Ich habe heute TCLN nachgekauft und Rambus neu aufgenommen o.T.

 

für die coppermine cpu's gibts von intel mitlerweile
einen adapter für DIMM's, um überhaupt preislich gegen AMD
noch wettbewerbsfähig zu sein.
diese boards sind schneller als mit RIMM modulen bestückte.
da fragt man sich warum man 2000 mark mehr ausgeben soll
um langsamer zu sein.

wenn wirklich die langersehnte korrektur kommt würd ich da auf jeden
fall noch abwarten.

so long

Wulfman Jack  

Gutes Timing Käseotto!
Bei TCLN sind wieder Einstiegskurse und ich würde auch gern zukaufen. Dummerweise bin ich nicht liquide genug, selbst nachzulegen und morgen zu verkaufe verbietet sich ja von selbst.

Wieviele TCLNs hast du denn schon assimiliert, Käseotto?

Gruß von
Garion  

 

Bei dem schlechten Umfeld sollte eigentlich mal eine Korrektur kommen.
Egal. Welcome bei RAMBUS. Was ist Dein Kursziel auf 12 Monate?
Intershop hat intraday übrigens ne Punktlandung (450) hingelegt.

Al grüßt  

Schau dir den Chart von MU an, dann weisst du wo die Reise bei Speicherchips hingeht. Intel/Rambus werden hier ein Ei in den Sand setzen, wie man es schon lange nicht mehr gesehen hat. Vermutlich wird Infineon dabei auch ein paar kleine Schrammen abbekommen, wobei die Betonung auf "kleine" liegt (Beteiligung von Intel an Inf f.d. Aufbau von Rambus Produktionslinie). Rambus wird erst ab Prozessortaktungen, die weit jenseits von 1GHz liegen, interessant.

Gruss,
Schtonk  

PIII/Rambus systeme sind momentan von der performance eine absolute enttäuschung und finanziell vollkommen uninteressant. wegen technischer probleme mit den rambus RIMM's hat sich die markteinführung des coppermineprozessors um mehrere monate verzögert. das hat intel nicht nur jede menge geld gekostet sondern auch AMD ermöglicht sich im end-user bereich  fest zu etablieren.
sollte sich intel noch mal so eine nummer leisten sind die im end-user und buisiness bereich weg vom fenster.
letzes jahr noch unangefochtener monopolist der machen konnte was er wollte,
geht's dies jahr mit williamette schon um alles oder nichts.
sollte sich performance und preismäßigt bei den RIMM modulen nicht schleunigst was tun,  droht dieses abenteuer zum größen elektronikflop der letzten jahre auszuarten.

soweit ich informiert bin hat sich MS gegen AMD entschieden.
für liebhaber der X-box ist diese entwicklung vielleicht nicht ganz uninteressant.

so long

Wulfman Jack  

Allerdings stimmt es, das in die X-Box  Intel Chips eingebaut werden.
Die X-Box existiert allerdings bislang nur als Studie.
RAMBUS hat allerdings ein paar andere interessante Kooperationen (Sony), ist also nicht auf Gedeih und Verderb Intel ausgeliefert.
Das Kursniveau ist mir allerdings zu hoch. Nachkaufen würde ich bei 250 €.

Zu Schtonk: Der > 1GHZ Prozessor kommt schneller als man denkt.
Ich habe damals mit einem C64 begonnen. Dann ein XT, ein 286, 486, P133 ...

Al grüßt  

 RMBS PE 86, GROWTH 300+%, TRGT $1000
 by: tech_future200x 3/11/00 10:27 am
 Msg: 57376 of 59704
 Do your DD and DO THE MATH!! Growth and earnings are all exponential!

 Rambus has stated in their guidance that only 35% of their revenue will be
 from PC memory. 65% will come from DSPs, ASICs, HDTV, chip to chip
 interfaces, communications, etc... etc... These will all also bring in 5%
 royalties, higher than PC memory.

