Die Wirtschaft lebt von der Stimmung, und die ist ziemlich im Eimer. Und anders als etwa beim Golfkrieg erholt sie sich auch nicht so schnell, weil die Gefahr neuerlicher Anschläge latent bleibt.
Das sehen mittlerweile auch einige Ökonomen so ( anders als mancher Analysten-Kasper), doch sind auch diese m. E. noch zu optimistisch. Das kann man selbst an einer solchen Meldung sehen, die aber gewiss nicht für einen Anstieg der Kurse sorgen dürfte:
Wednesday October 10, 12:03 am Eastern Time
Blue Chip Paints Darker Economic Picture
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Economists in the closely watched Blue Chip survey painted a darker picture of the U.S.
economy's near-term prospects after the Sept. 11 attacks than they had before the deadly assaults that have further damaged
an already flagging economy.
Economists polled by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter cut
their forecast for growth in U.S. gross domestic product to a scant 1.1 percent this year, down from the 1.6
percent forecast just before the attacks, with the vast majority agreeing the U.S. is now in recession.
The economists predicted GDP will shrink at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the third quarter of this year and
1.1 percent in the fourth quarter.
``In the short term ... mounting layoffs, rising job insecurity and weakening wage and salary gains will dampen
consumer demand,'' the newsletter released on Wednesday stated. ''Corporate earnings will remain weak,
prolonging the collapse in business investment.''
``Even prior to the September 11th terrorist attack, U.S. economic growth had undergone a dramatic
slowdown that was comparable in some respects to that experienced during the 1990-1991 recession,'' it said.
But economists polled forecast a vigorous rebound next year as the full effects of this year's aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt, although the
newsletter said that forecast was subject to some risk.
``Analysts are putting a lot of faith in the ability of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to overcome weakened consumer and business confidence. Another
terrorist attack in the U.S., or a widening of the conflict beyond Afghanistan would imperil that view,'' Blue Chip said.
During the first quarter of 2002, GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, followed by 2.9 percent growth in the second quarter, 3.7 percent
growth in the third quarter and 4.0 percent growth in the fourth.
Still, according to the newsletter, that would leave GDP growth up just 1.5 percent for the whole year, well below what the economists polled see as the economy's
long-term potential of around 3.3 percent. |
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