In a comprehensive, 97-page research note, Jefferies analyst Peter Misek ...:
He says that 3D printing could eventually take a $12.5 billion chunk out of the $22 billion U.S. toy market for its ability to recreate action figures, building sets, craft supplies and more. While some companies insist this development is around the corner — 3D Systems is trying to get a $500 consumer 3D printer on the market in time for the 2014 holiday season — Misek thinks such products won’t debut until 2015 or 2016 at the earliest.
On an even larger scale, Misek sees potential for 3D printing use in medicine, consumer goods, packaging, fashion and more. Why? For one, 3D printing can manufacture products with a mix of materials, so something that is traditionally solid metal can be analyzed and reproduced with a mix of materials, resulting in a product that is just as strong but made from less-costly goods. (In aerospace, for instance, this could be useful for engines and fan blades.) Another benefit of 3D printing is the ability for users to customize products on the fly, a technique Motorola recently began employing — with the help of 3D Systems, in fact — to customize its smartphones for consumers.
For all the potential in the industry, however, not all 3D printing companies will see the same levels of success. Jefferies rates 3D Systems and Stratasys at the top of the sector, with the former edging out the latter for supremacy.3D Systems is our top pick in the sector. DDD has the largest product breadth, the most patents, the greatest mix of high-margin materials and software, and the highest [operating margin],” Misek writes, saying that this product breadth puts the company in good position for the near and long term. His target price for 3D Systems is $102 per share, up significantly from its current share price of $78.36.
Just behind 3D Systems is Stratasys, who is second only to 3D Systems when it comes to patents pending and has a dominant market share for the smaller desktop 3D printers that run for $500 to $4,000 — a fact that poises it as the company most likely to benefit from those ‘creative consumers’ using at-home printers. Stratasys also has the most unit market share of the group, with a 57% hold on the market since its merger with a smaller 3D printing company. Jefferies’ target price for Stratasys is $155; it currently trades for $119.68 per share.......Misek’s bullish forecast for the top players in 3D-printing is not exactly going against the grain. Shares of 3D Systems, Stratasys and ExOne are up 116%, 49% and 106% (respectively) year-to-date.
Rated as “holds” were Arcam and voxeljet, which despite potentially “groundbreaking” technology are still young companies with small sales. In the third quarter of 2013, Arcam sold five printers while voxeljet sold just three. The price target on Arcam is 1,150 Swedish Krona while voxeljet received a $40 per share price target. This is but a few dollars more than its current per-share price of $37.51, but Misek says that despite voxeljet’s potential there are questions around some of its consumer loans and the stock could be extremely volatile.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2013/12/...a-major-player/? |
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