 The below numbers are only for Year 2000 production and assume ONLY A
 10-14% MARKET SHARE and for ONLY that 35% of revenue!! By 2002
 RMBS will have a 60-80% market share! DO THE MATH! GROWTH IS
 EXPONENTIAL!

 http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/...ID=onair/asabt/resch/90984


 Table : 128/144 Mb D-RDRAM Production
 1999 3Q : 630,000 Units
 1999 4Q : 3,450,000 Units
 2000 1Q : 10,800,000 Units (Estimate)
 2000 2Q : 24,480,000 Units (Forecast)
 =====================================
 Total 39,360,000 parts in Y2K

 2000 3Q : 53,400,000 Units (Forecast)
 2000 4Q : 81,300,000 Units (Forecast)
 2001 1Q :111,900,000 Units (Forecast)
 2001 2Q :150,000,000 Units (Forecast) projected based on similar growth
 from 2000 4Q to 2001 1Q
 =====================================
 Total:396,600,000 parts in 2001

 This is all based using the nikkei DRAM industry numbers for 2000
 production of 270 million parts. Samsung says that they will do more than
 that by end of the year (20% vs. 14%)

 I will do the calculations in 2 parts. One for Year 2000 (the year we are in and ending Sep 2000) and one for Year 2001 (ending sep 2001). Remember
 that recognition of royalties lags by a quarter. So for example, 2000 2Q units will be recognized in 2000 3Q earnings.

 So here is what RMBS will make:

 For 2000:
 39.36milx70% go to DELLx$26 per part x.02 (2% royalty)x.6(40% takes the
 tax man)= $8.59 million
 39.36milx30% the rest x$50 x.02 x.6(40% takes the tax man)=$12.41 million
 Total = 8.59+12.41=$21mil/23.8 = 88c/share

 This is just PC memory revenue. You then need to add to that the contract
 revenues and DSP/ASIC and other 5% royalty type of chip to chip revenue.
 $1/share for Y2K (sep 2000) is in the bag. That's almost double of what     the  estimates are.

 For 2001:
 396.6milx100%x$26 per part x.02 (2% royalty)x.6(40% takes the tax man)=
 $118.98 million
 Total = $123.74mil/23.8 = $5/share

 Again, this is just PC memory revenue. And for 2001, I averaged 100% of
 the total memory to $25/part assuming drop in price from $50/part by 50%.
 You then need to add to that revenue the additional contract revenues and
 by then much larger DSP/ASIC and other 5% royalty type of chip to chip
 revenue that will also be coming up. Remember that Rambus said that PC
 memory is only 35% of revenue.

 In any case, I'll be conservative and leave it at $5/share. That's 500%     growth from 2000.

 So given $5/share in 2001, what should be a good PE for a company that
 will grow even faster after 2001? 100, 200, 300? Yahoo has a PE of 1800,
 BRCM 500, BVSN 600, QCOM 300 etc...

 I'll use 200. 200*$5 = $1000/share. And there is a huge upside from those
 numbers. For example, what if the DRAM industry produces more? What if
 the SONY PS2 sells more? What if the other 65% of revenue on chip to chip
 interfaces, DSPs, ASIcs, cores, etc... that generate 5% royalties, are   more? Do the math. It's all exponential.

 So with $5+/share in 2001 and 200%-300% year over year growth you have
 minimum of $1000, much more before year 2001 ends. After all, year 2002
 earnings should be $10-15/share. RMBS year ends in Sept.

 So I give a minimum of $500-800 by year end with a lot of upside to $1000.
 Hold for a few years and you'll retire rich. Current PE with only 35% of   2001 earnings is at 28! And this takes no! account of the Hitachi lawsuit.   With a win on Hitachi, RMBS stock goes to $10,000 the next day.

 
 

erinnert mich ein bisschen an den blühenden Unsinn, den hier seit Jahr und Tag jemand bei LHS verzapft (ich erinnere die ID gerade nicht).
(Lineare) Hochrechnungen sind ok, aber ganz ohne Betrachtungen den Umfeldes kommen diese auch nicht aus! Und niemand kann derzeit eine Aussage darüber treffen, ob sich Intel/Rambus durchsetzen wird oder nicht. Es ist genausogut möglich, dass Rambus völlig floppt und in zwei Jahren kein Mensch mehr davon etwas wissen will. Immerhin ist das Konzept seit 8 Jahren bekannt und die Chipindustrie forscht längst an anderen Speicherorganisationskonzepten! Hier können täglich Meldungen aus den Labors kommen, die das ganze Kartenhaus zusammenbrechen lassen. Das ist doch der Grund dafür, warum Intel es so eilig mit Rambus hat!

