Aixtron purpose of this thread

Bei Aixtron gibt es laut Bundesanzeiger nur 2 URalt Positionen aus 2012 und 2013.  https://www.bundesanzeiger.de/pub/de/nlp?2
Die Aixtron IR hat versucht die löschen zu lassen - erfolgloses Unterfangen.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

https://www.gamestar.de/artikel/china-usa-ueberwinden-differenzen-graphen-halbleiter,3407281.html

Hier setzt das Forscherteam um Walter de Heer an. Es hat Graphen auf einem Siliziumkarbid-Wafer wachsen lassen. Bei richtiger Herstellung verbindet sich das Siliziumkarbid offenbar mit dem Graphen und erhält so seine halbleitenden Eigenschaften – sogenanntes Epigraphen ist geboren.

SiC wafer und das Gerogia Institut of Technology arbeitet mit einer Black Magic Epitaxe  Anlage von Aixtron.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/real-depot-wert-aixtron-stimmung-und-aktie-drehen-auf-sic-fantasie-ungebrochen-20348126.html

Jeffries bestätigt PT 55 https://www.boersen-zeitung.de/ticker/jefferies-belaesst-aixtron-auf-buy-ziel-55-euro

https://www.dzbank-derivate.de/Magazin/anlage-impulse/aixtron-ausruester-von-chipfabriken-stehen-vor-gigantischem-auftragsboom-news697308f66c102499f8addfb740a0c5737edf44a1

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Die Black Magic Anlage ist doch ein relativ altes tool...  

1.) Habe nichts von einem neueren tool gelesen.
2.) Stand da nicht in dem Artikel, dass man Jahre gebraucht hat um das im Laborversuch realisieren zu können? 

Kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass Georgia Tech ständig in neue tools investieren kann.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

A SiC customer of Aixtron reported this morning. Stock up 9.4%.    

 

Obviously, such news do not support the equity story/share price:

https://winfuture.de/news,141052.html
https://www.thelec.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=25793

This is btw one of the reaons, why UBS recently published their rather negative stance ("delayed contribution from key technologies such as microLED"). I also found some other UBS arguments somewhat plausible which let me to reduce my AIX position and I am rather relunctant to re-up ahead of the 2024 guidance. Might be a mistake, but have been through too many awkward Aixtron-quarterly-results-share-price-reactions in my life :-)  

 

Ja, das Forum hier ist so toll und mit Experten gespickt (ernst gemeint), dass es nicht meiner aktiven Unterstützung bedarf wie andere Foren (nicht ganz so ernst gemeint). Insofern immer mit gelesen, aber wenig(er) aktiv gewesen. Aktie war ja auch ein no-brainer :-)  

A quick look of ASMI's comments on SiC in its Q4/23 presentation:

Our SiC Epi business grew strongly in 2023, comfortably meeting the revenue target of more than €130 million and with synergies already paying off
For our SiC Epi business, we expect a continued strong performance in 2024.

https://www.asm.com/media/vpngxdzc/2023_q4_investor-presentation.pdf

Aixtron's 2023 power sales (equipment only) were about 400m with ~50-60% on on SiC according to Felix in the Q1 2023 cc.  So  Aixtron's 2023 SiC  revenue should be about 2x of ASMI's LPE,  if things haven't changed drastically.   

My thesis is that the new G10-SiC has the competitive advantage and will win more customers in 2024 in Europe, China and Japan. There are many Chinese SiC projects and hopefully Aixtron could win some shares from LPE, JSG, etc. in 2024.

GaN should continue be strong in 2024.

Optoelectronics should be strong in 2024 due to recovery of smartphone market, VCSELS and edge lasers for uses in data centers (AI) as well as LIDAR.  Although they might be 2025 stories, customers need to order the equipment one year ahead.

MicroLED is still progressing so should see some growth in 2024.

Those are all mega trends and should stay on course.  

No good news unfortunately...

"ams OSRAM to re-assess its microLED strategy, to record non-cash impairment charges, to adjust its mid-term structural revenue growth target to 6% to 8%, and to improve cash flow profile

A cornerstone project underpinning its microLED strategy got unexpectedly cancelled today, triggering the company to re-assess its microLED strategy.

Non-cash impairment charges of EUR 600 to 900 million are expected based on a preliminary first estimate."

https://ams-osram.com/news/press-releases/revised-microled-strategy  

my notes from the Q&A session. Not very well structured. Sorry for that!

Why no impact by AMS Osram disaster?
no volume shipment yet, therefore no impact

Guidance 2024:
Shooting for the upper end of the guidance with the current backlog
SiC slowdown cannot be quantified

Export licenses are back to normal

Revenue Growth in 2025 bigger than 2024, SiC coming back

New SiC customers won - a few smaller and a big one
Even in dual sourcing Aix will provide the majority of tools
Market share 50-60 %

GaN: existing customers ramping up, GaN is still on the rise with wide spectrum of applications,
large companies entering GaN market with big orders -> GaN strong and cont. momentum
Market share well above 90 %

Lead times 9-12 m but with the trend to come down:
supply chain relaxing -> lowering inventory step by step
Expecting positive free cash flow

uLED: not ready yet for volume ramp-up in eh next 1-2 y, only RnD and pilot lines,
The industrie is committed to uLED. Aix is in the value chain of the big players.  

