. Debattiert werden mitten im Wahlkampf auch Steueranreize für Unternehmen und eine erweiterte Arbeitslosenversicherung.

Grund für das Programm sind die Auswirkungen der Kreditmarktkrise. Enorme Verluste bei der größten US-Bank Citigroup und bei Merrill Lynch sowie schwache Daten zur Konjunktur hatten Befürchtungen auf eine bevorstehende Rezession der US-Wirtschaft verstärkt.

Hinweise auf die Konjunkturentwicklung dürften in der neuen Woche auch Daten über die Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe sowie über die Verkäufe bestehender Eigenheim geben.

"As a result, Sullivan has liquidated his two model stock portfolios and gone completely to cash. The last time he was in an all-cash position was in early April 2003, nearly five years ago."

Das heisst, er lag komplett falsch! Er war 100% in Cash als die Märkte eine 4 jährige Rallye begannen, na toll! Guter Kontraindikator, Mr Sullivan!!

....man sollte nicht zu schnell leute zu kontraindikatoren abstempeln. Es gibt auch so etwas wie einen lerneffekt bzw. sprichworte wie `einmal is keinmal` kommen auch von irgendwo her!

 

HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 21. Januar 2008, 08:39 Uhr
Kreditversicherer

Unsichere Versicherer
Von Torsten Riecke

Die Finanzkrise meldet sich mit einer neuen Variante. Diesmal aus dem Maschinenraum der Kreditmärkte. Dort sitzen Firmen wie MBIA, Ambac oder ACA an einer wichtigen Schaltstelle und versichern Anleihen gegen Zahlungsausfälle. Darunter befinden sich auch Baudarlehen aus Amerika, die heute keinen Penny mehr wert sind. Die Folge ist: Die Versicherer sind selbst nicht mehr sicher, ihre Bonitätsprüfer bekommen kalte Füße, und Banken müssen neue Abschreibungen vornehmen.

Jedes Mal, wenn ein Brandherd der Finanzkrise gerade unter Kontrolle scheint, lodert das Feuer an einer anderen Stelle wieder auf. Erst im Stresstest wird offenbar, dass in der modernen Finanzwelt alles mit allem zusammenhängt. Und wie wenig davon zusammenpasst. Die Kreditversicherer sind dafür ein gutes Beispiel. Niemand hat die kleine Branche bislang beachtet. Warum auch? Haben die wenigen Anbieter lange Jahre doch nur öffentliche Anleihen abgesichert. Für das geringe Ausfallrisiko erhielten sie von den Ratingagenturen eine erstklassige Bonität. Ein todsicheres, aber auch ein todlangweiliges Geschäft. Spannender und vor allem profitabler ist es, komplexe Kreditderivate zu versichern. So drängten die Kreditmaschinisten in den neuen Markt, ohne ihr Risikomanagement dem Gefahrenpotenzial der neuen Anleiheprodukte anzupassen.

Wenn den Kreditversicherern jetzt angesichts der wachsenden Zahlungsausfälle finanziell die Puste ausgeht, stürzt ein weiteres Kartenhaus der Finanzwelt zusammen. Betroffen sind zunächst die Banken, die sich auf dem amerikanischen Hypothekenmarkt engagiert haben. Vielen war dabei mulmig zumute, und so haben sie sich über sogenannte Credit Default Swaps (CDS) gegen Zahlungsausfälle abgesichert. Wenn die Versicherer jedoch jetzt nicht zahlen können, wird diese Hedging-Strategie der Banken über den Haufen geworfen.

Bill Gross, Chef des weltgrößten Anleihehändlers Pimco, schätzt, dass den Kreditversicherern Verluste von bis zu 250 Milliarden Dollar drohen, wenn die Zahlungsausfälle wieder auf ihr historisches Niveau steigen sollten. Das würde die bisherigen Verluste der Banken um mehr als das Doppelte übertreffen.

Nicht nur Hypothekendarlehen, auch andere Anleihen geraten unter Druck. Viele Pensionsfonds und Versicherungen dürfen nur Produkte mit höchster Bonität halten. Werden mit den Kreditversicherern auch die von ihnen garantierten Produkte herabgestuft, droht eine Verkaufswelle, die den gesamten Anleihemarkt erschüttern könnte.

Selbst die als todsicher gelten-den Anleihen von öffentlichen Kommunen kommen nicht ungeschoren davon. Ohne eine Versicherung mit einem Bonitätssiegel steigen die Kreditkosten von Städten und Gemeinden. Müssen die Kommunen daraufhin Investitionsprojekte aufschieben, trifft das unmittelbar die reale Wirtschaft und beschleunigt die konjunkturelle Talfahrt in den Vereinigten Staaten.