Ein seriöser Analyst hätte wenigstens ein Worst-Case-Szenario hinzugestellt!

Gruss,
Schtonk  

Speicherkonzepten jenseits und abseits von Rambus arbeiten. Die Physik
kommt dabei von Infineon/IBM und der Standard von Intel.

Meiner Meinung ist Rambus nur der Lückenfüller, um derzeit AMD überhaupt
etwas entgegensetzen zu können. Intel wird beizeiten Rambus fallen lassen
wie die besagte heisse Kartoffel. Also Gewinne mitnehmen und raus !

Take care, sk  

Hier aktuelle Analysteneinschätzungen:

Strong Buy  1
Moderate Buy  1
Hold  2
Moderate Sell  0
Strong Sell  0

Infineon hat schon eine Patentschutzklage am Ar...
IBM hat seit Jahren nichts vernünftiges hinbekommen und an den Trends vorbeientwickelt.
So einfach ist es nicht. Die Verträge mit Rambus sind langfristig, außerdem haben sich viele Chiphersteller an Rambus beteiligt.
Aber solange Kritik aufkommt und der Wert skeptisch betrachtet wird,
die Stimmung mies ist und der Kurs weitersteigt, bleibe ich zumindest auf halten. Was, wenn die Rechnung aufgeht? Dann beiß ich mir in den oben genannten. Wenns schief geht... bei 100 steig ich aus, das sind dann immer noch 30% Gewinn :-)))

Al grüßt die Skeptiker, warnt aber vor einem Einstieg!!!!
 

 

um 24 % aktuell gefallen ist. KaNN keine News finden.
Von 16 auf 6 $, das hat mit der allgemeinen Kons. im Biotechbereich nichts mehr zu tun.

(Bin nicht investiert, wird aber interessant einzusteigen)

Mit Dank
TGK  

 

Meines bescheidenen Wissens nach kann ich mich erinnern, dass die ersten
SD-Ram Module laut Tests in CT und was weiss ich noch wo sonst seinerseits
miese Performance hatte und schweineteuer war (siehe Rambus).
Heute billiger als EDO-Ram und Standard.
BX-Chipsatz gleiches Spiel in grün. (Oder lags an dem Zusammenspiel der zwei?)

Fakt ist doch:
1. 1.5GHz-Prozessoren werden kommen.
2. Die brauchen neuen Speicher.
3. Die Prozessoren kommen schneller als Rambus-Alternativen.

Ergo:  Rambus wird zum Einsatz kommen.

Eines hab ich ein wenig gelernt:
Jetzt kommt die Fantasie auf Einsatz in den Kurs. Rambus-Module werden immer billiger, selbst Toshiba (warens doch, oder?) sind jetzt Lizenznehmer.
Der Kurs geht nach Norden. Wie weit weiss ich nicht. Bis es ein
PC-MASSENSPEICHER geworden ist, hat Rambus einen Riesenlauf hinter sich, und
die "Lemminge" (ich bin auch einer) steigen ein. Dann hat der Kurs vielleicht noch 100%, vielleicht mehr. Die freuen sich über ihre 100%, und
wir über die Kursralley vorher zzgl. der Verdoppelung.

Ich freue mich, mal wieder früh dabeizusein. Kommt zu selten vor.
Rückschläge muss man zum Einstieg/Zukauf nutzen, aber nicht zum Verkauf.

Grüsse, bilbo.

PS.:   Hi Al, hab ich meine Hausaufgaben gemacht?  

Company Press Release

Techniclone Clarifies Oncolym Status

TUSTIN, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20,
2000--Techniclone Corporation (NASDAQ: TCLN - news) issues a clarification to an article released by Bloomberg News Service on March 17, 2000. Bloomberg's article titled ``Techniclone Warns of Setback in Trials of Lead Drug Candidate'' contains information that the Company wants to clarify for its shareholders.