Thanks for the note rosskata!

On microLED, two announcements last week or so tell a different story from AMS.  Perhaps AMS lost the battle.

In there, Fucai is Ennostar and Huacan is HCsemitek, both are customers of Aixtron.  Hope you could get some sense based on your own translation:

https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a292150.html

https://www.ledinside.com.tw/news/20240219-39165.html  

I read this from the first link:
"Micro LEDs are the focus of future growth. , wearables, cars, and displays have all started project docking with customers, and large-size assembled TVs are expected to be mass-produced this year."

This is interesting as the statement ahs been today that no mass production on the horizon yet. And they want to mass produce assembled TVs ?! Does not fit somehow.

Taking into account also the second link the overall perception is that there is steam behind uLED and as you said AMS maybe has just lost a big customer to the competition.  

Its no secrete that AMS was working with Apple on the watches.

The above two announcements are pilot line testing the processes and markets.  

26.2525 EUR   Volumen  52504.90 EUR gekauft. Wenn das kein Vertrauensbeweis ist, was dann??

Ich bleibe im vollen Umfang investiert auch wegen der Dividende von 0.40 EUR

Gruss BigEuro

 

I have previously predicted here that the world needs about 5m 6" equivalent SiC substrates in 2025.

Expansions on SiC substrates at Wolfspeed (JPC) and by many other companies including at least 10 new projects in China substantiate that view.  The world may very well reach that ballpark number in 2025.

Every SiC substrate needs a SiC epi layer to be functional.

Aixtron sold about 50 G10-SiC or 50% of the Power revenue in 2023.  In 2024, roughly the same number of G10-SiC would be sold according to the CC, i.e. a total of 100 G10-SiC out to the world by the end of this year.

Dr. Felix reiterated 50-60% SiC market share in the CC.

If Aixtron achieves 50% market share in 2025,  G10-SiC would need to produce 2.5m 6" equivalent SiC epi wafers.  Each G10-SiC has the annual capacity of ~10,000 6" equivalent epi wafers (365X9X3). Therefore Aixtron needs to have another 150 G10-SiC out in the world in 2025 according to this optimistic view.

That is why Felix was confident about growth in 2025 during the CC.  

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/eqs-dd-aixtron-se-dr-felix-grawert-kauf-13308275

Felix hat ebenso gekauft!

Um dich mal zu zitieren, BigEuro: Ich bleibe im vollen Umfang investiert auch wegen der Dividende von 0.40 EUR. Da schließe ich mich vorbehaltslos an!

Des Weiteren wird es lt. Aussage Felix ab 2025 ja wieder deutlich bessser werden. CWL hat dieses bereits en detail beleuchtet. Insofern verkaufe ich nicht einen share - im Gegenteil.

CWL: Thank you sharing your Informations with us!

à plus

Jossy

 

You are welcome.  2025 should be a good year.  2024's midpoint of 675m is  also quite good considering 30-50 m sales in 2023 was the delayed sales from 2022 due to the export license issue.  The growth should have been 14% in that regard.  

The production of 5m SiC substrates a year is just a drop in the bucket.  The best is yet to come:

From 2023 Q3 CC:

Felix Grawert, AIXTRON
Silicon carbide is going to be a very high-volume business because in the end, we will see all combustion engines on this planet to be replaced with electric energy preferably out of renewable sources. This is a big endeavor, meaning many fabs, many tools and many hundreds of millions of wafers having to be produced. I therefore think that this is going to be a continuum of fab ramp-ups and capacity buildouts over many years to come.

 

Invest 1.05 billion! Jucan Optoelectronics (Focus Lighting) builds red and yellow light epitaxial wafer and chip projects

WitDisplay 2024-03-06 16:46

Annual output 2.4 million red and yellow light epitaxial wafers and chips project

This 1.05 Billion Yuan (133m euro) ROY LED project is probably related to what Felix indicated in the CC.  

Probably around 100 tools, either G4 or G10-ASp, if all go to Aixtron.  

Aixtron dominates the ROY MOCVD.

https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a295424.html  

Miscalculated above since the wafers are likely 4". Cannot be 100 tools since the total investment is 133m euro.  Probably closer to 50 tools and less.  

in case you follow the news you will read  that Grawert received from Aitron stock package on 06.03 for 27.03 EUR / share for the total amount of roughly 900K EUR outside the public stock market.
On the same day he sold on Xetra for 27.90 EUR / share for total 400K
Interesting.

https://www.it-times.de/news/...itsvertraglicher-vereinbarung-158806/

https://www.it-times.de/news/...n-se-dr-felix-grawert-verkauf-158807/