Das bisherige Geschäftsmodell der Kreditversicherer wird die Krise vermutlich ebenso wenig überleben wie die ominösen Investmentvehikel (SIV) der Banken. Für die Finanzhäuser führt kein Weg daran vorbei, dass sie in Zukunft wieder mehr Risiken auf die eigene Kappe nehmen müssen. Das bindet Kapital und schmälert die Profite. Die Talsohle der Krise ist noch nicht erreicht.

U.S. stock futures point to major decline on reopen
Markets in Europe end day in bear-market territory
By Steve Goldstein & Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:57 p.m. EST Jan. 21, 2008

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- If futures contracts traded on a day when U.S. stocks weren't even due to open are anything near accurate, then markets will be in for a major decline on Tuesday, with concerns about bond insurers and the health of financial institutions dragging markets lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract was recently off 520 points at 11,586, the Nasdaq futures were at 1773.25, down 76.25, and the Standard & Poor's 500 futures recently were at 1265, down 60.3.
Futures contract don't move in complete lockstep to the underlying indexes, but by comparison, the Dow industrials fell 382 points on Sept. 20, 2001, just days after the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers, and by 387 points on Aug. 9, 2007, shortly after the recent credit crunch first emerged.
U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. Trading resumes Tuesday.
The futures declines come on the back of big drops in European and Asian stock markets.
From developing markets like Shanghai -- down over 5% -- to established ones in Paris -- down nearly 7% -- financial institutions around the world sold off. See Europe markets. Canada and Latin America also took hits in trading on Monday.
Karen Olney, a strategist at Merrill Lynch in London, said investors simply don't trust earnings forecasts any longer.
Monday's decline means that European stocks are trading at price-to-earnings levels about 27% below their long-run average, she said, having dropped to 11.4 times trailing earnings.
"That means the markets are pricing in 80% of the fall to recession-like earnings," she said, using 1990s as a comparison.
Stocks in Europe are trading over 20% below 2007 highs, which meets technical definitions of a move into a bear market.
Stay in cash, Morgan Stanley says
Strategists at Morgan Stanley told clients on Monday to stay in cash.
"Our themes continue to be: patience, earnings recession, U.S. recession spreading global, bear market regime, don't be lured into value stocks as most are likely to be value traps, much more monetary easing. We expect flat but volatile markets just as in the 1989-92 period -- a real whipsaw environment for the market," they said.
Much of the fear stems from worries about potential ratings cuts for bond insurers, such as Ambac Financial and MBIA, AAA ratings are on thin ice.
Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded Ambac to AA from AAA after the bond insurer abandoned its plan to sell $1 billion in equity.
When a bond insurer is downgraded, all the securities it has guaranteed are, in theory, downgraded as well -- putting some $1.4 trillion of municipal bond securities at risk and more than $600 billion of structured finance securities at risk.
"These are things we have never dealt with before. We have never had the volume in credit-default swaps
The fears were lent some support when the head of France's central bank, Christian Noyer, said that French banks "clearly, like all banks, in the world still (are) in the process of marking down assets." See related story.
In Asia, markets feared an $8 billion write off from the Bank of China, one of China's big four financial institutions.
The rescue plan presented by President Bush last week in a bid to help the U.S. avoid recession also wasn't well-received by markets.
"Ambivalence over Bush's rescue plan for the U.S. economy was the trigger of this rout," said Martin Slaney, head of derivatives at GFT Global Markets.
The Japanese yen surged against rivals -- up about 2% against the euro and 1% against the U.S. dollar -- with investors trimming risk by buying back the low-yielding currency. See currencies.
WestLB of Germany added to concerns by saying it would lose about $1.5 billion this year and take a write-off of similar size.
"Market sentiment is really sour," said Gerhard Schwarz, a strategist at UniCredit Markets. "There's been more bad news from the financial sector on top of continued recession fears," he said, speaking of Monday's equity market action.  