The Bloomberg article references the Company's 10-Q filed on March 15, 2000 in which the Company elaborates on development plans for the Company's Oncolym® anticancer drug. The Oncolym® development plans of marketing partner Schering, A.G. were originally released in a December 3, 1999
press release. In the December 3, 1999 press release, the Company announced Schering A.G. planned to ``initiate a new clinical study using a single dose protocol '' for Techniclone's Non-Hodgkin's B-cell lymphoma treatment. The single dose protocol will be used as a result of a thorough analysis of
Oncolym® and the Non-Hodgkin's B-cell lymphoma competitive marketplace. Oncolym® has been used to treat over 120 advanced, refractory non-Hodgkin's b-cell lymphoma patients in four prior human studies. The Company believes that a single higher dose of Oncolym® may more competitive in the marketplace.

According to Dr. John Bonfiglio, Techniclone's Interim President, ``the original trials of the drug called for patients to receive three injections, a process that proved to be too cumbersome and expensive.
The cumbersome protocol also made it difficult to recruit patients into the clinical study, thus slowing its progress. In addition, analysis of the clinical data showed that approximately 80% of the patients treated with a therapeutic dose of Oncolym® responded well to the first dose. This leads us to believe a one dose protocol may be a very effective means of using Oncolym®.''

Techniclone has completed significant improvements in the manufacturing and in conjunction with the Paul Scherer Institute has also made improvements in the radiolabeling process of Oncolym®.
Techniclone has improved the antibody manufacturing yield to at least 10-fold of what it was before.
This will substantially lower the manufacturing cost of the antibody, allowing it to be more competitive in the marketplace. Techniclone has also improved the process by which the radioactive isotope is attached to the antibody. This improvement has improved the yield and the stability of the radiolabeled product leading to a product, which can more easily be transported to the clinical site and eventually to the commercial site. ``Since a new protocol was going to be used, requiring additional clinical studies, we felt it was the perfect time to implement the new manufacturing processes for the monoclonal antibody and radiolabeling,'' stated Dr. Bonfiglio. If the new processes were implemented later in the clinical trial process, the Company would have been required to do additional studies that could have adversely affected the timelines for submission to the FDA for the drug.

Using a single dose protocol may permit the delivery of a higher dose of radiation versus the multi-dose protocol. The maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of the new single dose protocol will be determined through an 18 patient dose escalation study in which efficacy will also be examined. Once the MTD
has been discovered, 28 patients will treated at the MTD to measure efficacy as part of a Phase II/III study. Subsequent to the treatment of the 28 patients, approximately 112 patients will be treated as part of the Phase III trial to provide rigorous, statistically significant proof of the drug's efficacy. It should be noted that these patient numbers are approximate and are subject to change at the discretion of Techniclone's partner Schering AG.

Techniclone feels the changes in the protocol and the improvements made in the manufacture of Oncolym® may significantly improve the commercial potential of Oncolym®. Techniclone believes its Oncolym® product can be highly competitive with products in development or already approved since
Oncolym® targets a completely different antigen (cell marker) than any other antibodies under development. This antigen, HLA-dr, is highly specific for B-cell lymphoma and unlike the other compounds in development, it has a low affinity for normal b-cells.

