Dendreon (DNDN) gave a presentation at the BIO Conference this week, and addressed the rumors that because the final Provenge Phase III study was terminated earlier than expected because it hit the termination point of 304 deaths, Provenge is likely to fail. On the contrary, early termination probably means Provenge succeeded. In a post on the website, I explained why it was more likely than not that this was good news for Dendreon. In their BIO presentation, this was the key slide:
090210 Dendreon Presentation - Slide 18
In all the earlier trials added together, Provenge achieved a 22% risk reductions in the level of deaths at 24 months, and went on to hit 33% at 36 months. That’s a 50% or 11 percentage point improvement. In this trial, they achieved a 20% reduction at the interim peek and need to pick up only two percentage points to hit 22%–a 10% improvement. I think they’ll get it. Buy DNDN up to $8 for my $40 target after Provenge is approved.