STOCKS TO WATCH

IBM, WaMu, AMD

By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:19 p.m. EST Jan. 17, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Friday's session are IBM, Washington Mutual and AMD.
International Business Machines Corp. on Thursday said it earned $3.95 billion from continuing operations, or $2.80 a share, for its 2007 fiscal fourth quarter, compared to $3.46 billion, or $2.26 a share in the prior-year period. IBM's revenue was $28.9 billion in the latest quarter compared to $26.26 billion the year earlier. The results matched what IBM said it would report when it gave preliminary results before the market opened on Monday.
Washington Mutual Inc. on Thursday reported a $1.87 billion net loss as the lender continued to struggle in the face of a meltdown in the mortgage industry. The company lost $2.19 a share in the period after taking a $1.6 billion charge to write down the value of its home-loan business and set aside more provisions to cover the cost of housing-market weakness.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. on Thursday reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $1.772 billion, or $3.06 per share, on revenue of $1.77 billion, compared to a loss of $576 million, or $1.08 per share, on revenue of $1.773 billion for the same period last year. The loss included a $1.675 billion operating charge. Wall Street had expected the company to report revenue of $1.79 billion, according to a survey by Thomson Financial.
Watch list
NYSE Euronext late Thursday said it will acquire the American Stock Exchange for $260 million in stock, in a move to boost its overall trading volume. NYSE, the New York equities exchange, said it expects the acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter, to add to 2009 full-year earnings and expects run-rate cost savings of more than $100 million. Shareholders of Amex will also be entitled to additional NYSE shares after the sale of Amex's lower Manhattan headquarters
Xilinx Inc. on Thursday said fiscal third-quarter net income increased 18% to $103.6 million, or 35 cents a share, from $87.5 million, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier. The San Jose, Calif.-based logic chip maker's revenue rose 5.3% to $474.8 million in the period ended Dec. 29 from $450.7 million in the year-ago period, boosted by particularly strong North American and new-product sales. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected per-share earnings of 32 cents on revenue of $464 million. Xilinx expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to be down 1% to up 3% sequentially. The company said it will no longer issue mid-quarter business updates.
Texas Instruments Inc. on Thursday said Chairman Thomas Engibous will retire on April 17. The Dallas semiconductor maker said Richard Templeton will become the company's new chairman, in addition to his current position as president and chief executive.
Continental Airlines Inc. said Thursday its fourth-quarter revenue climbed more than 11% thanks to more traffic and higher fares that helped to offset a sharp increase in fuel prices. The Houston-based airline also said it earned $71 million before taxes during the December quarter, or $24 million when excluding special items. Continental said it will finalize financial results earnings after recoding a special non-cash tax charge. The company lost $4 million before taxes in the year-ago quarter. End of Story  

aus dem fenster bei den amis, trotz das alles im freiem fall ist und 80% der bevölkerung mit aktien eingedeckt ist..  

ECONOMIC PREVIEW

Existing-home sales expected to fall again

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Jan. 20, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Economic news will take most of next week off, with only a few indicators on tap and no scheduled talks from Federal Reserve officials.
Aside from the weekly numbers on jobless claims, retail sales and the like, the only numbers of any importance will come on Thursday when the National Association of Realtors releases its report on sales of existing homes in December.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch don't expect the 0.4% increase in November to last. They expect sales fell by about 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million from 5 million in November. See Economic Calendar.
It would be the lowest sales pace since the real estate trade group began tracking both single-family and condo sales in 1999.
"A slight drop could be viewed as 'good news' in the current environment, but we would not read this as a signal that the housing market is close to a trough in the current cycle," wrote Brian Bethune, an economist for Global Insight.
Few people expect any recovery in the housing market soon, although the Realtors have said they are encouraged that sales have been relatively stable for the past three months after falling 20% in the 12 months before that.
"Existing home sales were basically steady in October and November, but it is still too early to conclude that resales have found a bottom," wrote economists for RBS Greenwich Capital.
Pending home sales, which track signed sales contracts, fell 2.6% in November after rising 3.7% in October. Sales typically close one to two months after a contract is signed. Cancellations have been rising.
The decline in sales is "a function of both hesitant buyers and stubborn sellers," wrote Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros. "Potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for home prices to bottom and for financing to become more attractive." At the same time, "some sellers are hesitant to lower their offering price."
Inventories of unsold homes are expected to decline in December, which would be good news for a market that has more than 10 months' of supply sitting on the market. But the inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted, and a decline in December is typical.
Inventories have declined in three of the past four months, bucking seasonal trends. "Some progress is finally being made on reducing the stock of unsold homes," Greenwich economists said. The process has many months to go, however.

Ausblick: Bank of America und Wachovia präsentieren morgen ihr Zahlenwerk
Charlotte (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Bank of America Corp. (ISIN US0605051046/ WKN 858388), die zweitgrößte Bankgesellschaft in den USA, sowie die Wachovia Corp. (ISIN US9299031024/ WKN 868326), die viertgrößte US-Bank, werden am morgigen Dienstag ihre Zahlen für das abgelaufene vierte Quartal veröffentlichen.

