hatte dazu schon einen post. lustiger weise hat sentimentrader dazu heute einen bericht verfasst.
Key Points Even if this is a bear market, current rally is below average The average rally lasted 51 days and nearly 12% Optimism is now below all other bear market rally peaks On May 19, 2008, we took a look at a typical bear market rally. From that note, the conclusion was that the rally was right on average, and if this rally was doomed to fail, then we should see weakness take hold imminently, which it happened to do. Let's revisit that table and update it, as there is at least a moderate probability that our current rally is occurring within the context of a bear market. We can see from Figure 3 that the average bear market rally since 1957 lasted 51 calendar days and gained 12%, retracing 53% of the previous decline. Looking at our current rally, we are at day 20, with a gain of 9% and a retracement of 56%. So we are well below average for duration, below average for magnitude, and slightly below average for retracement. |
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