According to Dr. John Bonfiglio, ``Techniclone is much than a one product company. We have developed a whole new field of cancer research called collateral targeting. These technologies therapeutically target cell structures and cell types, rather than surface cancer cells, as a means to
attack solid tumors, without causing damage to surrounding healthy tissue.'' Techniclone's most advanced collateral targeting drug is CotaraTM. Cotara(tm) is currently in a multi-center Phase II clinical study for the treatment of newly diagnosed and recurrent brain cancer patients. As stated in the Company's recent 10-Q, the Company intends to initiate several additional Cotara(tm) human clinical studies on different cancers. Cotara(tm) is a trade name for the Company's platform technology,
Tumor Necrosis Therapy (TNT), which delivers radioactive isotopes directly to solid tumors. TNT is based on the principle that all solid tumors build poor vascular networks and eventually outgrow their blood supply leading to the development of a core of dead and dying tumor cells (necrotic tissue). The existence of necrotic tissue is common to all tumor types, giving TNT the capability to target a wide variety of solid tumors. TNT is capable of delivering a wide variety of therapeutic compounds directly to the tumor site while not affecting normal tissues. The Company believes there is great benefit to targeted delivery of toxic compounds directly to the tumor site. The Company's believes there is great promise in the use of TNT as a universal solid tumor cancer treatment. The Company bases this belief
on the fact that its researchers routinely cured mice with various large human carcinomas. Subsequent human clinical studies have shown significant anti-tumor activity in a variety of human solid tumors.
The Company's long term plans are to continue to test Cotara(tm) on various tumor types.

In addition to TNT, the Company has two additional collateral targeting based platform technologies that are capable of treating most, if not all, solid tumor types. Recently, the Company has received numerous patents solidifying its leadership in the field of vascular targeting. The Company's Vascular Targeting Agent (VTA) platform technology works by selectively targeting various compounds to tumor blood vessels. Once attached to the tumor vessel, these compounds cause blood clots to form.
The resultant blood clots choke off the blood supply to the tumor causing an avalanche of cell death.
The VTAs have shown remarkable anti-tumor effects in animals evidenced by complete tumor remissions. The preclincal results of the VTA platform have been widely published, including an article in Science. The Company has recently launched an aggressive non-exclusive licensing program for the
VTA technology and has signed letters of intent with SuperGen and OxiGene.

The Company also has a platform technology named Vasopermeation Enhancement Agents (VEA).
VEAs act by delivering vasoactive compounds (drugs that cause tissues to dilate) selectively to the tumor site. Once at the tumor site, these compounds cause an increase in the blood supply at the tumor
site allowing a greater uptake of a therapeutic compound. Preclinical studies have shown VEAs can increase the uptake of drugs at the tumor site by 400%. VEAs are designed to work as a pretreatment for existing chemotherapy compounds currently on the market.

TECHNICLONE Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development, commercialization and licensing of unique technologies for the treatment of cancer, primarily based on its ``collateral targeting technologies.'' These technologies therapeutically target cell structures and cell types, rather than surface cancer cells, as a means to attack solid tumors, without causing damage to surrounding healthy tissue. The Company has three collateral technologies: Cotara(tm), Vasopermeation Enhancement Agents (VEA), and Vascular Targeting Agents (VTA). The Company
also has a direct tumor targeting agent called Oncolym® for the treatment of advanced non-Hodgkin's B-cell Lymphoma. Oncolym® has been licensed to Schering AG, Germany, which is now responsible for all existing and future Oncolym® clinical trial programs as well as marketing.

Safe Harbor Statement: This release may contain certain forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual events or results may differ from the Company's expectations as a result of risk factors discussed in Techniclone's reports on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including, but not limited to, the Company's report on Form 10K for the year ended April 30, 1999 and Form 10Q for the
quarter ended January 31, 2000.
 

 

gibt es dafür Gründe?
Sieht so aus als ob die Shorties eingedeckt sind und Gewinne mitgenommen werden. Das würde bedeuten, daß die Squeeze zu Ende ist.
Das Volumen gehandelte Volumen ist gigantisch. Mal sehen, wann wieder gekauft wird. Möglicherweise sehen wir die 250.
bilbo: Die Hausaufgaben stimmen. Keine Panik.

Al grüßt  

outperformen werden. Der Grund ist der gestiegene Bedarf.
Rambus ist technologisch top, die Marktkap. von ca. 9-10 Mrd. $ ist noch moderat.
Also Potential ist weiterhin vorhanden.

Meiner Meinung herrscht hier momentan wieder reges Rumgezocke in jede Richtung. Hier herrscht "hirnlose" Panik. Man kann sich nur wundern, wie sich viele verunsichern lassen, und sich Ihre Aktien zu Spottpreisen aus den Händen reißen lassen.
 