Nachdem in den letzten Tagen fast täglich weitere Milliardenabschreibungen bekannt wurden, werden die beiden US-Finanzinstitute voraussichtlich ebenfalls hohe Abschreibungen veröffentlichen. Bereits im Dezember hatten beide Unternehmen angekündigt, dass sie weitere Wertberichtigungen erwarten. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt bezifferte Ken Lewis, CEO der Bank of America, den voraussichtlichen Abschreibungsbedarf auf 3,3 Mrd. Dollar. Ken Thompson, CEO von Wachovia, gab an, er erwarte Verluste von rund 1 Mrd. Dollar.

Analysten prognostizieren bei der Bank of America für das vierte Quartal 2007 derzeit ein Ergebnis von 18 Cents je Aktie bei Umsätzen von 13,24 Mrd. Dollar. Im Vorjahreszeitraum hatte das Unternehmen bei Erlösen von 18,47 Mrd. Dollar noch 1,19 Dollar verdient.

Bei Wachovia erwarten die Analysten im Schnitt einen Umsatz von 7,40 Mrd. Dollar und einen Gewinn von 33 Cents je Aktie. Im vierten Quartal 2007 hatte das Unternehmen bei Erlösen von 8,59 Mrd. Dollar ein Ergebnis von 1,19 Dollar je Aktie erzielt.

Die Aktie von Banc of America schloss am Freitag an der NYSE bei 35,97 Dollar (-2,55 Prozent). Wachovia-Papiere notierten zuletzt bei 30,80 Dollar (-4,79 Prozent). (21.01.2008/ac/n/a)

INDICATIONS
U.S. stocks futures trim losses after Fed cut
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:25 a.m. EST Jan. 22, 2008

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures moved off early lows on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve stepped in with an emergency rate cut, attempting to limit the risks of a recession after huge selling in overseas markets.
S&P 500 futures fell 35.3 points to 1,288.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 43.5 points to 1,806.00. Dow industrial futures traded 298 points lower.
The Federal Reserve cut its overnight lending rate by 75 basis points to 3.50%, the Fed announced Tuesday.
"The committee took this action in view of a weakening economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. Downside risks to growth remain. The committee met on Monday evening.
Over two days, the Nikkei 225 dropped over 10% in Tokyo, and the DAX-30 fell about 10% in Germany.
"Short-term risks are clearly to the downside," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking of the need to push a stimulus package through Congress. End of Story  

THE FED
Fed cuts rates 75 basis points in emergency move
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:27 a.m. EST Jan. 22, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hoping to prevent a market meltdown and recession, the Federal Reserve lowered its overnight lending rate by 75 basis points to 3.50% on Tuesday in a rare move between formal meetings.
It was the largest rate cut by the Fed since the early 1980s.
After a conference call Monday evening among the 10 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC released a statement saying downside risks to growth remain. One member of the committee, William Poole of St. Louis Fed, voted against the move.
"The committee took this action in view of a weakening economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. "
"While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households," the FOMC said. "Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.
"Appreciable downside risks to growth remain," the statement said. "The committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks."
By cutting rates now instead of waiting a week, the FOMC showed that it's much more concerned about the financial markets and the economy slipping into recession than it was just a month ago, when the committee cuts its target for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25%.
Over time, rate cuts should stimulate economic growth by making it cheaper to borrow money for consumption or investment. Banks typically lower their prime lending rate for their best customers in lockstep with the Fed. Many consumer and business loans, however, are based on interest rates set in competitive markets, which may or may not follow the Fed's lead.
The Fed has now lowered interest rates by 1.75 percentage points since Sept. 18.
The rate cut wasn't a complete surprise to markets that have been anticipating aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, although the timing of any intermeeting rate cut was uncertain.
On Jan. 10, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had signaled the Fed's willingness to act boldly when he said it would "remain exceptionally alert and flexible" and was prepared "to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth."
It was the first time since Sept. 17, 2001, that the Federal Open Market Committee had changed the federal funds target rate outside of a regular meeting.
The next meeting is scheduled for Jan. 29 and 30. Markets anticipate another rate cut, possibly a half-point cut, at that time.

HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 22. Januar 2008, 14:25 Uhr
Herabstufungen

Ambac-Debakel belastet europäische Versicherer
Von Rolf Benders

Die Krise bei den US-Kreditversicherern hat nun auch die europäischen Finanzwerte erreicht. Ihnen drohen nach Einschätzung von Analysten weitere Abschreibungen, weil sie in von Kreditversicherern garantierte Anleihen investiert haben.


FRANKFURT. So rechnet Unicredit-Analyst Lucio Di Geronimo aus diesem Grunde mit Wertberichtigungen von bis zu 400 Mill. Euro bei der Allianz-Tochter Dresdner Bank. Eine Sprecherin des Münchener Versicherers wollte sich dazu nicht äußern.

Hintergrund der Probleme ist das mittlerweile angeschlagene Geschäftsmodell von US-Bondversicherern (sogenannten „Monolinern“) wie Ambac oder MBIA. Diese „verleihen“ vor allem US-Kommunen gegen Geld ihre Bonitätsnoten, so dass die Städte und Gemeinden für ihre Anleihen am Kapitalmarkt geringere Zinsen zahlen müssen. Auch Verbriefungen (ABS-Anleihen) von zweitklassigen Hypotheken (Subprime) waren auf diese Weise im Volumen von 600 Mrd. Dollar versichert worden. Wegen der Ausfälle dieser Immobilienfinanzierungen braucht Ambac eigentlich frisches Kapital, das der Konzern aber derzeit am Markt nicht bekommt. Daher wurde der Monoliner von der Ratingagentur Fitch um zwei Stufen auf „AA“ herabgestuft. Branchenführer MBIA droht ein ähnliches Schicksal.

Unicredit-Analyst Di Geronimo geht nun davon aus, dass wegen des drohenden Ausfalls von Ambac bei der Dresdner Bank Abschreibungen auf das ABS-Portfolio zwischen 200 und 400 Mill. Euro anfallen könnten. Grund ist, dass nun von Ambac versicherte Papiere ein schlechteres Rating haben. Die Aktien der Allianz gehörten daher gestern mit Kursverlusten von über neun Prozent zu den größten Verlieren im Deutschen Aktienindex.

Der Chef der deutschen Finanzmarktaufsichtsbehörde BaFin, Jochen Sanio, hatte zuletzt vor einer Verschärfung der Finanzmarktkrise durch die Monoliner gewarnt. Er forderte er eine bessere internationale Zusammenarbeit der Aufsichtsbehörden. Die Branche der Kreditversicherer ist fast vollständig in New York angesiedelt und wird dort von lokalen Behörden beaufsichtigt.

HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 22. Januar 2008, 14:06 Uhr
Abschreibungen

Starker Gewinneinbruch bei der Bank of America
Die zu den führenden US-Finanzkonzernen zählende Bank of America hat nach Milliarden-Abschreibungen im Schlussquartal 2007 einen drastischen Gewinneinbruch erlitten. Das Ergebnis war deutlich schlechter als von Analysten erwartet.

                              §
HB NEW YORK. Unter dem Strich verdiente die Bank lediglich 268 Mill. Dollar nach 5,3 Mrd. Dollar im Vorjahresquartal. Allein wegen der Kreditkrise musste die Bank 5,3 Mrd. Dollar (3,7 Mrd Euro) abschreiben. Pro Aktie entsprach das einem Nettogewinn von 0,05 Dollar. Im Vorjahr hatte das Papier noch 1,16 Dollar verdient.

Selbst bei Berücksichtigung der Kreditkrise sei das Abschneiden der Bank unerfreulich, räumte Konzernchef Kenneth Lewis am Dienstag in New York ein. Für 2008 sei er vorsichtig optimistisch, obwohl das Wirtschaftswachstum in der ersten Jahreshälfte schwach bleiben werde.

Die Bank verfehlte mit ihren Ergebnissen die Erwartungen der Analysten. Sie hatten mit einem Gewinn von 0,18 Dollar je Aktie gerechnet. Die Aktie fiel im vorbörslichen Handel um mehr als fünf Prozent auf gut 34 Dollar.

Im Gesamtjahr 2007 sank der Gewinn um knapp 30 Prozent auf rund 15 Mrd. Dollar. Die Bank of America ist stärker als andere US-Großbanken auf den Heimatmarkt ausgerichtet.

Setzt jetzt nach dem ersten Zinssenkungshype die Ernüchterung ein? Die Tatsache, dass hier bereits ein weiterer Zinsschritt in Höhe von 50 Basispunkten für die reguläre Fed-Sitzung am 29./30.01. kolportiert wird zeigt wohl den wahren Zustand der US-Wirtschaft auf.