Tuesday March 21, 1:51 pm Eastern Time
Rambus falls on Web site report, chipmakers choppy
By Nicole Volpe

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Shares of semiconductor company Rambus Inc. (NasdaqNM:RMBS - news) spiraled downwards at the open on Tuesday then recovered somewhat as a number of factors, ranging from troubles in Taiwan to a negative Web site report, buffeted the chipmaker's volatile stock.

Shares in Rambus dove 77-1/16 to 245, and then bounced upwards to 296 later in the morning.

``This is an extremely volatile name,'' said SG Cowen analyst Drew Peck in commenting about Rambus. ``Investors are highly polarized. You have a disproportionately large number of short sellers on one side and buyers on the other,'' he added.

Rambus shares have spiked upwards to a high of 471 after the company announced a four-for-one stock split over a week ago.

The stock split followed the long-awaited availability of Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) chips using Rambus technology, which had previously been delayed due to a flaw.

Rambus shares plummeted in recent days, in part due to a pessimistic report on the Web site www.tomshardware.com, which tracks personal computing technology, Peck said.

``The impetus for the negative trend seen in recent days is due to a rather pessimistic report on a cult Web site,'' said Peck.

The posting on the tomshardware.com Web site said Rambus' lofty market position seemed precarious.

``Our tests reveal that Rambus actually degrades the performance of PCs using it when compared to identically configured systems based on vastly cheaper memory technology,'' the tomshardware.com report said.

``This is being interpreted very negatively by investors,'' said Peck. ``I hardly agree that the technology has no merit. But all it takes is some negative publicity like this to set the stock off.''

Another factor making for a choppy ride for the computer chip sector as a whole included the election of a new president in Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, who is viewed with deep suspicion by China for his past advicacy of Taiwan's independence.

Investor fears of a potential impact to semiconductor makers in Taiwan have added to the volatility typical of the sector.

PMC-Sierra Inc. (NasdaqNM:PMCS - news) shares fell 5 to 202. But Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM - news) shares were up 4-5/8 to 55-15/16.

``This volatility could be due to Taiwan although rate hikes may be having an impact,'' said Goldman, Sachs analyst Nathaniel Cohn. ``The biotech selloff last week had an impact on high-multiple stocks, so communications semiconductor companies have been seeing some choppiness.''

He said, however, business for communications semiconductor stocks, such as Broadcom and Applied Micro Circuits Corp. (NasdaqNM:AMCC - news) continue to see strong growth.

Broadcom Corp. (NasdaqNM:BRCM - news) shares fell as low as 194 after the open of trade Tuesday, down from Monday's closing price of 212-3/8, before moving up to 222-1/2 later in the morning. Applied Micro was up 5-13/16 to 242.


 

TECHNOLOGY is expected to show the second highest rate of earnings growth for both 1999
 (+32.7%) and 2000 (+41.5%). The Semiconductor/Components industry is expected to grow 2000
 earnings +52.4% as the estimate rose another +1.0% in the past month with a tremendously strong
 revisions ratio of 6.40. Forecasted 1999 earnings for the Software industry rose another +1.3% in
 the past month, bringing the 3-month change to +5.5%. The TECHNOLOGY sector is now trading at
 50 times fiscal 2000 earnings expectations, an all-time high.  

Hallo Al!
Bin am überlegen ob ich nicht doch lieber aussteigen sollte. Bin bei 150E eingestiegen. So langsam schmilzt mein ganzer Gewinn. Wo würdest Du die Bremse ziehen oder doch einfach nur "Augen zu und durch"??
 

Wann und ob die Wende kommt, kann ich schlecht sagen. Normalerweise müßte erstmal eine technische Erholung kommen, da momentan stark überverkauft.
Die Bremse würde ich an Deiner Stelle bei 200 ziehen, da die Shorties anscheinend gerade wieder etwas Oberwasser bekommen. Ich bleibe dabei, mein SL liegt bei 100, was normalerweise nicht erreicht werden dürfte. Mittelfristig (1-2 Jahre) wird RAMBUS durch Zahlen überzeugen.  

Al grüßt